I have to agree with you on that. The Republicans will definitely loose Wisconsin and Illinois, but they'll probably hold on to the rest of their seats. Since Harry Reid is retiring, the Republicans are probably going to take his seat, giving the Democrats a net gain of 1.
I agree, that's why I will vote Republican. Ike and JFK tried to avoid the Viet Nam War, but LBJ and McNamara sent us into it for their profit. Bush 41 sent us into Desert Storm, but got us out quickly. Clinton set up 9-11 and caused the Iraq War due to his incompetence as CIC. Spare me the warmongering and incompetent democrats!
After the Trump has finished dumping on liberals, military veterans, liberals, immigrants, liberals, African Americans, liberals, Krauthammer, liberals, Hispanics, liberals, school teachers, liberals, the Pope, liberals, Muslims, liberals, homosexuals, liberals, labour unions, liberals, monogamists, liberals, poor people, liberals, all Republican, Democratic and 'reality tv' rivals, liberals, and all government bureaucrats (excluding poll nannies at whom voters must flash something that looks a bit like an ID) he will form the Trump Party that will drain off sixty-seven votes from the GOP and deliver the election to Hillary Clinton. He will then snap up the island of Euboea on the cheap from a desperate Greece, expatriate with a parting finger at America, declare himself "El Supremo" and raise the Confederate Battle Flag over his utopian paradise where he will rave incoherently that "Clinton set up 9-11 and caused the Iraq War" and other such wacko bird conspiratorial flights of fancy. The world will put him on "ignore" and life will go on.
I'll go ahead and make my predictions for the three gubernatorial elections that will be held in November. Louisiana: David Vitter (R) wins a plurality in the first round and goes on to win the runoff with about 55% of the vote. Mississippi: Phil Bryant (R) wins reelection with about 60% of the vote. Kentucky: Jack Conway (D) wins the election with about 53% of the vote. Neither party gains or loses any governorships.
My prediction: Trump will continue running his mouth. Eventually he will either get the nod or run 3rd party and we'll be saying "President Hildebeast rolly-cankles" for 8 years. Unless by some miracle the beast is arrested for illegally disseminating classified intel from all those emails etc. Then we'll be saying President sanders. I'm not excited about any of these prospects.
The alienated, angry White guys who have been whining for the past eight years will, no doubt, but normal Americans will just be wishing they had had a better alternative.
Perhaps if Hillary keeps slipping in the polls and more and more Republican candidates move ahead of her, perhaps the Democrats will start to think of someone else. Quinnipiac latest had her losing to Bush by one, beating Walker by one and trouncing Trump by 12. For all the head to head match ups, check them out here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html There was another poll around two months ago that stated 54% of Americans wanted the Democrats to run someone else besides Clinton. But that was not as bad as Jeb Bush, 61% wanted the Republicans to run someone else. Perhaps the Republicans will in Trump. But unless Hillary really falls behind, by double digits I do not see the Democrats changing horses. But stranger things have happened.
I think if you are using a chart from 2014 to predict the next election we don't need to,take your predictions very seriously.
There's a new prediction market called BallotCraft.com that currently gives odds for who will "win" the August 6 Republican Debate (decided by their focus group). Prediction Markets have been proven to be more reliable than polls in predicting election results. Right now Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio are predicted to do the best, which sounds about right to me. Trump, on the other hand, is trading at 2%. Also sounds about right to me. At this point, polls are almost meaningless. They have almost no predictive power for what will happen when the primaries start in February or the actual election happens in November. They matter only in helping to shape the narrative around each candidate, which can determine how easily an candidate can raise money and recruit staff. Unique to this year, they also determine which Republicans get to be on the debate stage, which is a big deal for the long-shots.
I'll modify my predictions from 2013 and 2014 and still state that Hillary will be the next POTUS but will update with Hillary- 44% popular vote Bush- 30% popular vote Trump- 25% popular vote Democrats, "undecided and independent" voters (note that ind and undecided are in quotes) will rally around their party and loyally vote Democrat while the GOP will splinter or stay at home, thus electing Hillary.
The sea change is a reflection of voter disgust with professional politicians, prostituted media and the special interests that feed off them. There is nothing really new about the GOP gaining in the polls because after eight years of a Democratic administration no one has gained a thing. The phenomenon that needs attention is the trend to vote for none of the above which is why Trump and Sanders enjoy a status seldom seen by political outsiders. What Americans need to understand is that Trump and Sanders are seen by the established machinery as interlopers who threaten the status quo on both sides. Trump and Sanders are threats because if they get elected they can actually walk the walk instead of just talk the talk. They are not connected to or controlled by the American political, economic and judicial Cosa Nostra. The prediction that makes the most sense is that sanders will affect the Democratic race much as Ralph Nader affected the race in 2000. Trump on the other could actually get the nomination and potentially win.
May I have your permission to post a portion of the above post to my signature to celebrate the great victory of Hillary next November? Just the part that says, "the Trump Party that will drain off sixty-seven votes from the GOP and deliver the election to Hillary Clinton."
You keep obsessing over my reference to Senator Graham's noting the existential plight of a 90% White political party. As a White male, I embrace America's diversity - that includes White males, naturally.
If you are confident that the Trump will be the GOP nominee and that Clinton will win, by all means. Why not?
That's great. You should encourage people of other races to vote republican then so that the republicans can be more diverse. - - - Updated - - - Did you mean 67 electors?
There has been a lot of talk that Trump will run as a third party/independent candidate if the Republicans do not give him the nomination. Your poll there is about what every other one I seen on a three way race shows. Quinnipiac today released some state polls in a three way race" Florida Clinton 37 Bush 35 Trump 19, Ohio Clinton 37, Bush 27 Trump 23, Pennsylvania Clinton 37, Bush 29, Trump 24.
