Could Iran really blockade the strait of Hormuz?

Does Iran really have a strong enough navy to blockade the strait of Hormuz?

I think not, as Saudi Arabia has a very good air force, proberly the best in the middle east, and the US and NATO have naval forces in the region.

So it is just Iran talking big.

 

Obama carryin' a big schtick...

US carrier is spotted near Iran
Fri, Dec 30, 2011 - OIL: Iran has threatened to close down the Strait of Hormuz, but the US said it would not accept that, and sent a battle group to where Iran is conducting military exercises

See also:

Getting the Strait of Hormuz straight: an FAQ
29 Dec.`11 - Iran has caused a stir with its threat this week to close down the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions were imposed on Iranian oil exports. Here’s why this small body of water generates so much world attention.

 

They would pay a heavy price, but they could close the straits for a little while. At least until we decide to open them back up again. Iran does not lack for courage, only in capability. Such a move would cost them heavily, militarily and economically.

 

No, they can't.....they don't have enough of a navy. If they tried anything, we'd vaporize their whole navy in 5 minutes or less

 

I’m thinking once; then when Ships and Subs start sinking to bottom they’ll have a change of hart!

Beside, a blockade will heart them also.

 

Anyone considered they are prepared to lose a few ships and men (well, they don't care about the crews much anyway, just look at their human rights record) so that they can gain the UN sympathy vote when the US does what it does best - interfere.

 

They don't need to do it, the threat is enough to push up the price of the oil they sell, hurting the West in their pockets.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis

This same scenario pretty much already happened.

 

They don't have the right to block the Straits. Any attempt in blocking should result in their losing a ship.

 

Well, you are asking the wrong question here.

Iran does not need a Navy to block the strait. In fact, it would be foolish for them to even attempt to use ships to blockade the strait.

They have many more effective ways to do this. Silkworm, Noor, C-704, C-802, Nasr, Sky Dragon, Moskit, and Kowsar missiles.

And if Iran tries to blockade the strait again, that is how I would expect them to do it. Not with their Navy, but with their rocket forces.

 

Well, there is the saying, Might makes Right". And they do claim the entire strait. And they have had conflicts in the past with Oman and the UAE over this control.

 

There is more firepower in one aircraft carrier than the whole country of Iran.

 

When a clutch of mines floating on the tide takes it out, what then?

 

Not hardly. Take away the nuclear warheads, and there really is not all that much firepower. And the Iranian Air Force greatly outnumbers a single carrier.

 

they only have 40 air-superiority fighters that are less than 20 years old, and those are MiG-29s. they have 5 multi-role aircraft younger than me, and those are domestically produced. what Tomcats they can still get in the air will likely have serious air-frame cracks. a Nimitz class carrier can maintain 130 F/A-18 Hornets.

 

What is being overlooked are two things:

a) a blockade would hurt Iran as much or more than anyone else. I think this is just more political rhetoric and flag waving by Iran.

b) a blockade doesn't have to be successful to work- if there is a conflict in those straights, maritime insurance companies will refuse to cover merchants ships and all shipping through the straights will cease until the conflict is over- regardless of whether Iran is actually able to 'blockade' it.

 

You are missing quite a few aircraft here.

Including the 24 French Mirage fighters that Iraq gave to them.

64 F4 Phantom II

75 F-5 Tigers

17 Chinese F-7 Interceptors

32 Su-24s.

Mpw we are quite a bit past the maximum of 130 F/A-18's.

Quality is important, but quantity has a quality all it's own.

 

And that is pretty much what caused the last major US-Iran conflict. When the US flagged Kuwaiti tankers as US ships, to escort them through the straight.

But the danger here is that Iran is a major influence on the Fanatical and FUndamentalist Shi'ite groups. And if they claim they are being persecuted by "the US, Israel, and their puppets", these groups will lash out for them.

 

Iran has the ability to stop shipping in the straights--for a little while, a week, maybe two, at most. And that's it. By that point, Iran's air force will either be in shambles or in hiding, and probably both. Her navy will be little more than a collection of speedboats and anything on the high seas would either be hunted prey or a burnt-out hulk on the way to the seafloor. Her missle forces will still be factor, but more of a nuisance than anything else. Frankly, we have more than enough firepower in place to handle anything they can put up.

Iran has one arrow in her quiver. Once it's gone, so is any serious sea threat posed by her. Now, stripped of her military power and even more of a pariah than before, Iran will be impotent as well as disregarded.

So what's Ahmedinijad's game, saber rattling all about? None of what we've heard pans out when looked at realisitcally. Why make all these comments?

Simple. The saber rattling isn't meant for the western audience. It's meant for the audience at home to hear. This is all a tempest in a teapot.

 

those are all older than their F-14s. Iran cut back on oil field maintenance to enrich uranium, you don't' think aircraft maintenance didn't take a hit before their source of income? what they get in the air and doesn't fall out of the sky on it's first hard turn is no match for even the 20+ y/o export grade MiG-29s they have.

 

Iran's Navy is the perfect type of Navy to operate in this kind of environment. Narrow waters, shallow, with lots of small islands in the way. This is the perfect type of environment for small fast boats.

Think of the US PT boats in the Pacific theatre during WWII. Hit and run tactics. Pop out from behind an island, launch an attack then fade away.

And most of the targets would not be military vessels. They will be slow undefended tankers and freighters. These boats would try to evage the military craft in the area, and target instead the civilian shipping.

TYour claim might be valid, if we were talking about an engagement on the "high seas". However, we are not. We are talking about a conflict in a shallow and narrow strait. With lots of small islands that Iran controls.

 

Well, if "Might makes Right" then if the US Navy blasts their blockade out of the water then I guess we're right in what we do.

 

Yes, all true--except for the threat, at any rate. The first few days, Iran would have a ball. Iran poses a significant threat--but not a sustainable one. They'd shoot their bolt in one or two major attacks. Scary enough, especially if you're unfortunate enough to have to sit through one.

But we're not going to be sitting on our hands, y'know? Iran can't make good the losses they are going to take. They can't sustain their blockade. Iran will fail, and, since our limited goal is simply to open up the straights for safe passage, it should be a short-term mission with a long term naval and aerial patrol element. Iran simply can not muster the kind of combat power they'd need to stop us from opening the straights back up fairly quickly.

All this blockade would accomplish would be to decimate their military and further isolate Iran. Ahmedinijad knows this. Ayatollah Khamenei knows this. The parliment knows this. They're not stupid--they just don't like us or our way of doing business.

We're all reacting to a campaign message, something akin to getting all up in arms after someone claims the Democrats are going to boot Obama and run Hillary instead for the Democratic canidate for President in 2012. Sounds entertaining but ain't gonna happen.

 

So do you believe Iran should be permitted to shut off oil supplies to Europe?

 

I must admit I have been watching this closely. I think there are bigger things to take into consideration here. The allied powers are once again in hate with extreme nations with America being the biggest target, but not the only one. I hate and am not trying to sound like a world war monger, but this is in fact what leads to it. Iran might be the tipping point that brings this world to war once again. Iran could be the catalyst to the fight of many nations sick with the United States. This would be a very dirty war if it happened, it would not be the old days in war terms. Military vs military would definitely be apparent, but gorilla terrorist warfare would be evident. I fear for what could happen, hopefully all sides realize this is not a pissing contest and not their planet. Virus spreads this way, we are a virus to future generations. Nuclear was is a possibility and severed oil connections is another. This could be dangerous in many senses. Hopefully it will not be.