Democrats 2020: 50 states, 50 candidates

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Phil, Nov 3, 2018.

  1. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    The latest announcement is Governor Jay Inslee of Washington state.
    Senator Patty Murray was my choice for that state. That's because unlike Inslee-one year older than she-she doesn't have a state to run. With Democrats still in the minority in the Senate she doesn't even have a committee to run.
    With 14 years in the House and 6 years and counting as Governor Inslee, 69 by the election, is the third oldest and most qualified of the 9. Therefore he could win the nomination or drop out after Iowa.
    If he starts winning a lot of states it will mean that a faction of the Democratic Party rarely mentioned and hard to quantify are voting for him: people who want the best possible President.
    With the obsession of nominating people from new categories Democrats have rarely thought about who should win lately, just happy to elect the first something. First President from Washington state, the Pacific northwest, the northwest should be enough.
    The only Washingtonian to make a serious bid for the White House was Democrat Scoop Jackson in 72 and 76. Jackson was a different type of Democrat, always reminding people that Russians-not just Soviets but Russians-are different than us. It will be interesting to see if Inslee, in his 20s when Jackson died, reveals fond memories of him. That would be an effort to reach the remaining conservatives in the party, a niche sufficient to keep him in the race through super Tuesday.
    The first likely result is that everyone ignores Delaney. They can't ignore Inslee. When Delaney is eliminated those wishing to vote for a white Gentile man will have a good one and be joined by those looking for the best candidate.
    Everyone agrees that Californians are weird, but we're divided on whether those from Washington and Oregon are also weird. Still there is a west coast perspective on things and Inslee may be able to present it more credibly than Harris, taking votes from her. If she drops out early he and Bernie will fight over California on super Tuesday. Finishing second behind Bernie will be declared a victory. If she remains he could take the win there and knock her out, looking very strong indeed.
    Since Bernie won Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado and other states he now has a rival there. Should Inslee take some of those states he'll be the giant killer even if he remains third or fourth in the race overall.
    The south is still up for grabs and a white male Gentile has as good a head start as anyone, so Inslee could be a prohibitive frontrunner in March and battle for northern cities too.
    On the other hand, as a sitting Governor he has the least time to campaign, needs to work sometimes, might face emergencies others never think about. Coming from the west coast to New Hampshire, South Carolina, even Iowa is a long trip that could wear down an old man.
    The biggest cause of early exits is lack of planning. Often a person who does not fare well in Iowa stops immediately even though New Hampshire looked promising because he has minimal support on the ground. Often someone who does well in Iowa gets nowhere in New Hampshire because he had only one week.
    In his case, one vote behind Delaney in Iowa ends the race, less than 15% average Iowa and New Hampshire ends the race, no wins on super Tuesday ends the race.
    Iowa is his best chance of the first 4, but he has to outflank Harris, Klobuchar and Delaney, keeping them behind him everywhere (except Harris in Nevada) then get all their support as they exit.
     
  2. Sahba*

    Sahba* Well-Known Member

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    My long time - top pick for SCJOTUS!
     
  3. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    John Hickenlooper of Colorado becomes the tenth candidate worth mentioning to join the race. I picked Diana DeGette for that state thinking Hickenlooper, a few years older was ready to retire after 8 good years as Governor. Also that name is a liability.

    Hickenlooper has many strengths.
    First of all, 8 of the other 9 candidates come from blue states. Castro is from a red state but he's Mayor of a blue city.
    Hickenlooper comes from a swing state and can therefore claim that he alone has repeatedly won elections by getting votes from non-Democrats.
    Colorado is a swing state that swung for the Democratic nominee for President the last 3 times, mostly because of a big Democratic vote in Denver. Since he was Mayor of Denver 2004-2010 and Governor 2011-19 Hickenlooper can take credit for that convincingly.



    At 68 with 2 full terms behind him, he has the best set of credentials in the race so far.
    He's a geologist, and had a long business career before going into politics, a combined background few can boast.
    He's the fourth oldest in the race, more likely to be alive in 8 years than the older 3.



    As a geologist he can tell us the consequences of fracking, and predict exactly where we might find new wells of oil, possibly freeing us at last from dependence on the Arabs. He can tell us the history of climate change, starting with his creation myth of how the Earth got warm enough to create life and sometimes purge itself of useless species, not to mention how soon we can expect its most useless species-humans-to perish.



    Of course his state legalized marijuana a few years ago. Advocating that nationwide is worth some votes. He doesn't need many to rise through the pack.
    In 2016 a difference of 2% separated fifth from ninth in Iowa.




    Of course he can boast about the great economy in his state and pretend he was responsible.



    Hickenlooper has a huge advantage by being retired. With no job at all he can hang out for weeks on end in Iowa and New Hampshire. Only Delaney has that much free time.



    The name Hickenlooper is his biggest obstacle, however it's easier to remember than Harris or Warren. The biggest problem with the name is that he has no hope for VP. A 68-year-old former Governor of a western swing state is the ideal choice for VP but the name has to balance the Presidential nominee.
    He has to win.



    There is also a weakness in all these cases for him.
    If someone looks they'll see was fell short of 50% in both Governor elections. He barely got non-Democrats.



    If he makes a big deal of the economy some might point out that global warming is so far helping his tourism industry. There isn't enough snow in the Adirondacks but there's still enough in the Rockies.
    Though he can also claim his state will suffer for the moment climate change is on his side.



    Klobuchar could eliminate Warren.
    Inslee could decimate Delaney.
    The only likely victim of Hickenlooper is also Delaney.
    If all 3 have strength it could resemble the situation in 2008 with Edwards, Biden and Dodd. They could combine for up to 45% of the vote in Iowa but finish third, fourth and fifth.
    The bottom man might drop out, but then the remaining 2 get a combined 25% in New Hampshire, still third and fourth. They might battle for third again in Nevada.
    In all cases, South Carolina is the key. How will any of those 3 woo the south. There's at least 20% in all states with the right message.



    Colorado may join super Tuesday, making him the 6th candidate of the 10 defending his home state that day.



    So Hickenlooper has an opening for one super Tuesday victory if he can last that long. Since delegates are proportional everywhere you just need some credibility past that point to keep pace.
    It becomes a battle of attrition. As one of the older candidates he might not have the enthusiasm unless he's first, but with at least one victory his endorsement will be valuable.



    This announcement opens up a conspiracy theory.
    Bernie won Colorado (Hickenlooper), Minnesota (Klobuchar), Washington state (Inslee) and Hawaii (Gabbard).
    Is it possible that at least one, maybe all 4 of those longshots are in it not to win the race but to peel support from Bernie?
    He won 23 states in 2016. Subtract those and he's down to 19. The guy who wins 18 will be in command at the end of the primaries.
     
  4. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    With Harris, Warren, and Beto (assuming he runs) in the race--Bernie is already in position to have a ton of "Progressive" votes peeled from his hide.

    As far as Hickenlooper?

    Yet another entry into the race of a Non-Factor (who will get lost in the ether).
     
  5. TrackerSam

    TrackerSam Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Who has the other 7 states? Obama said there were 57 states.
     
  6. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Washington, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, Virgin Islands and Democrats abroad.
     
  7. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Donor

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    Territories don't get to vote for president.

    lol
     
  8. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    They do have primaries and that he tripped over:
    Heinz 57, 56 primaries, 52 cards in a deck, 51 billion: net worth of Warren Buffett, 50 states, 49 states won by Nixon and Reagan, 48 contiguous states, 47%: goal for percentage of people on government assistance, 46 states won by FDR, 45 states won by LBJ. You need cheat notes.
     
  9. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    I'm glad someone agrees about Bernie.
    My theory is that half his 2016 votes were anti-Hillary versus pro-Bernie. So I expect about half this time overall.
    Of that 21% how many are Bernie fanatics and how many are just socialists?
    Suppose he gets 10% and 3 rivals take the remaining 11% socialist votes. Those 3 all drop out by super Tuesday and Bernie takes 21% thereafter, possibly winning about 7 states.
    Can any of the other socialists penetrate the mainstream?
     
  10. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    The announced official qualified candidates has reached 11.
    The last 5 candidates to announce all have viability. They joined the race with some advantage over those who were in ahead of them.
    The new guy starts in tenth place in credentials.

    His name is Robert Francis O'Rourke.
    Instead of calling himself Robert, Robbie, Rob, Bob, Francis or Frank he chose Beto, hoping Hispanics will think he's one of them and vote for him.
    In fact, O'Rourke's whole campaign will depend heavily on Democrats being very dumb.
    He lost to Ted Cruz. Cruz lost to Trump. All you need is grade 7 algebra to know he has no chance in the general election.
    However since people have mentioned his name a lot he's hoping they'll think he's a Hispanic giant-killer who beat Cruz in a big state and the best shot to beat the guy Trump beat.

    I'll start with platform this time.
    Whatever he said to get over 40% of the Senate vote in Texas last year won't play in the Democratic race.
    He can take very different positions, proving his hypocrisy, and hope no one cares or use the same platform and turn off most of the Democratic voters.
    Mostly, he'll hope no one pays attention to anything but his face.
    "I'm handsome, elect me" works in a lot of places.

    If he does seriously project the right wing of the Democratic Party-and no better candidate from that side joins the race-he could monopolize the 5% left on the right and work towards the center.
    The center has the thinkers and if he can get them thinking-they should pick someone else.

    Delaney, O'Rourke, Castro, Booker. Sanders, Hickenlooper. Inslee:
    Those are the credentials of the men bottom to top.
    The best qualified candidate never wins.
    In 2008 it was Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Gravel, Hillary, Edwards, Obama and Kucinich.
    The ranking in votes was almost reverse.
    That's what O'Rourke is counting on.

    O'Rourke does know how to speak to farmers, better perhaps than anyone in the race.
    His message might play in Iowa.
    His best strategy for New Hampshire will be to play up his Irish roots.
    In Nevada he should get nowhere, but if anyone is still thinking about him then it means he crushed Castro. He could be first among the white Gentile men after 3 races, even without getting near first place. He only has to outlast Delaney, Hickenlooper and Inslee, with Castro falling in the process, to be the only option for the KKK in South Carolina.
    It's a terrible way to win, but it could take the state as long as he doesn't have to share those votes with another white Gentile man.
    With a victory in South Carolina and Castro gone, he then tries to defend Texas on super Tuesday.

    While Castro might lose Texas even if he won Nevada and had strength everywhere, O'Rourke can expect an easy win there if he's still viable.
    The question is will he be able to win anything else while defending Texas that day.
    A single win, if someone like Booker takes 5 states that day, might leave him limping along in fourth place thereafter.
    That's when his ability to raise money might just outlast the competition and make him the winner.
    Of course Bernie should have at least 6 wins after super Tuesday. He could be as high as 10 of 16.
    If Bernie does that well second place is still considered first.
    As in every scenario I've looked at Harris, Booker, one of the white men and Bernie look like the final 4.

    Suppose O-Rourke wins the south on the hate vote. That's 11 wins in March, all below 40% except Texas.
    Bernie still dominates the west, especially caucus states.
    If Harris and Booker are both still alive they may divide the industrial states up north. They may have to unite to beat him.
    Could Harris be wooed to join Beto, eliminate Booker and edge out Bernie at the convention.

    I don't think the man has any type of message for the northern cities.
    It's not worth trying for them.

    O'Rourke joins the list of people who can't win an election in their home state, so they run for President instead.
    That includes Rick Santorum and Carly Fiorina. It's also bad etiquette to run against someone from your own state. Only Rick Perry and Trump did that.

    The fact is he spent 6 years in the House of Representatives from the 16th district, the western corner.
    He lost to Cruz by a margin no one could dispute despite raising a fortune, mainly from out of state money.
    Since he has no chance to get his old seat back now that he's out of Congress, can't beat John Cornyn in 2020, can't beat Greg Abbott for Governor and can't even think about beating Cruz someday, he mostly needs to spend all that money left over.
    That's the same situation as Elizabeth Warren since she certainly won't want another Senate term at age 75.

    I was hoping the next candidates would join upping the qualifications of candidates so pathetic longshots would stop joining.
    Inslee and Hickenlooper upgraded the experience level almost as high as it can get.
    This guy matches the trio near the bottom.
     
  11. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Kirsten Gillibrand picked St. Patrick's Day to join the party as the 12th candidate worth considering. She was not my choice to represent New York, but with Cuomo out she's the best remaining.

    She had an exploratory committee going since January.
    What did they tell her?
    I know what they should have told her.
    With 3 candidates from the northeast in the race she becomes superfluous.
    With 4 women in the race she becomes superfluous.
    She has no chance to win Iowa.
    She has no chance to win New Hampshire.
    She has no chance to win Nevada.
    She has no chance to win South Carolina.
    She has no chance to win super Tuesday.

    Her only hope of finishing first anywhere super Tuesday comes by attrition.
    If Klobuchar drops out Minnesotans might vote for the best qualified remaining woman.
    If Warren drops out Massachusetts might vote for the remaining northeast woman.
    If Harris drops out Californians might vote for the prettiest remaining woman.
    Obviously if she outlasts all other women, she may start getting votes from voters whose biggest concern is nominating a woman.
    THEY TRIED THAT. IT DIDN"T WORK!

    Gillibrand is from New York.
    That's the same state as the President.
    If anyone thinks a candidate from the same state as the President is a good idea they need only look at the elections of 1904 and 1944 and see how badly the candidates lost.
    The fact Trump lost New York might make them more hopeful that they can win New York, but that's no longer a matter the Democrats need to worry about, is it?

    In addition to those elections they can look at 1960 and 1968 when someone picked a nominee for Vice President from a state the other guys had a candidate for President running. They both lost, and in 1960 a VP candidate able to deliver a tossup state might have changed the winner!
    Though Gillibrand and most of the men are ideal models for figures atop a wedding cake, this is not the election for that.

    My first thought is that she might be most likely to...
    drop out after Iowa.
    Gabbard can not expect good numbers anywhere. There's no need to drop out because it will barely matter.
    Warren will rely on New Hampshire to tell her future and won't stop until they reject her fully.
    Klobuchar should get good numbers in Iowa. Finishing behind Gillibrand there will finish her, but she'll have to mess up royally to lose votes to Gillibrand in a state so close to home.
    Harris can't be sure what to expect but has good reason to stay in through Nevada regardless.
    So Gillibrand might give up if even Klobuchar edges her out for first among women, since she won't finish ahead of Warren in New Hampshire, should be behind Harris in Nevada and has no natural constituency down south.

    As far as ideology, she can be branded a waffle.
    She said recently that people in her part of New York need guns to defend themselves against coyotes, but people in New York City don't need guns to defend themselves against armed robbers.
    Let that sink in

    Still she does have something to offer the right wing of the party.
    With 10 years in the Senate she's the fifth most qualified candidate.
    Though she comes from a blue state, she won House elections in the purple section of the state. She could-on ideology-peel votes from a Republican better than anyone in the race.

    Her best hope is to crush Klobuchar and Warren as fast as possible. That means she must somehow finish ahead of all the women in Iowa, then beat out Warren, most likely for second place, in New Hampshire.
    If she's second among the women in both states she might continue.
    Then she could be second among the women behind Harris in Nevada.
    If Bernie wins all 3 and the 2 top women are in the top 4 then most of the men are gone by South Carolina.
    I suppose the nightmare scenario for the Democrats would be for Gillibrand to lead the women in South Carolina after the above.
    That could be as low as fourth place (Booker, any white Gentile and Sanders ahead). Then we have 7 candidates (4 women) going into super Tuesday. With the other 3 women defending their home states, she might split the south with Booker, becoming the first woman with at least 2 victories.
    Then she can't quit, but how can any of the others after a win?

    At some point the women have to unite, and her only hope is that she'll be the one they choose, but that won't be easy and she might be a distant fourth when they happens.
     
  12. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    The 2020 Democrats: Pete Buttigieg.....


    Who: Pete Buttigieg

    From: South Bend, IN

    Current Position: Mayor of South Bend since 2012

    Background: Buttigieg has been the mayor of South Bend since 2012. He was made a Naval Intelligence officer for the Navy Reserve in 2009. He was deployed to Afghanistan in 2014 for a seven-month deployment, after which he returned to South Bend. He remains a lieutenant in the Naval Reserve.

    The Issues: …..snip~

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/townhallcomstaff/2019/03/18/the-2020-democrats-pete-buttigieg-n2540772


    Oh and he is openly gay.
    So LGBT will be represented.
     
  13. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    I actually did mention him: Mayor of a 4-bit city. I think he's still exploring and might never announce.
    He represents the ant that bites.
    Judy Woodruff interviewed him. His platform is, "I'm young. I'm gay. There are a lot of us. One of us should be Preident.
     
  14. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    In the spirit of my wish to have all 50 states represented, Mike Gravel of Alaska announced yesterday.
    My choice of course was Mark Begich, but I understand why Begich might not join the race. He has a chance to get real numbers and an early humiliation would be damaging.
    Gravel has no chance.
    First of all he finished eighth of 8 serious candidates in 2008 in the Iowa caucus.
    Second of all, he turns 90 next year.
    While Tulsi Gabbard possibly could get good numbers in her native Hawaii (what was once called "favorite son" candidates) Gravel will have no numbers of consequence in Alaska or anywhere..

    Gravel is qualified.
    He was in the Senate from 1969-81.
    That puts him fifth in credentials of the 13, behind the 2 Governors, Sanders and Klobuchar (2 extra months each in the Senate.)

    When Gravel ran the easy way to dismiss his chances was to say he's 78.
    NOW WE'RE SUPPOSED TO BE EAGERLY VOTING FOR PEOPLE THAT OLD!Gravel spent those 12 years in the Senate then returned to the private sector. That's in the spirit of the 19th century statesmen who served to get something done then retired to home business. Some returned to government service due to stress of their country or party.
    Gravel may have a special message for us.
    When Sanders was asked about his age he said some 90-year-olds are healthy.
    Gravel-if permitted in a debate-can endorse that by doing something athletic-maybe a handstand-and demanding the others do one as well.
    He could also exaggerate his own age-related maladies, be wheeled in in a wheelchair with an iv drip, fall asleep until asked a question and groan a lot.
    That would be better.
     

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