Can Ron Paul win as a third party candidate?

Perhaps this is overly optimistic, but I see a path to power in 2012 for a third party candidate in the form of Ron Paul should it come to that. This is by no means a normal election year where a third party candidate could only enter the race as a spoiler. There are many things stirring in America that I think present a blue print for a Ron Paul victory as a libertarian. The most obvious being that the majority of people are not happy with the status quo and that's an under statement to say the least.

The biggest obstacle a third party candidate usually has is exposure. The voters are shown the Republican and the voters are shown the Democrat. In 2012 we could get around that. Should that happen President Obama and *insert generic GOP establishment hack* would look to have identical policies which would really highlight Ron Paul as the one alternative to business as usual which Americans are overwhelmingly not only tired of but disgusted by.

Here is what I think it would take:

First and foremost, a Sarah Palin endorsement.
The left hates her, and probably a lot of the "Reagan Democrats" as well who we would need to carve into deeply to win the Presidency. Never the less, nobody can deny that Sarah Palin has a huge following with the Tea Party, she's an excellent campaigner, and a good orator. With a Sarah Palin endorsement and serious campaign effort on behalf of Ron Paul the MSM would be forced to acknowledge that Ron Paul exists as a third party candidate. Exposure, exposure, exposure.

Sarah Palin can draw huge crowds all over the country and send them all home convinced they'll vote for Ron Paul to spite the establishment and mainstream media. These people will then talk to their neighbors and it can snowball in Ron Paul's favor.

I do not know that Ron Paul's policy of non-intervention would bring Palin into the Ron Paul camp but his domestic policies no doubt would. We know she's watching and it would also provide a means of getting her revenge against not only the main stream media but the GOP establishment which she despises.

Sarah Palin alone could sink the GOP nominee. She has a connection with small town America nobody else in politics can match. She is the queen of the Tea Party.

Secondly, a big celebrity drive for Ron Paul.
Joe Rogan, Ted Nugent, Chuck Norris, etc etc, can and would constantly stump for Ron Paul. This is more exposure and could very well create a counter-movement against the establishment with a lot of people they could reach and convince.

The narrative would have to be the people versus the establishment, liberty versus tyranny, peace versus war... In other words, hope & change. The script is there and all but writes itself. Once it took root in the people any attempt by the media to crush Paul would backfire.

Alternative media.
The internet is a powerful tool. We become our own media, the resistance against the mainstream and the establishment. Jon Stewart, perhaps some talk radio personalities like Glenn Beck, etc etc. The tools are available to fight back and combat and vilify and point out the agenda driven nature of the MSN which has already took deep root in the American conscious.

The independents.
This incredibly influential voting block is a king maker and we know these people will prefer Ron Paul over Obama and Romney. All evidence i've seen supports this claim undoubtedly.

It would take a lot of work on the grass roots level from Ron Paul supporters. It would take money and it would take exposure which I think we would be able to overcome were we serious about striving for it.

In 2008 Obama capitalized on something simmering beneath the surface with the American people. We hate the establishment on both sides. We're tired of business as usual. We're tired of wars and spending and crony capitalism and socialism and wild and out of control corruption.

In 2012 Ron Paul can capitalize on all of this.

The only obstacle I see for the victory of a Ron Paul third party candidacy is in raising public awareness that he's out there working to not just run but WIN. If we can do that... I think its a real possibility that his campaign and support could snowball into a real and legitimate chance at toppling the Democrat and Republican contenders.

Peace. Liberty. Prosperity. Hope. Change. Defiance.

We the people.

Agree or disagree?

 

This is fine, but are you conceding that Paul can't win the GOP primary?

I think he can win.

 

I think he can win but I know if it's a toss up between Ron Paul and any other man the establishment will not think twice about giving it to the other candidate.

 

Keep in mind they're acting like Romney coming in 4th in Iowa is a huge win for him.

 

RON PAUL cannot win the Republican nomination.
RON PAUL cannot win the Presidency as a Republican.
RON PAUL cannot win the Presidency as a third party candidate.
RON PAUL is too old and too radical. He is history waiting to go in the books.
Paul is the greatest threat to cause an obama reelection. There is NOTHING positive about a RON PAUL campaign.
The idea HAS to be, DEFEAT obama!

 

Sorry but the anybody but Obama thing doesn't fly with people anymore. That sounded great until the GOP dusted off people just like Obama to run against him.

 

yeah...Romney and Gingrich are Obama lite.

(*)(*)(*)(*) that

 

I don't know so much about the Sarah Palin factor, but otherwise I think RP could win as an Independent, or even as a Republican if the party would quit trying to destroy him. He is doing well so far in spite of that so it's all a little premature.

I absolutely believe no other GOP candidate can win in the general election, and that's not even factoring RP in. No candidate will win without some Independent votes and even some disaffected Democrats. None of the other GOP candidates will have any appeal outside the party and it's debatable how much appeal they would have there. The win goes to Obama.

The fact is that RP is the only candidate that excites voters this time around. He is the only one that can ensure a big turnout. If he's not in it come November, expect a small turnout and a default win to Obama.

 

I'll take, "anybody but b.o.," over an old clown that cannot win. IF I believed Paul had any chance, I'd be all for him. But he does NOT.

IF he were to win the Republican nomination, I'd definitely vote for him. I'd know it was an "anybody but b.o.," vote. You might think it was the wisest vote. Makes no difference to me. But he just doesn't have a chance. Too old, he's MY age, for crying out loud, And too polarized.

 

The system is rigged so that it's almost impossible for third parties to gain any ground in this country.

 

That's a lot of assertions without backing any of them up. Every Rasmussen poll i've seen has Ron Paul neck and neck with Obama. He's for peace and liberty and chopping down the authority of the central government which most Americans have reached the point of being afraid of.

I don't know why people like you keep insisting he cannot win. It sounds like nothing more than parroting talking heads on Fox News.

 

As much as I want Ron Paul to win, I really want to see Obama get out of office.

If he doesn't win the GOP nomination, which I think he will, then he doesn't have a shot as a third party.

All of the candidates (maybe minus Newt) would be better than Obama.

 

"Slightly better" makes the country progressively worse and brings about a fall that is bipartisan in nature. Conservatives and independents need to distance themselves from this and start voting on principle rather than so called "electability." The simple fact is Romney is not going to beat Obama in the general election. Nobody is going to come out for him, period end of story.

There are a few things i'd like to see Ron Paul do to refine his message. Instead of using the word "we" when talking about America bringing foreign hostility upon itself, i'd like to see him use "politicians," the "U.S. government," "policy makers," etc.

He should also be more crafty in wording his position in regards to Iran because his enemies can make it sound like he's defending Iran when he says things like "Iran wants a nuclear weapon because of what we're doing."
He should instead focus on "We won't let war propagandists lead us into war with Iran like they did with Iraq."

People like Hannity are too eager to misconstrue what Ron Paul says to try and tell the American people he's blaming them which is ridiculous.

His message is dead on but it needs a slightly better execution considering how many propagandists will be out to destroy him.

But to go back to the purpose of the original post, what does Ron Paul have to do to win a third party candidacy should it come to that?

 

I agree with you on everything you said except on electability. I think pretty much everyone can beat Obama.

Paul does need a better execution of his message. He needs to better explain his foreign policy. People tend to think Paul wants us to get attacked and that he wouldn't do anything about it... He needs to emphasize on his defense plan. And he shouldn't be saying "we" provoked 9/11 attacks. Instead, he should be saying politicians propping up dictators, providing these guys with weapons, and bombing them provoked the attack.

Here's a great video explaining Paul's foreign policy. It clears up what he is saying and he should be more clear on this.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8NhRPo0WAo"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8NhRPo0WAo[/ame]

 

Yes he can. Because he is the one, the one that will safe the lions den.

 

The GOP is coming dangerously close to swaying a lot of voters to RP's side just by their attacks, which are increasingly being shown to be hollow. Don't expect RP to do much different, but events can certainly play to his favor. I do agree that he could refine his message, though.

I would note that the GOP's hawkish posturing is alienating voters of all types. Even if they don't go for RP, they certainly won't vote for these war-mongering ass clowns. Romney is the only one that is slightly moderate on this, but even he wants more military spending.

America is tired of war. No hawk will be elected in 2012. The GOP needs to realize it's not in the bag for them. Obama is certainly re-electable if there's no good alternative.

It seems that the Republicans are trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Go figure.

 

Nope, no chance of Ron Paul winning as a 3rd party candidate. He'll get his usual 8-10%, and Obama and whoever the GOP candidate ends up being will fight for what's left. More than likely, Ron Paul will take enough GOP votes away to give Obama another 4 years, which will be just fine according to the majority of Ron Paul fans.

Despite what they say, they know deep down that Obama's 2nd term will be infinitely more destructive than voting for a "neo-con", but their love of Paul will override that knowledge. They'll justify the destruction that occurs between 2012-2016 as justified punishment for not electing their guy.

If Ron Paul doesn't win the nomination, this will be his last chance at being President. Hopefully his son Rand will run in 2016. He's got many of Ron Paul's correct ideas, and none of the bad ones.

 

No chance, Thats why hes gonna win the GOP Nomination...

 

He says that all the time... Dont you listen to the guy?

 

Slack off on the BS. Rasmussen 12/13/2011, b.o. 43% Paul 35%. I do NOT remember a single Rasmussen or OTHER poll that showed Paul EVER being favored over b.o. NO national poll has ever shown Paul as a NATIONAL front runner even in the Republican race. He has only been a front runner in a VERY few select states.

Lets leave the propaganda lies to the liberals and have Independents, conservatives and Republicans post TRUTH, instead of wishes, presented as facts, like liberals do.

 

I would have to agree. It seems to me that anyone that supports Ron Paul wouldn't abandon him if he were to run as a 3rd party. If he doesn't get the nomination and he runs as a third party I don't see him losing any of the support he gained throughout the GOP election process. I do think he would also gain a lot more independent and democratic votes as well if he ran as a third party. Enough to win against Obama and the GOP nominee? It seems more and more likely to me everyday.

Still, I think it is a little premature to say definitively that he should or should not run third party.You can say it would guarantee an Obama win all you want but no one knows what is going to happen and something happening to where Paul could win as third party is still possible.

 

Okay... Who do you think has come closer to Obama in the polls? No lying...

 

The only poll of any matter will be conducted in Nov. 2012. Every other poll until then will be suspect to a greater or lessor degree.

Try this site:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

It averages out all the left, right, and center polls. And it is still meaningless.

 

Disagree, Palin is to polarizing. She would isolate Paul from many voters. I think it would be a negative affect for a general election.

Celebrity thing: sure, can't hurt

Alternative media: It's already there and ready to go. Ron Paul is boss on the internet.

Independents: with some wins, I think many will stop saying "I like him but don't think he can win" and jump fully on board.

He needs to come out of Iowa and continue the momentum, everything else will fall into place.

 

The only thing different about this year is that we have an incumbent with a provable failed record. That does not create any opening for a third party candidate. Especially one with a 35 year record of very little accomplishment. Paul has overstayed his welcome in national politics by a factor of about 3.