Peak Internal Combustion Engine Sales Behind Us

My EV comments have been about the fact that EVs are in increasing demand, and for good reason.

I fully agree that a move to EVs isn't going to solve the climate crisis we face.

With 2/3 of US total oil consumption feeding cracking plants and then burned in automobiles, EVs are a needed improvement. Maybe your percentages address that - I'd sure like more clarity and maybe a cite.

I think we need a serious energy strategy in the US - a strategy that actually considers the future. Today, we can't even fix the infrastructure we have.

I doubt we can have a serious energy strategy that doesn't include nuclear power. Plus, nearly every building in the USA can save the owner money by installing solar - an energy strategy improvement that pays for itself! Why are we building structures without solar? Today, the leading single fuel for electricity in Iowa is wind. Overall, clean energy is supplying the growth in electricity that we consume today. The rest of the sources are maintaining a steady state production as gas is increasing by enough to offset the decrease in coal - an improvement, but not nearly good enough in total.

Anyway, for real progress on climate change we need a serious energy strategy - not the point source fossil fuel strategy we have today.

 

I don't believe that's the way it's going to work.

Electricity would have to become much more expensive to slow demand for EVs.

I think EVs are only one of the reasons we need a serious energy strategy.

 

yeah I understand the faithful. Believe despite reality.

Yeah what do you think is going to happen when power companies have to produce four or five times more electricity than I do now?

We have the ability to produce this energy we just aren't allowed to do it. I don't see that changing.

 

It's a little hard to tell exactly how fast the EV market is growing, as COVID had a big impact on car sales, plus EV manufacturers of reasonably good EVs can't meet demand.

Tesla has invested $10B in their Texas "gigafactory" that is about to come online. Other manufacturers are investing huge dollars in production.

Also, there is a healthy number of start-up companies that are producing EVs. Lucid, Rivian, and a few others in the US. Plus names Americans have never heard of in China and the EU. Amazon has a deal with Rivian for 100,000 delivery vans - Rivian's full production capacity for quite some time. Amazon also has stated that it will be buying EV vans from Stalantis NV, the company that builds Chryslers and will launch an EV van in 2023.

I don't know how much faster EV production could grow.

Your view of new cars has always worked well for me in buying computers over the last 30 years. I don't buy used computers, of course. But, I let the new models, new operating systems, etc., get tried out on the market for a while.

Today, some models of year old Teslas sell for about what they did when new, because the wait period for new product can be a year.

 

I like the idea of people living closer to work. People care about where they live - what's going on there, etc. When people commute long distances, it adds the issues of commuting (time, energy, transportation infrastructure) and the issues of less concern about conditions where work is done.

Yes, battery technology is sure to change, as there is HUGE investment in finding new battery types of all dimensions. Hydrogen is one of those battery types.

 

'tune ups' are done constantly via downloads. teslas have oil lubricated components...just because you think they don't doesn't mean they aren't disposable

I can change my oil 20 times in the amount of time it takes to charge a Tesla once.

 

Yeah a 4 stroke engine is more efficient than an electric motor.

 

No, I'm referring to free market capitalism.

What will happen is that the price of energy will rise and there will be investments in new capacity that become profitable. Once again, this is how capitalism works.

I think you are referring to the fact that there are restrictions on design and construction.

 

Yeah right, an ev has special moving parts.

 

This is probably news to you. Yes, gearboxes just like in ICE vehicles. And they have brakes, wipers, tires, filters and a whole bunch of **** ICE vehicles have that require maintenance.

 

That is a general problem of some sort of dimension, not even slightly specific to the topic here.

If you want to go after the general issue, the place to look is in defense procurement, where the dollars are gigantic and stuff gets build that the DoD has stated that they don't even want.

Charging stations would be built in every state and just don't cost that much. The political crap that goes on with congress and military procurement just doesn't apply to the comparatively small potatoes here.

 

What's your point???

Lucid is one small startup. It's very existence is a demonstration of the investment being applied to fulfill EV demand.

 

TV production is limited by supply of lithium.

they don't do that with cards cars that don't sell go out onto all the bandon airplane strips and rot Google it it's surprising how many cars that were never owned by anybody are just sitting somewhere.

Well they are scarce because Elon musk bought many of them back. This is mostly to keep people from learning about the software.

People just value them high because of their cultural significance. Other EVS that don't quite have the cultural clout that Tesla has are hard to give away.

 

Very much so it's good that you realize that a four-stroke engine doesn't need an entire power grid to charge it.

 

The issue is that ICE vehicles have all sorts of systems that EVs simply don't have - systems that require frequent maintenance.

I don't know where you get your "gearboxes" thing. EVs don't have transmissions.

 

Yes, the overproduction of ICE cars gets hidden. All those unsold cars are still actually counted as meaningful production by legacy ICE corporations.

Please cite evidence of your last two paragraphs. I don't know of any company that is having a hard time selling its EVs, so maybe you could start there.

 

electric vehicles do not exist in a free market capitalism if they did they would sit on the lot and rot.

There are loads of government incentives interfering with free market capitalism with regard to electric cars and they're still outrageously expensive.

no it isn't.

When there is less supply and more demand price increases. And when it comes to producing energy capitalism is not allowed. We have to subsidize unicorn farts and rainbows (wind and solar) to an extreme degree just to make it viable.

You have to clear cut forests you will have to destroy environments you have to dig up coal you have to frack for natural gas to make energy.

Government interference with that is to the extreme you are not talking about free-market capitalism

Yes restrictions to the point where you can't design or construct at all that's a de facto ban. That's anti-free market.

 

you missed the point it was to point out your approach to computers will not work with cars if you want an older model you will have to buy something used. Dealerships do not sell older models and it's not in artifact of the internal combustion engine it's an artifact of car manufacturers.

I'm not giving you any evidence if you want to remain in the dark that's your business.

You don't know of any company having a hard time selling electric vehicles because they don't make very many. If we're talking about them replacing gas powered cars completely they'll have to step up production and they're not going to be able to they're barely able to keep up now.

 

More than 2/3 of US oil consumption is for transportation.

You need to consider the issues with world oil supply and production of oil as well as the cracking industry that produces and delivers gasoline and diesel.

 

While incentives surely help sales, there is NO indication of the affect you claim here.

The incentives available don't cover the additional cost of today's EVs.

Regulation absolutely does add cost to new power plants.

But for just one example, new gas fired power plants are being built in significant numbers as can be shown by the increase in production of electricity from such plants.

Free market capitalism does NOT mean that there are no regulations.

 

New and rapidly deployed programs are always most vulnerable. That's why there were so many COVID scams.

 

The issue of contracting for charge point construction can not be compared to any aspect of COVID response.

 

Yeah okay.

I still prefer a more dependable more reliable more maintainable vehicle it's not my place or concern to worry with supply.

 

So software upgrades are tune-ups.

 

Gearboxes are simple, and both my vehicles are manual shift, and only once did I add fluid for the gearbox. 1 car is 27 yrs old, the other, 16 !!!