Octo - are you so dense that you don't remember which party controlled the House and Senate during the Bush years?
In how many months before the Marxist was elected was the nation losing 750K jobs every day? I suppose I can correct your loose thinking. In how many months before the Marxist was elected was the nation losing 750K jobs per month? The Marxist, who is also an Islamofascist supporter on the golf course was elected in November. Does this indicate that you rightly believe the economy is not doing very well? Have you ever considered that the criminals in the Executive branch might bear some responsibility? And the Senate? Does Dingy Harry have any role to play? Do you have a source? Didn't you just say the Republicans are to blame for the poor economy? In your opinion are all blacks and hispanics anti-liberty? Do they all abhor freedom that can only exist when governments are limited by their Constitutions? It is a shame that you went beyond your last statement. The Islamofascist supporter on the golf course has fundamentally transformed the nation. We might not recover. - - - Updated - - - I believe the answer is clearly yes. One need only use the first five words.
The use of that argument demonstrates how little you understand politics or polls. 'Congress' the institution is disliked right now but individual congressman, in their districts, have numbers well above the President. The opposite is true for the Presidency. The office gets pretty good numbers but the individual holding the office gets far worse numbers than most individual congressmen.
Another week, another prediction update... First, the givens (got to start somewhere) Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia are sure pick ups for the GOP assuming no one is hit by a meteor or Islamic Terrorist before the vote...That is plus 3 Now the seriously trending GOP Alaska, Louisiana and Arkansas...plus 6 though these are not the sure wins, just likely unless something changes the momentum Now the competitive but looking GOP Iowa...the best (as in most consistently right) poll, the Des Moins Register Poll, just released, shows a major shift toward the GOP.) Competitive seats... NC seems to be trending dem (no change) Georgia appears to be trending GOP (no change) Colorado appears to be shifting GOP (+1 GOP) NH...too close to call GOP trouble... Kansas, the GOP's only real problem state. The dem in drag 'independent' appears to have hidden his dem sympathies enough to make solid red Kansas competitive. The real issue is not the Independent but the awful, doddering faux Kansas GOP incumbent. He is so out of touch with his state that normal GOP voters might stay home. Still, if the independent actually says where he stands on issues and who he will caucus with, or if Obama does something new to anger the base, Roberts could pull it off. So today, Plus 7 GOP with another couple as good chances for gains...Need another two weeks to see if the current GOP trend continues or if a wave develops.
Here is what the professional think as of today: Professional Prognosticators Senate predictions as of 3 Oct 2014. Current senate consists of 55 Democratic held seats 45 Republican held seats. Independents Sanders of Vermont and King of Maine as Democrats as they caucus with the Democrats and vote the Democratic line which makes them Democrats in everything except name. Charlie Cook 45 Democratic 45 Republican: Tossups (7 Democratic held seats) Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, and North Carolina. (3 Republican held seats) Georgia, Kansas and Kentucky (Democrat to Republican West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota) (No Republican to Democratic seats) For the Republicans to take control of the senate according to Cook, they must retain Georgia and Kentucky and win 4 of the 7 Democratic held seats he lists as tossups. That is assuming independent Orman wins in Kansas. EP 52 Republican 47 Democratic 1 Independent: No toss ups (Democrat to Republican Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota) (Republican to Democratic seats None)(Republican to Independent Kansas) EP states the Republicans will take control of the senate. Nate Silver 538, 50 Republican 47 Democratic 1 Independent: Tossups (2 Democratic held seats Iowa and Colorado. (Democrat to Republican Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia). (No Republican to Democratic seats)(Republican to Independent Kansas) Nate says the Republicans must win 1 of the two seats he lists as tossups to gain control of the senate. Kansas Independent Orman will caucus with the Democrats actually bringing their seat total to 48. RCP 52 Republicans 47 Democrat 1 Independent (Democrat to Republican, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia) (Republican to Democratic, None)(Republican to Independent Kansas) RCP predicts the Republicans gain control of the senate. Rothenberg 48 Republican 47 Democrat: Tossup 5 (1 Republican held seat Kansas)(4 Democratic held seats) Alaska, Colorado, Iowa and Louisiana (Democrat to Republican, Arkansas Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia) (No Republican to Democrat seats) For Stuart Rothenberg the Republicans can gain the senate by winning the two tossup of the three Democratic held states of Alaska, Louisiana and North Carolina if they retain both Georgia and Kentucky. Sabato 49 Republican 47 Democrat. Tossups 4 (1 Republican held seat Kansas)(3 Democratic Held seats) Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana (Democratic to Republican, Arkansas, Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia)(No Republican to Democratic seats) The Republicans must win 2 of the 3 Democratic tossup seats if they lose Kansas or win 1 of the 3 Democratic tossup seats if they retain Kansas to gain the senate per Larry Sabato. House of Representatives: Currently 234 Republican 201 Democrat. 218 seats needed for a majority. Safe seats for each party listed first, competitive seats include tossups seats and seats that are considered competitive but one party or the other has an advantage are listed after the safe seats as these seats may change hands. Cook: Republicans 222, Democrat 177: Competitive 12 Republican held seats, 24 Democratic held seats EP: Republicans 217, Democrat 175: Competitive 17 Republican held seats, 26 Democratic held seats Silver: No House predictions yet RCP: Republicans 213, Democrats 178: Competitive 21 Republican held seats, 26 Democratic held seats Rothenberg: Republicans 210, Democrats 175: Competitive 24 Republican held seats, 26 Democratic held seats Sabato: Republican 220, Democrat 180: Competitive 14 Republican held seats, 21 Democratic held seats
The Kochs' have bankrolled Brownbacks's disastrous Red State Model in Kansas, and would like to inflict the same dismal fate on the nation - with the abject submission of the ideologically-hidebound dupes that just don't know any better - but allowing McConnell and Boehner to run Congress for a term will shatter any remnant of wacko bird fantasies. It'll be the TP swan song as the American public already loathes the corporate toadies, and putting them on display will only intensify that abhorrence.
Your ignorance and/or duplicity is showing again. Both parties are subservient to corporations as a rule. Soros, corporate Hollywood, and big oil all come to mind.
I can readily understand why you'd want to mistake me for you, but both your vaulting ambition and modest comprehension fall far short, as you wallow in petty ad hominems - the antithesis of my signature magnanimity and discerning vision. You snivel about ignorance and duplicity, and then flaunt them as you run from blatant realities such as TP Sam's Red State Model and the American electorate's undeniable preference for Hillary Clinton over the GOP's line up of prospects. Cavort amidst your gossamer ideologically-induced fancies if it pleasures you. As a pragmatist and a realist, I confront what is - even as those prone to giddiness over such pipe dreams as Willard's Landslide! continue to seek their bliss elsewhere.
My prediction is that at this point in time Republicans have a slight edge but we are entering the final stretch and anything can happen.
I urge conservatives to not vote for the RINOs. Let them fail. McConnell needs to be defeated even if it is Grimes that will take the seat.
Yes, you can contest neither. I'm hardly surprised that you run away from polls showing Hillary Clinton leading all suggested Repub opponents and the disastrous TP spectacle of Sammy Brownback's Red State Model. Your airy-fairy ideological dogma can't endure even the mildest dosages of reality. Your well-established pattern when presented with such incontrovertible facts that so upset you is to shriek, Liar, liar, liar!" and to hightail it away as fast as you can. As you invariably conclude that you are outmatched and decline to engage, it's not a seemly form of surrender that you repeatedly display.
I have to disagree with this. There are a couple of important issues at stake with a Republican Senate. It stops Obama from appointing who ever he wants to the Supreme Court, and it eliminates Harry Reid as Obama's pocket veto. A Republican House and Republican Senate will actually be able to pass legislation that will go to the President. Let him actually veto it and show where the true dysfunction is.
When we vote the establishment Republicans back in the nation still goes under. It is better that the nation be destroyed by Democrats than by establishment Republicans. Let the establishment Republicans like the detestable McConnell go down to defeat by withholding Conservative votes.
Politics is about compromise (until it's about civil war). If you think there will ever be a point in which the conservative Republicans (i.e Tea Party types) can win a Senate majority by themselves than you're badly mistaken. If you really really think that it's better for the entire country to be driven into ruin by Democratic policies than compromise, than that makes ruination all the more likely. My considerations are different. I have children and want to keep this country from going off the rails as long as possible. It's a losing battle of course; entropy always wins, but stalling the inevitable decline by a few years is worth compromising for.
I am okay with Establishment Republicans losing. The country is already off the rails. When McConnell loses because conservatives do not vote for him it will be another teachable moment for the rest of the establishment Republicans.
No it won't. They can't learn anything. They are the same people who actually think amnesty will be great for Republicans because Hispanics are "natural conservatives." You can't cure that sort of stupid regardless of what lessons you think you are teaching them.
Thank you. I shall. Do you believe that using the same strategy we have always used of voting for establishment Republicans will get us different results this time? Take a lesson from blacks who essentially vote as a bloc for the democrats. Has it ever helped the blacks? No. It has kept them in bondage. Will voting for RINOs ever help Conservatives? No. It keeps us in bondage. Free yourself. Free your children. Withhold your vote from the RINOs and defeat them.
I'm not trying to win. I'm trying to lose more slowly. Your way assures a much quicker loss. I think conservatives and tea party types have been doing exactly the right thing, pressing the establishment in the primaries. That's produced some wins for conservatives, and in others it's forced the establishment guys to halt or reverse course. Anti Amnesty conservatives never had the votes to stop the immigration reform bill if Boehner had brought it to the house floor. A combination of Democrats, establishment Republicans, and libertarian Republicans would have made sure it would have passed. But Boehner, who supports amnesty, never brought it to the floor the entire year because he was constantly being nipped at by conservatives. But if you think it's better to have Nancy Pelosi as speaker than Boehner... well I don't get how you think that works for you. But that's theoretical. The senate is for real this election. If you would rather have Harry Reid for another two years, you better hope all of those Supreme Court justices stay healthy, because they are close to having a quorum of Judges who despise the constitution and will vote on cases based only on the Democratic platform.
Although I believe your approach is completely wrong it is yours to choose. A few years ago I believed as you do. I have changed my mind. We must defeat the Progressives, liberals, socialist, fascists, Marxists and statists in the Republican party before we stand a chance of defeating the somewhat worse democrats. Than you for your post. I like the exchange.
I fully expect Republicans to control both houses of congress 2014-2016 in their discordant swan song. Despite their being loathed by the American public, a number of significant systemic factors conspire to put them on display and expose them like Sammy Brownback and his heralded Red State Model. Despite their repeated "outreach" lip service (that amounts to sticking their tongue out at America's diversity) once they are in the ascendancy in the Capitol, the Party's corporate toadies, TP wacko birds, and bible-humping evangelatollahs will rage in their outhouse divided against itself and continue to ignore the existential reality that being 90% White in a nation that is only 62% White when one's opposition party is 60% White does not bespeak representative democracy. For fans of "End Days", November 8, 2016 promises to be the day of reckoning. Co-captains McConnell and Boehner will go down with their sinking manure barge of state because the same factors that are so auspicious for them in '14 will conspire against them two years later, the demographic realities that dictate they can no longer compete nationally will only intensify, and their performance in the 114th Congress will effectively scuttle their ill-fated ark. 'Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished. (Successful gerrymandering should insure that the advantage that allowed the GOP to retain House control despite more Americans voting Democratic in congressional elections in 2012 will pertain until 2020, and Repubs tending to be elected by sparsely-populated states will continue to favour their Senate numbers as well, but it won't be enough.)
