Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

That’s catastrophic. How do you get your head around 52 million unemployed? I think there’ll be a revolution.

 

"For safety reasons they did not want to storm the church to arrest him."

The police were not afraid of being exposed to the virus.

Sign posted on every entry door at River at Tampa Bay Church:

 

Wow. I am.... speechless.

 

It really would have apocalyptic proportions.

 

I heard that this morning on the radio. One of his staff tested positive. Mid-afternoon I saw a headline that his doctor didn't think self-quarantine was necessary (but didn't read the article).

 

They were able to contain it. We have moved on to trying to mitigate it.

Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said last week, dismissing the demand for a ban on Chinese visitors, as the United States and dozens of other countries have done. He said more people have been infected by South Koreans’ returning from China than by Chinese visitors.

 

I have noticed a few bright spots in Europe, which we don't really talk about much because they haven't really become big hotspots (and hopefully will remain that way).

1) Austria. It has a ton of cases, but not too many deaths (yet). Probably a sign of good testing. Their active cases appear to be peaking, and new cases have been coming in at a slower rate:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/austria/

2) Denmark. New cases and active case growth has been relatively flat. They hit 1,000 a while back (Mar 18 ), but now at the end of the month have only gotten up to ~2,500. The big problem with them is they've had no recoveries to speak of, so active cases continue to mount for now:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

3) Norway. New cases have been fairly linear for a while now, and deaths have not been that high yet. Probably another case of good testing as with Austria (contrast with say Brazil reporting a similar number of cases but way more deaths). Active cases still have yet to start going back down as they have no recoveries to speak of:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

Like @Statistikhengst, I don't think Europe as a whole is in any way at their peak - but these specific nations thus far appear to be doing ok by the official numbers.

 

How is that working. I have been thinking about it for a while now.

 

Yeah. I had to look up what denomination the church is, figuring it is probably one of the fringe/cult type churches to disregard the health of parishioners or the community. A Google search kept suggesting adding the word "Sign" to the search for River at Tampa Bay Church. I'm thinking, "What sign?" LOL I still don't no what philosophy they follow....except "non-denominational".

Anyway, they have a legal right to sue for interference of their 1st amendment rights and the case could make it to the Supreme Court. I can't imagine even a conservative court deciding that any church has a religious right to put the lives of their congregation or the broader community at risk during a pandemic. But who knows? There are a few very large fringe/cult organizations who call themselves "Christian churches" and the members refuse medical care....to the point of dying before getting treatment based on "religion".

 

Replay of Dr. Birx answer starts at 43:15 minute.

 

North America # of Covid19 death per million;

USA population; 330 million, death per million; 9
Total death; 2,995

Canada population; 36 million, death per million; 2
Total death; 89

Mexico population; 128 million, death per million 1
Total death; 20

USA First case; Jan 20
Canada First case; Jan 24
Mexico First case; Feb 27

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Like I said in a previous post, Trump's airport screening measures, and then, enhanced measures have only minimized the risks.

 

Pretty slippery, but I think that was a no.
But in her defense, I think she wants to show the whole picture tomorrow.

 

Yeah, If you don't do it right you can make it worse. Speaking of.

Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said last week, dismissing the demand for a ban on Chinese visitors, as the United States and dozens of other countries have done. He said more people have been infected by South Koreans’ returning from China than by Chinese visitors.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/23/world/asia/south-korea-coronavirus-moon.html

 

If you want to blame anyone for them getting the virus, blame the Bush Administration for having the policy in place to begin with. In respect to Stat, he said he wanted this to be a non-political thread, but I feel the facts have to be out there. Trump didn't sacrifice these TSA screeners.

 

I live in a region that depends heavily on tourism. My prediction two weeks ago, 80% of the businesses will go belly up in my little neck of the woods, I say 90% today.
Because of our major franchise hotels and motels, they are completely shutting down, released all their workers.
They are closed.
Period.
I am very confident about my business and keeping all of my employees, because you can only turn you underwear just that often, till it gets permanently glued to you.
But in 4 weeks the rest of the town will be a ghost town, just empty stores.

 

I expect for my area 50%, mind scrambling figures.
Great depression comes to my mind.

 

Blame political correctness. Instead of scrutinizing per terrorist profile as is in done in Israel the US decided to hire tens of thousands of TSA agents to make everyone take their shoes and belts off. Because to search the obvious persons would be racist.

 

What has that to do with this problem.
Please take your rant to another thread, or open one.

 

There would be many fewer TSA agents at risk.

 

Quote: "If you don't do it right you can make it worse"

Of course!

A common saying in the oil and gas industry; "If you don't know the well is SOUR or SWEET, then presume it is SOUR.

Thus, if you don't know the R naught of a virus, then presume it is a R naught 2.

A R naught 2 virus grows like a multi-level pyramid scheme.... one individual recruits one person, who is required to recruit 2 person, and both are required to recruit 2, thus, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and so on.

ronv, from Jan 10th to Jan 31st, returning passengers from affected countries who have subsequently tested positive, may be responsible for HALF of our total cases, if not more.

 

Good evening. Overall, new cases in a number of hotspot nations may be turning a corner. It is a positive development, although deaths still continue to mount and will do so for the forseeable future. Since we are starting to see that turn, let's take a look at active cases for a change:



I normally cover new cases and if we are starting to see them peak, but ultimately what we want to see is a peak in active cases. That is when active cases start to turn negative, and thus have reached the the apex of the curve (or peak hospital usage). While active cases are very much still increasing in pretty much every hotspot nation, the rate of increase does appear to be slowing in both Italy and Spain, a sign of new cases still outpacing closed cases, though not to quite the degree they had been. Unfortunately this is still significantly impacted by the high number of deaths in those nations, although it should be noted that there are still more recoveries per day than deaths in each nation.

Other than that, new case %'s have been in decline in a number of hotspot nations for 5+ days now. A good sign that some may be nearing or already have reached their peak. Also several in single digit %'s and France right on the edge of it.

As mentioned earlier, I would like to take a closer look at New York in specific as it is still a very significant part of the US numbers:


I have highlighted the maximum percent of US cases that New York reached back on Mar 23. That is still declining, although it is as far as I can tell much more a function of New York just doing far more tests than any other state currently (more on that later).

In addition, NYC has slowed significantly its ascent of new cases. It is still not quite flat yet as on average, new cases are moving higher, but they are not moving up very quickly. It certainly appears to be flattening, but we won't really know until after the fact.



I have also thrown together this comparison of the states with currently the highest death totals in the US thus far. It looks to me that while Washington may currently have the #2 most deaths, that is going to change very quickly. Their new deaths per day simply are not going up significantly at this time compared to New Jersey, Louisiana, and Michigan. California as well is moving down on this list. In my opinion, it certainly looks like the current big outbreaks outside of New York are NJ, LA, and MI.

Finally, I wanted to try and find out why NJ, MI, and LA suddenly had a rise in deaths yet had so few cases only a week ago. Here are the results:





I think it is pretty obvious that NY has been much better at testing than any of the other states. The extremely high % of positive tests in Michigan and New Jersey are very worrying. Given the sheer number of positives and trajectory of the death totals, both states are are going to be very close behind New York.

Note that in the previous screenshot, New York had 91K tests done by the time they were up to 200 deaths. Currently at 185 bodies, Michigan has a paltry 18K tests in comparison with a virtually identical % testing positive. That is inexcusable. Looking at purely the number of bodies and the acceleration, New Jersey and Michigan look to be maybe a week behind New York. Only time will tell if the specific measures taken in those states will help to avoid the same kind of overall totals NY looks to be facing.

LA I am very surprised at the low % of positive cases. It makes me wonder just where the distribution of those tests are. Surely they are testing New Orleans heavily? A potential positive that may indicate there will be a lower problem there than it is currently being made out unless they are just flat out testing the wrong people.

Other than that, the low % of overall positive tests in WA compared to other states (and especially the much higher test numbers) is a positive indicator that perhaps that state (and the population) took things seriously sooner. Perhaps that resident home being struck so early got people on board sooner with social distancing than other states.

As always, you can find this stuff and more I track on my sheet here.

Finally, unrelated to these numbers today, I would like to express my gratitude to everyone who has contributed to and continues to contribute to this thread in a productive apolitical manner. I know it can be difficult to fight the urge to respond to and make political barbs as we often bind our ideologies to our emotions.

It is truly inspiring to see people from different political spectrums come together to try and document as best we can the facts as they are occurring. All too often facts and statistics are taken out of context or deceptively used to make a broader political statement - to the point that I often grow depressed reading threads on PF as it tends to be rife with overt partisanship. This thread has been a rarity in its focus on facts, and for that I thank you.

 

Yeah. I laugh every time I hear a Trumper claim that stopping the Chinese from coming into the country saved us.
The fact is there were only about 8,000 Chinese a month coming to America. The day Trump announced his plan 8,000 Americans arrived from China thru only 3 of our airports.
Yet for some reason they cling to this like it was guns and bibles.

 

Have they self-isolated for 14 days "at the other end"?

Knowing what we know now, cost of isolating 8,000 Americans for 14 days "at the other end", $200 a day; $22 million VERSUS $2 trillion.