Why the US economy will likely fall into a recession next year

As in border security and Gay marriage they can be quite flexible as to where they stand and who is to blame when things go right or wrong.

 

I've invested in and studied the Market for more years than I can count. I have no idea how it works.

 

You need to think about it as one big happy family.
But your right. Next year (I think) Social security will want some of it's money back.

 

I guess you weren't following politics during President Obama's term where President Bush was to blame for just about everything.

 

It can be a path to preventing economic decline though.

Why does there always have to be expansion? Certainly things cannot go on expanding forever, now can they?

 

if true, I'm betting the far right will shout BLAME OBAMA!

 

during the traitor Bush regime every problem was blamed on Clinton

 

Fear and greed.

 

No question it's going to happen. In fact I'm counting on it.

You know, it's great fun to blame the "other" Party for recessions, but truth be told, capitalism produces recessions and they can't be prevented under capitalism. Approx every 4 to 9 years there's another recession. And it's the economy and the economic system that creates them. Presidents really don't cause them. And this next one will probably come sooner than later.

 

Yeah; this woman's prediction is kind of like saying "I am 100% certain there will be an earthquake in California!"

So shirt, Shylock.

Anyone with a brain knows it's coming - the only question is when & how bad.

 

Trump Trade attacks have damaged the world economy and started the slowdown.

Too bad Trump relies on his " Gut " .

America's problem is a lack of Revenue due to the Rich Republican Donor Tax cuts

 

The bond yield curve is pretty flat. Not quite inverted yet, but almost there. An inverted yield curve had preceded EVERY recession in recent decades.

 

Just to add that the Fed has, thru their propping-up of barry's failed policies, created a moral hazard with QE that will be difficult if not near impossible to extricate the economy without pain. However, I'm not seeing that pain coming in a lump sum such as a recession anytime soon. Business investment will keep the economy expanding via the tax cut. A brilliant targeted cut at the right time. THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!
What we will likely see is an economy not growing as quickly as the Fed slowly unwinds their position. An unnecessary position had the Fed not intervened with massive QE. While 3% YoY growth looks good it could have been 4%, or 5%, or even 6% for a year or two.
Conversely, imho, Bernanke did an admirable job in keeping the economy righted. It was the fault of fiscal policy, and not monetary policy that has gotten us to where we are today.

 

Mostly the crash.
Well, there was Iraq.

 

LMAO...The stock market was plunging at 7000 when the last recession hit in 2008 and now it's at 24,000. G'wan, tell us another one.
Obama did what was needed after the crash to stabilize the economy and it has been improving ever since, until trump started to play with it.
Let's hope that the US doesn't end up another one of his bankrupt companies before he's gone.

 

Amen brother!

 

it's coming, Trump's huge tax giveaway to the corps did nothing to stop foreign outsourcing or products being made overseas and imported... Americans need Jobs.. tax cuts for the rich and the mega corps is not creating Jobs in America

 

If you read the referenced article you probably noticed that the headline reads,
Why the US economy will likely fall into a recession next year (my emphasis added).

Not quite the same thing as predicting earthquakes in California....

But, who knows... maybe the Fed can keep their ever-larger-and-larger 'fraud-balloon' afloat for ANOTHER nine years without any, uh, disruptions...(?).

. "And today the Dow Jones reached 180,000, while the national debt topped two quadrillion!"

 

I could never really figure out the economy until I started studying the Federal Reserve System... and then enlarged my inquiries into an examination of globalist Socialism. This brought a greater understanding of how all these internationalist central banks operate in harmony with each other, while they undermine and subvert the authority of "government by the people".

The "Trade War"...? Well, Average 'Joe Schmoe' American won't really take notice until the next time he buys something made in China and finds out that the price has skyrocketed! Then, and only then, will garden-variety Americans take notice... of anything having to do with the "Trade War".... As long as most Americans can just buy crap using their deck of credit cards, and make the minimum required payments every month, the sad truth is that they won't really care or pay attention at all.... I blame the last 30 years of what passed for adequacy in public schools for most of this.

 

I know we disagree often, Dairy, but you must come to see that in order to have FREE TRADE, we must also have FREE MARKETS!

That involves more than just the elimination of tariffs, quotas, and all the usual 'protective' mechanisms. It definitely MUST also involve freely-moving interest rates that react to DEMAND in a truly free-market system. Interest rates, plus wanton manipulation of the money supply is what the Federal Reserve System has crushed into the dirt for years -- interest rates in the face of DEMAND for real money, based on something besides 'carnival games, is what we must have. Otherwise, we'll just get more of the kind of crap we have been getting ever since the Fed took over total control of the U. S. economy in August 2007....

 

That's not what SHE said.

 

We've not been in economic decline since 09.
In fact, we are a full employment and wage inflation is now a concern for the fed res.
The economic decline happened in the 1990s and 2008/09.
Will there be another, likely, as nothing goes straight up and we are now in one of the longest growths without a recession in history.

And it's likely to be one of the causes to an economic decline. Moving backwards is rarely, if ever, a path to expansion.

 

So what do you think is the real purpose behind this imaginary trade war?

 

I'd say you are correct, but we are at the largest our economy has ever been. So I don't see what you're talking about.
If we were in a long decline, you might have a point. That simply isn't the case.
And the only true free market that exists, are in text books, IMO. In the real world, someone or something will find a way to game the free market system. As greed and fear run the human side of things.

The fed res kept the 08 crash from becoming a repeat of the 1930s full on depression.

 

Here's hoping it Tanks (and the Bottoms Out) in Mid-October 2020 so (if Trump is still around) it will BURY his chances.