STUNNING! IHME Reduces Their Model Predictions AGAIN! -- Now Say Peak Is ON EASTER and Only 60,000 D

IMO in some peoples minds it is their last best hope to get rid of POTUS Trump in Nov. More death equals more public anger towards Trump. Less death equals a better opinion of his performance by the general population. Sounds incredibly harsh but I think that is exactly what is going on for some people.

 

Just like downplaying the danger and the deaths is being pushed by Trumpists to try to make him look better. So how about we rely on facts instead?

 

Well Thank God for Trump's strong leadership in social distancing then

 

. . . Trump was downplaying this well into March. He only started prompting social distancing after governors were enforcing it, and last I check he still hadn't issued any nation-wide orders. But there I go with silly facts again.

 

It's nearly impossible for medical people to obtain sufficient swab tests for those people who are symptomatic, how will it be possible to test every worker in the US with an antibody test? An antibody test requires a blood draw, it's not a simple swab test.

 

Are you telling us CNN is lying?

Social distancing and closing down business is a state issue.

 

Was that his idea?

Jesus heard my prayer.

 

Wuhan isn't totally up to speed yet. They're transitioning very slowly and they're still maintaining social distance and everyone is required to wear a mask in public. In other words, they're taking a very slow, very cautious approach to restoring back to normal

 

I'm saying people should do their homework. Not sure why that is controversial.

Then it is dumb as hell to credit Trump for it.

 

The real reason is this: Models operated on a zero-sum theory: No one is immune! We're all gonna get it! We're all gonna die!

That's not how real physics work, biology. Every pandemic has managed to leave more than a substantial number of the world's citizens alive. And that's because the virus can't live enough to transmute into that many individuals. It just can't.

The real key with asymptomatic carriers is that their bodies are in fact fighting the virus. It's not like it's some dormant waiting for a trigger thing. The question is, when do they stop becoming a risk to spread? That's what they SHOULD be working on right now.

Instead of doomsday models that's failing, and coming up with excuses for their own failures.

This is the second time in the last few years(Mueller Inquisition) that we were told to support something outlandish, without evidence, completely border lining on speculation and for WHAT?

 

There are some common denominators of those in that group.

 

NO, that was never specified when those crazy numbers were thrown around. Nice try though.

 

Complete nonsense. There is no reason to believe the model mentioned (which has already been completely misrepresented) assumes that no one is immune, that we're all going to get it, and that we're all going to die. And that isn't remotely what "zero-sum" means.

 

Except this has already been shown to be false. The 1.5 - 2 million numbers were in regards to no action taken. Nice try, though.

 

I think you mean arguing and taking shots at others when people were saying the numbers wouldn't pan out with the Whitehouse guidelines. What about all those that used those numbers against Trump, guess he knew a little more than you gave him credit for. No on second though, if those numbers pan out Trump was right and you were dead ass wrong.

 

It's what every other model that failed until this one has presumed(and this model may very well fall short as well.) It's called making a point. Our federal government was hijacked "with the task force" and former supposed "Democratic" governors, turned us into mini-China blocs.

Never until now in US History before an election was a President basically tossed aside, and never before have we lived under such a draconian affairs. These unacceptable behaviors and so-called "measures" will in fact be investigated, and whoever materially benefited should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

 

Your words might carry some weight if you were able to address the OP and if you were able to actually refer to any such failed model. But if that's what it takes to further the fake Trump victim narrative, fine. We all know the game at this point.

 

Those worst case scenarios are the reason that we are currently taking very significant and draconian measures designed to bring down the estimate so significantly.

 

No, they don't care about that just like they don't care about the distinction between COVID deaths and deaths from a regular flu that we have treatments and vaccinations for.

 

Still looking for an example year where we had 88,000 flu deaths out of a population of 330,000,000? Easy say when you can't cite any sources.

 

Trump gave the recommendation nationally on social distancing, head it myself!. So if SD save millions of American lives then ole DT gets the credit.

 

In other words you don't think the initial models were wrong, you believe the amazing job by Trump and his team is responsible for bringing those numbers down and saving all those hundreds of thousands of lives the models predicted would be lost.

Guess what, I agree. LOL

 

Since you asked...



The only 1.5 million model that I'm aware of is the Imperial College one, in which the number of 1.5 million US dead came from running some mitigation. As Mother Jones summarized:

"Given where we are now [the article ran March 17th], this means that the only realistic options are #2 and #3. In other words, it’s likely that the US will see 1.1-1.5 million deaths from the coronavirus, with more than half of them coming by June."

 

What has Trump done that wasn't already being done locally? I mean, aside from all of the stuff he dragged his feet on.

 

Agree, so the flu could honestly be worse than C19 as we have vaccines and treatments for the flu but still see deaths in the 50-60 k range. C19 with no vaccine or real treatments and we might see the equal number of deaths. So imagine the flu without vaccines or treatments, could be double if not more than C19 deaths. Interesting.