Election 2018 - Race for the House

This election year has been lots of fun so far and I'm sure Tuesday, November 6th, is certain to be a great night for popcorn and beer. So far, it appears the Republicans will squeak by and retain the Senate while the race for the House is leaning Democrat. Currently, RCP lists the Democrats ahead 206 to 199 but there are 30 tossup seats in that mix. It could go either way. A Democrat win would be devastating to the Republican agenda while a Republican win would validate their program.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

As we've all seen, there's a lot of bragging and mudslinging this year, a bit above average IMO, but still fun. One of the funniest, and most truthful, adds I've seen in Texas is an old, as in over 75, guy sitting at a table saying (IIRC) "Well if someone said my father helped kill JFK and my wife was dog, I wouldn't be kissing his ass". Yes, lot's of fun.

This thread is to discuss the issues and reps up for election and reelection. Your thoughts?

The poll is public, something I don't usually do, but I'm sure most people in our little forum here can guess how most of our members will vote.

 

No mortal human knows at this point.

 

What do you mean squeak by in the senate?

Last count has republicans picking up two seats, that's how bad the numbers are for the democrats with 23 seats up vs 9 for the republicans.

There are too many close races in the House to determine how that's going to fall.

 

Of course not.

 

Retain the majority by 1-2 seats.

By whose count? RCP has it with 50 R - 44 D with 6 toss ups.

FWIW, I think Cruz will keep his seat...but it's interesting watching him suck up to Trump and sweat the election.

 

New voter registrations are setting records. Early voting is running 300-400% ahead of 2012, 2014, and 2016. Does anyone seriously believe these folks are rushing to the polls to vote for Trump? Everything says wipeout for the GOP.

 

The 2018 elections could see the highest turnout for a midterm since the mid-1960s, another time of cultural and social upheaval.

"It's probably going to be a turnout rate that most people have never experienced in their lives for a midterm election," Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who studies turnout and maintains a turnout database, told NPR.

According to FiveThirtyEight, there is a 84.3% chance the Democrats will capture the House. There is a 15.7% chance the Republicans will remain in control.

There is a 20.7% chance the Democrats will capture the Senate. There is a 79.3% chance the Republicans will keep the Senate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

 

In Brazil, it seems Bolsonaro will win. But even there no one knows.

 

I'm confident enough to say Republicans gain seats in both houses.

#bluewavefail

 

Given the recent events of the Kavanaugh confirmation, and thugs attacking republicans and Trump supporters, then republicans retain both the Senate and House.

These events have energized republicans, and dems are too indoctrinated to see it. The polls won't be accurate until the last few days of the election season.

If dems DON'T FIRE their leadership after the 2018 election, then Trump has the 2020 election path already laid out for him.

Steve

 

There's a lot more corruption down there than even ten Hillary's can muster.

 

Republicans will vote Republican and Democrats will vote Democrats but it will be the Independents who determine the outcome of most elections this November.

 

That's true, but RATIONAL independents will side with republicans.

Dems only want POWER, and they don't get power with angry mob actions against republicans and Trump supporters.

Steve

 

Thus no one knows who will win.

 

Only Republicans think so. Democrats say “RATIONAL independents” will vote Democrat. In the end, all that matters is the poll on November 6th. Bragging, bullshit and blind followers won’t change the final results.

 

In corrupt countries, the outcome is a lot easier to predict. Did you have any doubt Putin would win reelection?

 

Fortunately KPRF (Communists) are very weak.

He is a great leader.

 

I disagree. Most of the people that I know are independents and they are taking it race by race but across the board, none of think that trump is stable. In fact, most of the Independents I know are ex-republicans who abandoned the party because of trump. And everything he's done has confirmed what they thought of him or worse. I have no idea what will happen in the midterms because generic ballots are largely useless due to localized contests and gerrymandering issues. But the reality is that many Independents aren't going to just side republican...that's just false. Many of them will be voting against trump.

 

In your mind, what constitutes a "loss" for the Democrats in the 2018 election?

 

Dude, he was a staunch supporter of the totalitarian socialists. Now he's a totalitarian dictator. The Russian patriot who removes him from power will be hailed as hero in the Russian history books.

 

I agree. The media wants a Trump loss. So when you read the media, you get plenty of bias in favor of any Democrat. Notice no Democrat is lauding the Democrats trying to win in the House. It is just a diatribe against Trump. Each area of CA that has Democrats in power can be expected to keep those seats. Each republican part of CA is in no danger of Democrats capturing those seats. I expect this is how it works nationally. We have the house now. I will be shocked if we lose the house. Despite what the media is up to.

 

Why do you still believe Democrats?

 

Because I'm not assclownish enough to write off over 60 million Americans as the enemy.

 

In what way? Statistically or other measures? The polls, even FOX, are very close on the probable outcome of the mid-term election. The stats have been dead on for the last nine special elections. The polls got it wrong for Hillary and we now know why.

If you mean something other than polling data I don't know what you mean.

 

I was asking Max Rockantsky is why you don't understand. He says he does not write off Democrats yet it seems I see him writing off republicans. Funny how he is that one sided innit?