I Predict The US/China Trade War Will Last For Months

Maybe, maybe not.

"Second, Chinese households clearly have much less ability to weather an economic downturn or drive domestic demand than is widely believed. Unless the government can strengthen the safety net and find a way to cool an overheated property market, consumers simply won’t be able to pick up the slack in a slowing Chinese economy. Both tasks are going to be difficult: China’s state pensions tab, for one, is growing at 12 percent annually as the population rapidly ages."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-08/chinese-savers-won-t-save-the-chinese-economy

 

I think that's why Trump isn't going to make much progress with China as long as the 2020 election is in doubt. Biden has already come out in favor of a pro China position, so that gives the Chinese incentive to just sit things out. Trump should probably just make the tariffs permanent, declare the trade war over, and move on. That throws the ball back into the Chinese court.

 

Make China come to the US.

Sounds like a plan.

 

Whatever it is. Clearly, it is unjustified to just assume that the US can win this trade war by being bolder, tougher and sitting it out. I know that Trump fans WANT to believe that the latter is true, but deep down they know that it is not going to be that easy. If it was that easy, China would actually not be an economic threat in the first place.

Reminds me of a certain other president who told us that the Iraq war would last weeks, at most months. How did that turn out?

 

You know that the next president can undo Trump's policies just as easily as Trump undid Obama's, if they have support in congress?

 

BOOOOM, he got all of that one!
whats it cost just in blood?.....and 4 1/2 trillion and counting! put in on a credit card and blame Obama......Yep, thats what they do......how sad

 

Sure. And it is clearly unjustified to assume that China will win this war just by being bolder, tougher and sitting it out. But yet that is what almost all here are saying, including you until this last post.

And I think the downside for China is much graver than for the US which is an advantage for us, but China has a more authoritarian government which is an advantage for them.

Sure, the US might lose, but in the long run we are totally lost if we don't try to redress the imbalances. Or at least the deplorables are lost. You, being a quantum nerd, are more insulated by the growing globalization of the economy. The deplorables in flyover country are not. Neither are the deplorables in Europe who are gaining strength in their various right wing parties.

 

I am not insulated as well. There are efforts ongoing to shift higher education to online-only platforms, in the process saving lots of instructor resources (i.e. money). Also, academic research at universities has seen a continuing assault on funding since GWB. These things make academia not the removed-from-reality ivory tower that you may think it is.

In any case, the "deplorables" (your term, not mine) should have thought about voting for the likes of Reagan and the Bushes, who were deeply involved in shifting power from the worker to the corporations doing the offshoring and outsourcing. They voted for their own demise and continue doing that same thing today. The next big thing will be job losses from automation. Both China and the US will lose in that round, but the owners of the machines will win big time. if that happens, maybe you'll be for tariffs (i.e. taxes) on the owners of the machines?

 

Yup, both the Republicans and Democrats are complicit in the globalization scheme, both being creatures of the one percent. The Democrats sold out the working class and the unions in the sixties on both immigration and free trade. There are no alternatives for the working class except to vote for their own demise, except for Trump whose main objectives are exactly those of the unions in the sixties.

I would indeed be in favor of taxes on the owners of the machines. Either that or featherbedding. And of course choke off immigration. Who needs more unskilled or semi-skilled laborers to lose their jobs to automation. Except the Democrats who can use them for the votes.

 

China has a dictatorship, they will outlast us.....

Trump will be like Carter... China which reach a deal with us once Trump is out of office - Countries do not want to deal with a idiot like Trump as Trump is a "I win" "you lose" kinda player... Trump doesn't believe in "win\win" - both sides have to save face with their people, just the reality of it - so buckle up, gonna be a long ride

Trump is also failing in Iran....

"How Jimmy Carter lost Iran"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...st-iran/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f93dda7ff398

 

Your source is over a year old and makes use of what 'will' happen to make its point.

How about trying something more current? This .... from the New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/26/opinion/china-belt-road-initiative.html

 

Yes that's very true. And assuming it's Biden or some other Democrat, it's likely that trade policy will return to the status quo ante of the Trump era. I'm anxious to get the Democratic candidates positions on trade (Biden of course is already out there with going back to pre Trump trade status). I think we're actually looking at the two political parties each doing a 180 on their former trade positions.

 

I think the next dem will try to work republicans on trade, course once Trump is gone, will they still support Tariffs?

I woudl rather get every republican on record with this question now... under Trump

 

I am sure China is well heeled enough to buy itself some tame academics.

 

You realize that you just said China will break more "rules" as a result of the US trying to make China stop breaking the "rules"? You just explained perfectly why I am good with this. Yes it will hurt our economy in the short term, but it will hurt theirs much more.

Why are the violent leftists so protective of Chinese interests? Are the Chinese bots or something?

 

I don't know what your political proclivities are, mine are reality and acceptance of same. Then I believe it is wise to accept isness and work it to favorable ends. China will do what it does (break rules) and Trump will hold little sway. I don't believe in cursing the tides. As for "violent leftists" I will leave them to your darkened imagination.

 

So you think we should just keep allowing China to close their markets to US goods, steal intellectual property, and manipulate currency with no consequences?

 

Agreed if we can also get every Democrat on record.

 

What this line of thought does not understand is that it is not so much that the Chinese government is immune from discontent, but rather that the US attack on China is open for all the world to see AND is coming not only on the economic front, but also in the form of directly military challenges to geographic areas that China feels it has sovereignty. So what you need to take into account is that the Chinese society is very old and homogeneous, unlike the US which has a relatively new society that is not homogeneous. Therefore the likely result of these public, multi-pronged attacks on Chinese sovereignty will be the general rallying of the Chinese people around the flag.

Therefore this war is likely to be long and painful for the people of both the US and China. In about three months people of the US will start to see the effects of these tariffs in the form of higher prices. It may be that larger retailers like Walmart have stocked up, and as a result they may be able to go for another year without seriously raising prices. But by this time next year, if this war is still in place, even retailers like Walmart will be forced to raise prices. Then US consumers will really start to see the effects. It will be a big drag on the economy.

 

have no issue with that

 

Yup, diversity is our weakness. I agree with you that the US is divided and not willing to sacrifice for the national good. Pay more for iPhones! The horror!

Makes you wonder though. If the US can't stomach a little trade war with China how in blazes is it going to tackle issues with real pain like reducing CO2 emissions?

 

No, you misunderstand. Diversity is not the weakness of the US, in fact it has been one of its strengths historically speaking. Also, the problem is NOT that the people are not willing to sacrifice for the national good. The problem is that political figures, such as Donald Trump have sought to gain political advantage for themselves by creating divisions and exacerbating existing divisions among the US population. Being blinded by the short term political gains they achieve, they do this without realizing that these divisions make it more difficult to achieve their wider goals of maintaining US hegemony in the world. Trump in particular tends to be impulsive and short sighted. In order to sustain and propagate war over the long term, you have to be able to unite people. You can't unite the people while at the same time dividing them for political advantage.

The other point is that this trade war is quite unnecessary. The US is not going to bring back manufacturing jobs that have gone overseas en masse in our lifetime. To achieve that with tariffs you would have to tax practically everything that is made overseas, not just goods that are made in China. That would practically destroy the economy for some time, and no one among the elites in this country is going to do that, not even Trump. The best course is therefore to strive to find some middle ground with the Chinese, not engage in this silly exercise that Trump is doing.

 

I wish someone would tell me why "diversity is strength." It seems to be a slogan that has no justification. All I see from diversity is weakness.

And I don't think the Democrats and mainstream Republicans are interested in maintaining US hegemony. They are all globalists, or rather their paymasters are all globalists.

They went overseas, en masse, in our lifetime. Why can't they come back?

 

And why wouldn't the Chinese think Trump will fold like a cheap tent, all the other presidents before him have? And we have the news media and Trump critics all working on China's behalf to try and ensure Trump does fold.

 

Explain exactly how you have been told that Trump has done that.

I really have to wonder who is feeding you all your false narratives. Contrary to your comments, manufacturing jobs are returning en masse.

Manufacturing jobs growing at fastest rate in 23 years - August 2018

Employers created 37,000 new manufacturing jobs in July, the Labor Department said Friday, the strongest gain since December and the third straight month in which factory job growth accelerated.

Even though the above story admitted that we had substantial growth in manufacturing jobs, they had plenty of critics predicting the headwinds of decline. And then we see the story below, and the critics were wrong, manufacturing is still growing beyond the expectations of "the experts."

U.S. enjoys best manufacturing jobs growth of the last 30 years - January 2019

Last year, 264,000 new manufacturing jobs were added, representing the highest number of new workers since 1988. As a percent of the total workforce, manufacturing rose for the first time since 1984.

Even now, we have a growing economy and more manufacturing jobs, but look at the below headline, the WaPo has to get in their dig of pessimism, as they secretly hope for doom and gloom. The author just cannot allow people to feel confident, not as long as Trump is president: "The good times may not last. Some economists warn"

Under Trump, the jobs boom has finally reached blue-collar workers. Will it last? - May 2019

Blue-collar jobs are growing at their fastest rate in more than 30 years, helping fuel a hiring boom in many small towns and rural areas that are strong supporters of President Trump ahead of November's midterm elections.

Jobs in goods-producing industries — mining, construction and manufacturing — grew 3.3 percent in the year preceding July, the best rate since 1984, according to a Washington Post analysis.