Why the US economy will likely fall into a recession next year

It is interesting to note the conflict between the current growth of the overall economy and the stagnation of growth of the real wealth of most Americans. And then the fed starts to panic when it looks like actual real gains in wages might occur. Is it fear that inflation might actually eat into the wealth of the ruling class?

 

That's a long time to tank and bottom and will hurt most every American. Just so you think it will harm tRUMP.
I think tRUMP does that on his own quite well. No sense in making Americans hurt.

 

Yes, it's fairly obvious. Housing and autos are off. And the speculation in tech stocks appears to have reached a current peak. We all see more and more signs of people in banking and finance chasing poorer risks.

Wall Street got what it wanted. The vast majority of Trump's tax cut went to a one time sugar high that inflated stocks just long enough the make big commission checks for CEO's and bond traders.

That's over.

And we have doubled the deficit and every sign points to much greater debt moving forward.

 

Well, fingers crossed that they keep the right touch. The two sides of QE were the balance sheet and zero interest rates. Here is the balance sheet:



Quantitative Tightening is the reverse and it has been underway for all of the Trump presidency. The Fed has already unloaded $375B off their balance sheet since Trump took office. And they have another $3.3T just to get back to long term levels. That's why anyone who sees an inflationary scenario is clueless, the Fed has $3.3T in ammo to control inflation.

Yup. The Fed increased rates enough to get money that really should be in savings vehicles out of the Stock Market. But, anyone not smart enough to move their savings, likely has it at far too much risk and should move to safety.

He did.

 

Here' the first two sentences of the story I referenced, verbatim (emphasis mine) :

"The U.S. economy will likely fall into a recession next year, according to Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

“Well there's 100 percent chance we're going to get another recession,” she said on Friday during an interview on "WSJ at Large with Gerry Baker." “In the next year, I do think trade holds the key.” And again, she specified, "100 percent chance"....

I didn't say she's omniscient, but she probably knows a great deal more about economic forecasts than you or me. I dunno... hell, what's your prediction? It seems certain that you are in possession of some kind of strong opinion to the contrary....

Sonders thinks that nearly everything hinges on 'trade', per se. I can see that as a strong catalyst, but also see another so-called "eight-hundred pound gorilla" in the room -- horrifically overvalued stocks! For nine long years, the primary thrust of the Federal Reserve has been to herd people back into stock markets after the Great Recession, and to make those markets swell -- no matter what! The Fed did such a good job that now many (if not most of those stocks) are STUPIDLY overvalued. That surely is an extra added, rather large danger at this time....

. "But, but... I thought the Fed was going protect us and rescue us FOREVER...!"

 

Obama? He did NOTHING but what he was told to do. Mostly that was confined to matters he could comprehend, like running a liberal Democrat Welfare Circus while the Federal Reserve engineered everything else.... All the Quantitative Easings? Operation Twist? Crushing interest rates down to near-zero? Rescuing the Wall Street bums who the Fed thought were "too big to fail"? Flooding the planet with enormous amounts of new, essentially-worthless dollars? Do you seriously mean to suggest that OBAMA did that...?! He was nothing but a "house pet" for the Federal Reserve! OH, and BTW, so was "W" Bush!

 

Obama saved the world from a Great Depression........then he steadily with sure hands slowly brought the economy back from the edge.........when he handed off the economy to the **** head in the WH, he did it with both hands.

 

Really?

There isn't an example in history where that idea worked.

 

The British Empire? They were very focused on trying to maintain a trade surplus, and prevent trade deficits at all costs. That's why they even waged the Opium Wars in China.

 

You may want to read what she said a few more times.

She did NOT say that there will be a recession in 2019.

If you'd like to make a permanent sig change bet on it, let me know.

 

Thank you for making my point.

The British Empire did build trade barriers. Their thinking was that the colonies would provide the markets and the raw materials,and that the factories and the jobs would be in England. They gave Imperial Preference tax treatment to UK based investors. And they tried to protect their intellectual property.

The result was that Germany and the US passed the UK in steel production by the turn of the century, and British industry lagged behind,

 

You need to add yourself and your family to that tally.

You...do not pay all the taxes needed to provide you and your family with the services you receive.

Trump's tax cuts has not met the hope of revenues coming in.

 

Are you aware the US imposed protectionist measures early on to try to establish their industries, copying the example of the UK after they had broken away ?

 

Bullshit. The lefties have tried to take credit for every point rise in the Dow and you know it.

 

The US Economy will stay out of Recession this year...it might happen again if the Dems keep the majority in the House and win the Senate in 2020, and the Oval.

 

Fine. Have it your way. Everything will be just peachy-keen next year. Put your life savings into the stock market right now and have a really nice day.... Better yet, buy a lot of gold and silver. I suspect that you'll enjoy equal success with both equities and commodities by this time next year, at the rate things are going....

 

OK, I get it now, Thor. You deliberately write this kind of mindless pablum-esque drivel just to annoy me... right? Mission accomplished!

Study the Federal Reserve System for at least ten years and then come back and tell me that your "Messiah" did anything of any importance regarding the economy by himself! Tell me that he did anything by himself besides maybe wiping his own butt that he wasn't INSTRUCTED to do first by the Fed, or one of its messengers, like Tim Geithner....

 

Anyone notice how when it looks like democrats are going to retake power the economy tanks and whenever it looks like trump is doing good the economy does good?

Democrats say they would tank of the economy if they could blame it on trump to get rid of him. They hate Americans anyways so tanking the American economy who they feel is illegitimate and stolen is seen as virtuous and their eyes.

 

The Russians and the Chinese are watching all of this with great interest as both of them continue to put together one hugely successful deal after another. The Russians are taking over the entire natural gas business in the Eastern Hemisphere, and the Chinese are enjoying phenomenal success with their "Belt-and-Road" projections.

Meanwhile, we sit over here fighting with each other like mad dogs. At this rate, in another ten years, we'll be pushed back to a 'sphere of influence' that occupies little more than the Western Hemisphere. Wait and see....

 

The globalist that control Russia and China also own the Democrat party and do everything they can to fleece America. Unless America wakes up and realizes what is going on, We will vote ourselves into slavery.

 

Yes. Actually they remained a high tariff country for all of the 19th century. But American industry grew in a nearly 100% local market, and American manufacturers and inventors did not hesitate to steal technology in much the same way we accuse the Chinese of doing now.

Actually, it was only after the Civil War that business in the US was sophisticated enough to realize that they were better off paying into patent pools, like the one put together to control the Bessemer patents.

 

Some of it will be yes. Without a doubt. But I am not sure what else he could have done aside from allow another great depression style issue.