COVID-19 Research, Drug trials and Pathophysiology

Herd immunity?

 

Delta's behavior of peaking in two months, which has been seen in other countries and now here, is not fully understood. In any case, I wouldn't rush to call it herd immunity; we've been down this road before, just for the virus to throw us another curveball in the manner of new variants with an ability to re-infect the people who had the virus before, which pretty much defeats the possibility of achieving full herd immunity.

 

Oh, please--do you really believe they could get away with it?

 

I was thinking along the lines of cutting the infection rate to the point that for this variant there would be smaller outbreaks in clusters of mostly unvaccinated individuals.

 

That is possible.

 

That guy, so called doctor, just have admitted that vaccines are useless, because people will get sick with new variants.
This "doctor" is very funny guy, especially when he pushes so called "truth" but ignores any slight disagreement with his version of "truth"

 

They will probably change something in the formula, e.g. add couple of micrograms of some neutral substance.

 

Mine is, of course, an uninformed guess.

 

Something different, Change the formulation.

 

Could the high figures be a result of how deaths are reported? In the UK we still report "Died within 28 days of a positive covid test".
While in the middle of the pandemic this figure might have been roughly accurate, since the application of the vaccine I think this measure is far less likely to be correct.
A vaccinated person taken to hospital with a heart condition may well test positive for covid, but its far less likely that the virus will go on to be the underlying (Primary) cause of death.
How are these stats measured in the states?

 

The vaccines save lives, that's not useless.
Like masks and socially distancing it doesn't prevent the spread but it helps to reduce it and it lessens the symptoms.
CF does not ignore disagreement, he provides hard evidence including being very open about side effects associated with the vaccine and harsh criticism of Fauci and the CDC where merited.
He's a genuine asset to the forum who avoids partisan talking points in preference for scientific evidence. I wish you and others like you would do the same rather than regurgitate RW talking points and dangerous conspiracy theories.

 

There is no scientific data about masks. All we know is that if you put barrier to the mouth then viruses will not fly directly, everything else is a politics and totalitarian stances.
Vaccine might help someone but it is useless as a way to stop infection spread according to CDC.
As far as that "so called doctor" informer he has started topic asking why people do not trust government about vaccines (political question) and then ignored everyone who disagrees.

 

That's just untrue, @CenterField has linked to multiple studies showing the various effectiveness of different types of face masks and comparisons between states that had mask mandates and those which didn't. There's clear evidence that even the worst types of masks have some effect and the best masks are very effective at reducing spread and even protecting the wearer themselves, which was never the point as masks are mainly to protect others from the mask wearer.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
New York ahead of Florida as of 10/14/2021. Strict mandate vs relaxed mandate.

Implementation of mask mandate reduces daily cases by 1%. But it also might be attributed to other factors as lockdowns that goes along with it.
Most of the studies very inconclusive within statistical error 3%.

No clear evidence whatsoever.

 

This is a turd-in-the-punchbowl moment.
NIH Admits to Funding Gain-of-Function Research in Wuhan ...
https://www.yahoo.com › now › nih-admits-funding-ga...

11 hours ago — A top NIH official admitted that U.S. taxpayers funded gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses in Wuhan.

". . . The revelation vindicates Republican senator Rand Paul, who got into heated exchanges with National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease director Anthony Fauci during his May and July testimonials before Congress over the gain-of-function question. At the second hearing, Paul accused Fauci of misleading Congress by denying that the U.S. had funded gain-of-function projects at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. . . . "

 

The evidence continues to come in.
A Lab Leak From Wuhan: The Evidence Mounts

Joel Zinberg, City Journal

The origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19 remains unclear, but recent revelations reinforce the likelihood that the true source was a lab leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV).

A letter from Lawrence Tabak, the National Institutes of Health’s principal deputy director, to Kentucky congressman James Comer confirms that the NIH funded research at the WIV during 2018–2019 that manipulated a bat coronavirus called WIV1. Researchers at the institute grafted spike proteins from other coronaviruses onto WIV1 to see if the modified virus was capable of binding in a mouse that possessed the ACE2 receptors found in humans—the same receptor to which SARS-CoV-2 binds. The modified virus reproduced more rapidly and made infected humanized mice sicker than the unmodified virus. . . .

 

Thanks, buddy. This said, it is true that I don't ignore scientific evidence (I mean, the real kind; not RW talking points) including when it disagrees with my opinion (just an hour ago, in a discussion with 557, I said "I stand corrected" when he presented a meta-analysis that had a conclusion that was different than mine) but I do ignore some people here, who are beyond help.

 

Whatever side of the debate any of us are on your comments are valid. Yes you are right. Deaths from Covid are not necessarily death from the Covid 19 virus but more accurately stated death in people who have the virus but may have died because of heart disease, cancer, diabetes, other chronic conditions. Whether the Covid 19 exasperated the heart disease, etc., or co-existed but was not the actual cause of death is not necessarily clear. The death rate is to err on the side of caution because most agree if you have a chronic condition with an immunity issue or diseases like heart disease or diabetes or chronic pulmonary disorders (lung diseases) adding Covid 19 on top of it may trigger complications that kill you. We know anyone with a compromised system due to a chronic condition when they catch any kind of virus can have complications that can kill them but would not kill an ordinarily healthy person. Covid 19 on top of say even asthma could be fatal for some when ordinarily the asthma might not by itself be life threatening.

To do autopsies on every person with Covid 19 who died would be impossible and impractical so they err on the side of caution. So you are right in the sense it may not be as fatal as the death rates appear but the bottom line is people with pre-existing vulnerabilities like cancer, immunity disorders like lupus, arthritis, people with diabetes, aids, heart disease, cpd, and so many other such conditions could very well die from catching Covid 19 and many of those same vulnerable people can NOT take the shot so they rely on people like you and me to wear masks, practice social distancing and take vaccines.

The issue comes down to this-when we discuss Covid 19, do we look at it solely from our own individual point of need, or do we look at ourselves as being an organism whose actions don't just effect ourselves but others and not just humans but other life forms on our planet.

Much of the debate from Covid 19 conspirators for me in my personal opinion is very self-centered, self-entitled, and shows an inability of its proponents to understand how our individual behaviour has impact on others. It solely looks at what the individual speaking wants for him or herself.

 

There continues to be discussion on taking vaccines suggesting if it does not stop the spread of Covid 19 its useless.

To start with the primary reason to take the vaccine is so that if you did take the vaccine and get Covid 19, you are less likely to develop complications from it that could kill you and/or require hospital services. By cutting down on the severity of complications and therefore need of hospital services, it frees up those same services for someone else, i.e., someone with cancer, lupus, diabetes, who would otherwise not be able to use the hospital services busy looking after Covid 19 patients.

So the primary purpose is to say, if we can prevent use of hospitals and valuable medical services through use of vaccines, why not? The idea is to prevent use of such services precisely so when they are used the most urgent of conditions use these services. We take hospital capacity and availability of medical services for granted. They are limited and all of us surely have an ethical obligation to help each other assure if we can such services are not needlessly used.

That is the primary purpose of the vaccine and it always has been-its about using our gift of knowledge to help prevent and better manage illnesses. This idea medicine is only of use if it finds a sure is a myth. The primary purpose of medical advances is to try predict and cut down on the kinds of risks that produce illnesses and then effectively time and resource manage services needed to treat illnesses. Finding cures is great but no its not the primary purpose. It is the ideal thing to achieve but most doctors can't create cures, what they can do is help work in a complex network of management to assure all of us have a better quality of life if we do get sick.

That said, so what about vaccines and their role in preventing spread of any virus let alone Covid 19? Well you can go back and study how vaccines have been used with polio, chicken pox, rabies, ebola virus and ask yourself have they helped stop the spread? Its very complicated. You can't come up with a simple answer. Its a yes and no answer. Rabies will always exist but yes give someone the vaccine early enough they can survive it and if they are treated for it, they do not go around biting other people so to speak and spread it.

We do know in certain regions where rabies food packets have been dropped in specific regions where foxes. skunks, rabbits, racoons, opossums and other wild like have high rates of it, it most certainly has lowered or stopped the spread and likewise with certain flu strains and humans. In other viruses maybe not.

With Covid 19 the analyses so far indicates that yes the vaccines are likely to have a transmission-blocking effect but no, its not possible at this point to tell you the full extent or any extent of that blocking with accuracy. More research will be needed. Whether the vaccine alone, or its combination with lock downs and/or mask wearing is stopping the spread is not known yet.

Adding to the difficulty in determining its blocking ability is the fact many people with Covid 19 are asymptomatic carriers, i.e., they have it, spread it and have no clue they have it and are spreading it.

What is known is that if a vaccine CAN prevent people from acquiring the infection in the first place yes of course it would help to reduce transmission. So does the Covid 19 vaccine prevent you from getting it or merely reduce the symptoms. Right now we believe it reduces the symptoms once you get it but can't stop you from getting it. However since many people get it with no symptoms, and have the vaccine and others may not have taken the vaccine, get it, and have no symptoms, its very difficult to know if on top of that, people are actually developing because of the vaccine a complete or partial immunity from even catching it.

The bottom line when you go through all the studies to date in the UK, Israel, the US, etc. is that:

1-there is some evidence to indicate the vaccines s might make infected people less able to pass the virus on, or make them less infectious;
2-Covid 19 vaccines have been found where they can reduce viral load of this virus in the human body, reduce the amount of infectiousness.

The point though is we are not being asked to, nor should we assume, taking the Covid 18 vaccine will end its spread or existence.

Like any virus it will continue to mutate. In people who have not taken the vaccine, the chance of them catching it is higher and when people who catch it who do not have the vaccine get, its those people where the mutations are most likely to occur and cause it to change requiring we come up with new vaccines.

An unvaccinated person provides the ideal environment for a virus to have more opportunity to mutate. What form that mutation takes remains to be seen.

So the key to this debate is not simply to take the vaccine to prevent the spread of Covid 19, but to reduce its symptoms plus give it less opportunity to mutate into more deadly or dangerous forms.

No doctor or scientist who works on any medicine or vaccine promises 100% cure of any disease. Any medicine we create has negative side effects. The key is balancing the pros and cons of the medications we create.

The key is when you do not have medical or scientific knowledge to understand if you are reading web sites providing you absolutes and simplistic black and white positions or making blanket generalizations about anything you should be careful.

Conspiracy theories about vaccines are as a result of a knowledge vacuum. They are the result of people who want quick easy to understand answers to complex issues with no simple answers. Conspiracies offer immediate explanations for issues that otherwise remain confusing and complex.

 

Wow! This is quite incredible! The member who posted this gem, Death, is a lawyer. He is putting some doctors to shame. He shows advanced and accurate understanding of the issues. It is a pleasure to read such a good post, and given that it is from someone who isn't in the healthcare field or the field of biological sciences, it's even more impressive. I wish every member of the general public, every patient, every policy-maker had Death's understanding of the stakes in this pandemic and the role of vaccination.

Well done! And before anybody thinks it, no, I'm not being sarcastic; I'm truly impressed by this member's knowledge and articulation of the issues.

 

Now, while this post is also high quality and there is a lot to agree with, on this one I don't entirely agree.

This part:

"Deaths from Covid are not necessarily death from the Covid 19 virus but more accurately stated death in people who have the virus but may have died because of heart disease, cancer, diabetes, other chronic conditions."

Someone can die WITH Covid rather than FROM Covid, but if the doctor issuing the death certificate is competent, the doctor will NOT list Covid as a cause of death. He/she will list Covid in Part II, co-morbidities.

No, if a death is FROM Covid, then the death IS from Covid. People who die of the conditions you listed did not die from Covid.

What cases are to be listed as having Covid-19 as cause of death? Those for which the sequence of events is triggered by Covid, not triggered by the co-morbid conditions. In that case, Covid-19 will be in part I (the cause of death part) and the other conditions will be in part II (the co-morbidity part). Why is it that 94% of real, bona-fide Covid-19 deaths have co-morbidities? Because most Americans do have co-morbidities, especially the elderly. It's hard to find an elderly person who has no co-morbidities. It doesn't mean that the death was not FROM Covid. I explain:

Example 1:

Someone has terminal cancer with a brain metastasis. The person is admitted to a hospital with mass effect in the brain and herniation. Upon waiting for assistance in the emergency room, the person catches Covid-19 from other patients waiting there. The Covid-19 part doesn't play a major role in that person's clinical course (the person has a rather asymptomatic case of Covid-19). However the tumor forces further herniation which compresses the respiratory and cardiac centers in the brain stem and the patient dies of cardiopulmonary arrest.

For this patient, the cause of death is malignant neoplasm of [say the breast] leading to cerebral metastasis leading to herniation leading to cardiopulmonary arrest. Part II, co-morbid condition, asymptomatic Covid-19.

This is a death WITH Covid, not FROM Covid, and it SHOULDN'T count as a Covid death, if the doctor is competent enough to fill the death certificate correctly. This person would have died that same day, Covid or not.

Example 2:

Someone is obese. As such, inflammation is more of a problem for this person than for a fit person. It is a risk factor for severe Covid-19, not only because of inflammation, but because of less proficient lung function due to compression of the lungs by the large abdomen, and a less competent immune system. So, that person is going about his/her life; although obese and subject to complications of obesity and a shortened life span as compared to that of a fit person, that obese person is not about to drop dead and would probably have lived another 3 decades. Then, the obese person is at a restaurant, unmasked, and catches Covid-19 from another patron.

Four days later he develops a fever and loses the sense of smell. He is given an infusion of monoclonal antibodies and gets a bit better but then a few days later he gets short of breath and his pulse ox drops to 88. He is rushed to a hospital. Over there, he is given dexamethasone, enoxaparin, and ultimately is placed on a ventilator. Again, he seems to be recovering, but then he develops a cytokine storm (huge inflammatory response). That results in disseminated intravascular coagulation, multiple organ failure, and death.

This is a death FROM Covid. Obesity in itself cannot cause a cytokine storm and disseminated intravascular coagulation. That person wouldn't have died that day if not for Covid. So this person's death certificate, if competently issued, will read:

Part I: Covid-19 leading to viral pneumonia leading to cytokine storm leading to intravascular coagulation leading to fatal multiple organ failure. Part II, co-morbidities: Obesity.

---------

There is a myth that we doctors fake death certificates to mention that the death is from Covid instead of with Covid, to make more money. This is false. First of all, most of us are honest types. All professions have bad apples but most people want to do a good and accurate job. We aren't prone to fraud. Second, what is in the death certificate itself doesn't affect compensation as the death certificate is, by nature, something that is done when the care ends by virtue of the patient's death. Reimbursement will be by procedure and will have a surplus if the patient is Covid-19 positive because the hospital will incur in further expenses isolating the person, spending PPE, etc., regardless of whether or not Covid was the ultimate cause of death or just co-morbid. So, that's done. There is no interest in later, faking the death certificate. Billing will be by procedure, like ICU stay, not by diagnosis. The surplus from the diagnosis will occur regardless of the death certificate.

 

Absolutely agree. Excuse my lack of clarity. Excellent qualifications to what I said. I defer and thank you for taking the time to read and share. We need all of this kind of discussion out in the open so there are no grounds or reasons to misinterpret, misunderstand, be afraid, etc.

I have no excuse for my lack of clarity but I was worried about length of explanations as many people do not like lengthy responses and its hard to properly give discourse on this topic without taking the time to be more precise as you were. My intent was not to mislead and your explanations are crucial to clarify misunderstandings that could have arisen.

 

@Death
Thank you for your in depth and considered posts. I would only add that its a matter of degree. People want black and white answers to grey questions.
Question: Does the vaccine stop spread of the virus YES or NO.
The answer is of course NO it doesn't STOP spread, but it does reduce it. Vaccinated people have a lower viral count so are less likely to pass it on.

 

@CenterField told me a while ago to look for widespread heart damage following COVID

Something Really Strange Is Happening At Hospitals All Over America

ERs are swamped... but not with COVID cases...the main things that are being treated include “blood clots” and “heart conditions”…

 

No, like I said, you're a lawyer and you have a very clear view of the issue, better than some doctors (we've seen doctors being sanctioned by state medical boards for disseminating misinformation about Covid). But it is natural that me, a doctor, will have a bit more precise view of some concepts, given that it's what I do for a living for the last 41 years. But you are doing very very well. I would never be able to talk about the Law, as well as you are talking about Medicine. I'm truly impressed.