China has already lost the trade war

Discussion in 'Asia' started by SEAL Team V, Sep 27, 2019.

  1. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    What “major blunders” do you think trump has committed?
     
  2. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Now this line in your post makes some sense... and in fact that is how it has been for the past number of decades (you can include India and numerous other nations in group.

    The problem with the situation is not so much the Trade war with China - albeit this could have been dealt with better.

    The problem is he is doing this Trade war with China while engaging in economic warfare with most of the rest of the world - rather than doing what you suggest. And this mindless economic war that Trump is fighting with the rest of the world - has been done in the most extreme and careless way.

    He has threatened our allies and others with the "nuclear option" should they not go along with his Unilateral sanctions on Iran. Threatened to block these nations banks out of the international system of payments conducted in US dollars .. along with their international corporations.

    This is messing with the sovereignty of these nations and this has caused these nations - predictably so - to go off the ranch. Obviously the citizens of these nations are riled up as well which affects political decisions. What if some nation was to mess with our sovereignty .. how would we react. Why on earth would it be any different for other nations ?

    It used to be that we could just whisper our desires into the ear of some nation and they would come running to comply - as we were pretty much the only economic game in town. Those days are gone - yet Trump is acting like we still live in that world. This flawed analysis of the geopolitical chessboard is causing these major blunders.

    Our corporations used to be at the front of the line in the VIP section ... we are not at the back of the line and lucky to get in.

    Never in my life have I seen other nations go against the US like we are seeing - and do so with such attitude. We are getting the big "F U" every time we turn around.

    Germany Nord Stream - FU - despite major US protestation and threats.
    Italy "FU" Belt and Road initiative - despite major US Protestation
    Britain "FU" with respect to the Iran ship
    Turkey "FU" with respect to the S-400 system .. same with India - despite heavy US protestation and threats.

    This is just the tip of the iceberg - When our international corporations are bidding on contracts and trying to deals in these other nations - in a competitive environment ... what do you think is happening out there ? Blood is thicker than water .. mess with some nations sovereignty and they are not going to welcome you with open arms.

    Rather than rallying these other nations to our side - Trump has gotten every other nation against us. You can see this "anti US" movement gaining momentum .. While Trump is going around trying to club our closest allies and other nations into submission - Russia and China are out there doing deals .. and we are getting a pass.

    If Trumps goal was to leave us with something better - he would not be running massive deficits - increases - the likes of which we have not seen since Reagan - and Reaganomics was a fiscal disaster.

    Trumps goal is to get re-elected.. and one of his main tactics is the classic "Scare em and Save em" - a tactic any good salesperson knows.
    He creates a panic situation - and then resolves the situation that he created and claims " We are Winning" While there are sometimes merits to this tactic ... Trump doing this on a massive scale on the geopolitical chessboard is not producing something good.

    We are Losing - not winning. What Trump has done is causing both short term and long term economic damage.

    Did I mention the world reserve currency ? Most nations in the world were already fed up with the US dollar having sole world reserve currency status and slowly (very slowly) making some moves. This is a great privilege that the other nations of the world have given us - one we benefit from immensely.

    So what does Trump do ? He abuses that privilege in the most nasty and extreme way possible by threatening to invoke the "Nuclear Option". Nations are now working in overdrive to create an alternative to the US dollar international system of payments.

    Most folks have no idea of why having the sole world reserve currency is so important and beneficial to the US. The day when a valid competitor to the US sole reserve currency status arrives ... is the day the History books will mark as the defacto end of the US economic Empire ... FULL STOP.
     
  3. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    These are examples of how shortsighted the euros are

    They refuse to see the threat of china TO THEMSELVES unless trump asks them politely

    Thats utterly stupid
     
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  4. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What is utterly stupid is believing that Trumps turds smell like freshly cut flowers.
     
  5. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Welll - I understand it's wrong for starters.

    The U.S. trade deficit with China was $419 billion in 2018. The trade deficit exists because U.S. exports to China were only $120 billion while imports from China were $540 billion.

    https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277

    Why do you involve yourself in something you don't understand?
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2019
  6. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    I understand the fact that we have a trade deficit with china

    You do too - sort of

    So what you are arnuing about now is a mystery
     
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  7. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I think it is important to debate with facts, so I keep trying to educate you when your wrong.
    No mystery.
    What's the US trade deficit with China?
     
  8. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    $350 billion
     
  9. lpast

    lpast Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    China has to lose in a trade war with us and its simple math as to why. We have a trade deficit with them in the many billions, which means theres a lot more of their stuff coming in than our stuff going out. In a trade war with tarrifs they lose hands down.

    All the whining about the trade war comes from the heavy hitters, wall street and big corp CEOS, I say to them tough doo doo, american workers need a break not you guys. Plus the trade war wont go on forever, just until china bends over for trump and bend over they will, they by far have the most to lose
     
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  10. lpast

    lpast Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Before the tarrifs the trade deficit was 504 billion dollars
     
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  11. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    Well said

    Libs cry and moan about the wealth of the “heavy hitters” on Wall St

    But because they have a mindless hate for trump they hate the American workers who voted for trump
     
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  12. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    If it only were that simple.
    The tariffs are a double hitter on many US companies.
    Those companies manufacture in China for their own production here in the states. So you make their parts more expensive, lowering their sales of the larger more expensive product particularly in the global market. They may also sell that same product to China, but it doesn't show as an export. There are thousands of American companies doing this.
    http://www.jiesworld.com/international_corporations_in_china.htm
     
  13. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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  14. hampton86

    hampton86 Well-Known Member

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    Ummm, Enron was a corporation and China a superpower nation.

    Why not compare apples and car parts??
     
  15. hampton86

    hampton86 Well-Known Member

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    Kind of a long winded way to just admit this stuff is so far above your head
     
  16. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Your argument assumes an equal dollar for dollar parity - as if 100 Billion coming from China = 100 Billion from US to China.

    This assumption is flawed. An Iphone from China to the US - has a value add to China (on manufacturing cost - not retail) of roughly 3%.
    This is mostly from cheap labor.

    Tarriff's are not going to cause that many firings due to lower Iphone sales in the US due to Tarriffs - Tarriffs which either the US consumer pays - or Apple - a US company.

    Compare this to a US soybean - The value add is above 90%. "Simple Math" then dictates that with respect to these two items - there is a 30 times differential. Which means that 300 million in trade from China to the US is equivalent to 10 million of trade from US to China.
     
  17. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ronv understands well what this is. It is you that does not understand .. and you have demonstrated this on numerous occasions.
     
  18. lpast

    lpast Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You missed the main point of tarifs on china, actually 2 points, its the trade deficit for one and the other is to force american business to leave china which is happening. There have been corporations leave china because of the tariffs the latest one is Fitbit has moved its manufacturing out
     
  19. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure glad you cleared that up.
    I had been thinking the tariffs were to reduce the trade deficit and help manufacturing in America. I guess Trump just lied to me again.
     
  20. lpast

    lpast Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ill clear up something else youre behind on, china already approached trump they are willing to make a trade deal, go read a little
    Just like most trump haters, you expect tarifffs to work overnight, the world doesnt turn the way you want it too
     
  21. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    But, but..
    "Trade wars are good and easy to win."
    Did Spanky fib to me?

    Of course they are willing to make a deal. Why wouldn't they be? It's Trump that apparently hasn't inflicted enough pain on the American people yet.
     
  22. lpast

    lpast Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    More americans working than since the 60s, more minorities employed the lowest minority unemployment EVER. Least people on foodstamps and welfare.
    I realize all those facts piss liberals off, but yanno ya cant fake the news about trump and get away with it all the time :)
     
  23. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Yep. Spanky was riding high on Obamas recovery until he started the trade war. Now he is taking the economy into the dumpster.
     
  24. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I did not actually miss anything - as the purpose of my post was simply to point out that your 1 to 1 comparison of trade deficits was flawed - I made no comment beyond this.

    In this post you say "trade deficit" but make no comment on why this is an issue. I would hope that your thinking with respect to the trade deficit would have changed on the basis of new information presented to you in the previous post.

    Your second point is about corporations leaving China. I have heard that this is happening as well - not sure about the degree at which this is happening though - which would be interesting to know.

    While this harms China for sure - this does not really help us if these corporations are moving to another cheap labor nation such as Vietnam - rather than manufacturing in the US.

    My question - with respect to this trade war -is whether or not we are being helped or harmed. Protectionism in general is bad - but, is there some silver lining here .. if we could come out with some good trade deals and quickly end stringent protectionism (a little is ok) that could be a good thing long term.
     
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  25. Fred C Dobbs

    Fred C Dobbs Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    These companies can relocate to other parts of Asia, Africa or, best yet, Central America. Providing jobs closer to home would help cut down illegal immigration.
     

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