Fingers are Hovering over Little Red Buttons

Just a quick opinion.

What is happening now in Ukraine isn’t unique. A regime change followed by a civil war and a US led NATO arming its preferred side based on US foreign policy. It didn’t work in Afghanistan or the Middle East, but this time the stakes have massively increased because it’s now confronting another nuclear power whilst pretending not to get involved.

Russia is becoming increasingly concerned about the amount of NATO interference and is now publicly warning NATO to back off.

In 2016, Russia conducted nationwide nuclear civil defence drills, currently its nuclear forces are on high alert and Jinping has warned China’s armed forces to get ready for war. Russia has not yet introduced mass mobilization because it’s not officially at war and it’s still at the low key stage.

This is all beginning to look nasty and one side has to give way. Will Russia (or China) accept being surrounded by aggressive NATO forces, missile bases on its borders and sanctions designed to wreck its economy? Or will the US order Ukraine to give Russia its buffer zone against NATO and calm the situation down. Ukraine itself has no say in the matter. Will Russia allow itself to be ruled by the European Union and Wall Street and become one of the former USSR economic basket case satellite countries that now surround it?

If the worst comes to the worst, the power of today’s nuclear weapons is that even in a limited exchange, only one nuclear explosion will put any western country back 500 years. That includes the US. We are not some highly technologically advanced civilization that can never be toppled. Many case studies of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 showed that in New Orleans when the power supply failed and the food supply chain collapsed, it took three days to descend into anarchy.

What is now happening in Eastern Europe isn’t a video game. Russia and the US are a long way from each other, but if this escalates out of control the nuclear missiles are only minutes away, from either side.

 

~ Yes this is all hypothetical of course.
If Russia , China or N Korea were ever to fire even one nuclear weapon I believe the powers that be in the USA would make certain that no hostile nation could ever fire a second one.
A single tactical strike against Ukraine, like Kyiv for example — might be different. But against the USA or a peaceful alley would likely be the end of that aggressor.
It appears China is stupid enough to do anything at this point. I doubt that Pootin's handlers would allow little man to do anything. Russia does have an IQ.

 

Not really concerned with any nuclear strikes from Russia or China. Coming from my fathers military background working at Magic Mountain and my own, Russia's (and China's) multi warhead delivery missiles are all liquid fueled meaning they take about 60-90 minutes to fuel and launch. Most would need to be fueled outside the silos as those venting gases will detonate if mixed. Fueling inside a silo with liquid fueled ICBMs is a lesson we have all learned with silo detonations. Including the US.

We have birds looking down and any attempt to fuel one would be targeted by a sub launched cruise missile to take it out. All of our ICBMs are solid rocket fueled and can be fueled under ground and launched in under 10 minutes. Neither Russia or China have first strike capability meaning they have no way of stopping a retaliation from the US.

 

It’s very true that if someone fired a nuclear missile at the US it would be the end for them. But 30 seconds after that, the return missiles fired would be the end of the US. It’s why nuclear powers are so wary of each other.

 

It’s 2022. I think you can be very sure there are Russian (and probably Chinese) nuclear submarines very close to the US. And of course, American ones very close to Russia and China. They can’t hit us with them might be some very hopeful last words.

 

Those would be isolated launches with single warhead solid rocket fueled missiles. Some may have multiple warheads but very limited in range.
They would be more of a tactical threat with very small target packages. Not saying any one of them wouldn't devastate a large city, they just don't have enough warheads or range to use preemptively.

And just an FYI, we know every location of every Russian and Chinese sub 24/7.

 

~ I'm not sure about any of this. Trump talked briefly about it regarding N. Korean. Other people who study this think the USA could very quickly cripple other nstions nuclear attacks. Apparently there are U.S. nuclear armed submarines in several undisclosed locations — one being assigned to the Sea of Japan.
However , we may all "glow" in the aftermath ...

~ I "hear" and read similar things. In particular many believe both Russia and China greatly exaggerate the nuclear weapons each have tested that are actually functional . Apparently lots of old stuff in Russia. As for "Made In China " — I think we all know about that .

 

That’s where the confidence is high bravado stems from. The US is not some magical land that can fire missiles but is somehow immune to incoming ones. North Korea was a joke. In repeated tests its missiles were unable to stay in the air for more than 30 minutes. What Trump tried to do is prevent them from continuing a nuclear weapons program and getting to the point where they had a delivery system.

 

And I would think the Russians know where the US one's are too. I think you're dreaming a bit here. The Russians now have hypersonic missiles and world beating radar systems. The old Soviet junk has long gone.

 

~ They are finding some of that old junk in Ukraine. Old remote control drones and older vehicles.
At any rate the USA is vulnerable. Send a virus. Fly aircraft into buildings. Poison the food supply. Get AOC elected to Congress. Knock out the internet with only CNN left on air. Lots of ways to destroy America without nukes ...

 

The chains of restraint are loosening .. US hegemony .. and ability to project power at a reasonable cost .. much long since vanished and is vanishing further - at this stage in the cycle are we .. witnessing the decline of the US economic empire.

Trigger fingers .. not yet twitching too much .. the main threat the use of a tactical nuke .. heard some interesting commentary out of "Pakistan" the other day on the situation in general - nuclear proliferation .. Iran ... are they any more dangerous with a nuke than Pakistan ? - if we take wild-card Israel out of the equation ?? .. Pakistan being pitched as in the "most likely to use" category .. which the Pakistan talking head did not like .. making interesting argument..

wither here or there ... Israel is the #1 Threat to use on my tally sheet at the moment .. Should the homeland be attacked... but if not number 1 .. then 2 .. not far down the list .. 3 at the furthest.. but my tally sheet has them at 1 ..

What we are seeing .. is an increase in territorial aggressivity with involvement of a nuclear nation... Russia in Ukraine .. China Tiawan .. Israel - Golan/Syria/Occupied Territories/Iran

Kosovo is flaring its nostrels red .. Russia and China will side with Serbia .. and that Nato Cluster Buck .. violating the rules now coming back to haunt ..

Israel has been attacking Syria - continuously since the insurrection/ "Holy Jihad" began in earnest in late 2011 ... a secondary war .. on the sidelines of all the other sick and disgusting conduct that went down in the Syrian War .. a team led by a Obama and his 40 Nation Coalition .. created a New Islamic State on the planet .. which thrived for 3 years .. until Russia spoiled the party. Israel Still Attacking .. even though new Islamic State was defeated in 2017.

See Iran Flaring UP .. and what happened to the Houthi's .. and El Saud in Yemen .. second war last decaded where Obama /Biden in League with Al Qaeda and Spawn .. of which El Saud is mother to beging with but.. thats a nother story.. now isn't it .. Biden trash talks his former Bum Buddy in Syria and Yemen .. then a week later on knees licking his balls .. begging for more oil.

Don't think tactical is a high probability at this point .. Putin's chess game is going very well .. desabilizing the global order .. is good for who ? and really bad for who .. Why involve nukes at this point.

Should the weaponary to Ukraine continue to escalate .. and the tide of the war turn sigfnificantly - a tide which is very much in Heir Vlad's direction at this point .. easily able to maintain a defensive position in area's secured .. at reasonable cost .. speaking of which .. Vlad has paid for the war on excess oil revenues .. gonna be big Bucks for this Years Grain Crop

Where is the downside .. .. a few Oligarchs lost their yachts - until such time as a cease fire is negotiated .. when they will get their toys back .. Plus interest ..

What's not to favor about Putin's position .. and what about the positions of the other players on the board ... China - India - France . .. The EU in genearal .. Africa .. USA

More going on here than meets the eye

 

, you sound like ur impressed by demos. Putin certainly was enough to pretend like he's gonna have them installed on one his failed navy ships.
Anyone can sell a multi billion dollar one off demo to a government. If that tech was viable,China or we the US would have it.

What evers gonna happen is going to happen, so best to cross that bridge when we get there.

If Putin is going to launch anything, caving into his demands won't stop him or others from land grabbing in the future.

These nations understand that the states have a standard operating procedure. It's never a surprise how we react. Putin knows when and how we will position our fleet once warnings are defied. If his plan is to use nukes, he may as well press the button now, because due to his actions alone NATO has expanded. Due to his actions alone Russia is sanctioned. If he hates his people, all he has to do is attack a NATO aligned country, or the states. The world knows how we will react.

Everything is going according to Putins plan. If part of that plan is to use nukes, well then that's what the Russian people voted for...total annihilation.

 

The only power that can end this immediately is the Russian Republic.

 

Notice how the Ukraine situation has gotten so bad under Biden's reign! What's the man so desperate to hide he'd risk nuclear war to cover it up? That goes for China as well. The Biden Family International Crime Syndicate must be stopped before it's too late!

 

The west is slowly collapsing. The industrial revolution has ended. We’re bankrupt. Our populations favourite pass time is drug abuse and sexual deviancy is the new norm. Our countries are no longer attracting the brightest and best, but the destitute and useless.

Our poverty rates are soaring and our life expectancies are declining. Our populations now look like the League of Nations and our armies favour social justice warriors as we try to make up the numbers with gays and ethnic minorities because very few others want to join. If we started a war with basket case Somalia we’d be now hard pressed to find anyone willing to fight in it. Our main concern now in life is to wonder if we’ve said anything that might offend anyone.

Even the Afghan’s quickly welcomed back the Taliban and breathed a sigh of relief to be rid of us and two years ago the Iraqi parliament voted unanimously for the US to leave Iraq. In a bizarre twist of fate, we, not Russia or China, are becoming the world’s unwanted pariahs. Let’s be honest, if there was a vote tomorrow, half the population would vote to fight against our political leaders, not support them. I strongly suspect in any coming major confrontation against an equally opposing force, this time we’re going to get and possibly deserve a bloody good pasting!

 

Do you get all your thread topics from Russian disinformation farms?

 

I write all my own stuff. Very rare I use a mainstream link to someone else’s opinion. Some can do it, some can’t. The one’s that can do, the one’s that can’t complain.

 

Let's all be very afraid of the Russians, eh?
Is that you, Aleksandr?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...-of-california-secession-movement/ar-AA10dHX5

 

Is that the one who made Americans vote for Trump?

 

Russians like to target scared, poorly educated people, so you may be right.

 

Can you please provide a list of regime changes followed by civil war due to US foreign policy? With sources, of course.

Russia has the right to be concerned and tell NATO whatever, just as NATO has the right to be concerned and tell Russia whatever. However, the current situation was neither desired, nor created by NATO. The Kremlin is aggressively interfering in sovereign countries' internal affairs for a long time, trying to bring to power far right, ultra-nationalist regimes, in order to undermine European unity, destroy US foreign alliances, and strike at the foundations of NATO. Now Russian leaders whine that sovereign countries defend themselves. Hypocritical, pathetic, and useless.

Threats, disinformation, victimization, lies, more threats, demonization and dehumanization of non-compliant players, and some more threats - these are the hallmarks of Russian propaganda. Can't trust anything coming out of the Kremlin propaganda machine. Even Putin can't seriously think that Russia is able to fight against most of the rest of the world, nuclear weapons or not.

 

Look at Libya and the Middle East. Ukraine, the NGO’s had a go in Hong Kong but that one didn’t work. No Pisa, it’s up to you to discover this, not for me to spend my time digging all this up again and have it followed by a silence and move on to something else. I’m not here to do your research for you.

The current situation was created by NATO as over the years it has crept up to Russia’s front door. Which ultra-nationalist regimes has Russia been supporting in Europe? Most of Europe is in the European Union. There are no ultra nationalist regimes in the EU.

I don’t think Putin wants or has said he wants to fight the rest of the world. The rest of the world aren’t on Russia’s border, NATO is. That’s the danger. Russia stacked up against NATO has no chance and there’s where that little red button comes into it. It’s not disinformation or propaganda to state the obvious.

 

You know, anyone is able and welcome to put up their own opinion on current events and at the moment, this is the biggest of them. From the early days of pretending to bring freedom and democracy to Middle East oil producing countries, to the present day as NATO tries to surround Russia, another energy producer. What’s happening isn’t exactly rocket science, is it.

Come on, who still thinks Iraq was invaded because Saddam had WMD’s, or Gaddafi who abandoned the dollar for the gold dinar was overthrown because he was tyrant?

During the industrial revolution much of the west grabbed the natural resources of other countries. In a post-industrial consumer society, the one thing we need is energy and what we’re seeing is an updated version of colonialism, but this time we surround other countries with armies and try to destroy their economies with sanctions to get what we need.

Currently, China is sitting on the sidelines, but be very sure it knows it’s next after Russia and in an all-out confrontation it will join Russia, not NATO.

 

Proves I'm not Alex then.

 

No, I'm not. Old or new the bulk of their ICBMs are liquid fueled which host its own problems. And as far as Russia knowing where are subs are and what you believe is my opinion, my company employees are all military members. We provide Drones to federal law enforcement and global militaries. 1 of my employees is a retired nuclear Sub Captain and the other employee worked for that captain as a sub driver.

Their task was to lay on the bottom of Russian naval ports monitoring traffic for 4 months at a time. My father was US Air Force missile command and I was a US Army 09W. I have a life long interest in airborne global weapon systems. Russian military expenses are so limited, their own fighter pilots only get 3 hours of flight time per month which is why they have paid such a heavy price in Ukraine. All you have to do is just look at what Ukraine has done to them to get an idea of how untrained and under funded Russian soldiers are.

Russia has lost some 50,000 killed or wounded soldiers in its invasion of Ukraine and nearly 1,700 tanks have been destroyed along with the losses in personnel and tanks, Russia has seen some 4,000 of its armored fighting vehicles destroyed since its February 24 invasion. All while Putin is jailing his own commanders for battlefield failures.

After months of fighting, it is Russia that is experiencing manpower shortages. Fearing protests, the Kremlin is reluctant to call for mobilisation and is forced to take extraordinary steps (e.g. extending the age limit for volunteers ready to join the war), opting for a covert form of recruitment, like through the use of reservists. Numerous cases of conscription offices being set on fire in Russia suggest strongly that many young people are opposed to being sent to the frontlines in Ukraine. Almost four million Russians have travelled away from Russia so far in 2022 alone, many choosing not to return for the time being. It is the largest such exodus since the Bolshevik revolution and could result in an enormous country-wide brain drain. something that is already being experienced in the IT sector.

Furthermore, the war has proven costly. On 27 May, Finance Minister Siluanov admitted that money, huge resources are needed for the special operation. He also confirmed that 8 trillion roubles (USD $120b) were required for the stimulus budget. Overall, unemployment is set to rise while GDP is unlikely to grow.

Putin has turned Russia into an international pariah and the country will not recover its reputation for a long time. In spite of the totalitarian nature of the Russian political system today, some signs of dissent (even amongst high ranking diplomats) show a growing recognition of these facts. As one astute Russian expert put it, Putin has amputated Russia’s future. Russia is a much weaker, less influential actor for the foreseeable future.

And all this exposure with just a fight in Ukraine.

The Russian navy, already badly depleted since the collapse of the Soviet Union, can’t quickly replace most of its existing nuclear submarine fleet, which is approaching the end of its collective lifespan. The outcome will likely mean a shrinking of the Russian nuclear submarine force in the years ahead.

By 2030, the bulk of Russia’s nuclear-powered attack and cruise-missile submarines will be in their mid-thirties at least with some pushing into their forties. For perspective, the three oldest active American attack submarines, the Los Angeles-class USS Dallas, Bremerton and Jacksonville, are all 36 years old and waiting to be decommissioned during the next three years.

Submarines wear out in old age, particularly due to hull corrosion. Another serious concern is corrosion affecting components inside the nuclear reactor compartments.

More to the point, naval vessels staying in service during old age require more maintenance and longer rest periods. Given that only around half of Russia’s submarine force (a very very charitable estimate) can be at sea at any given time, a force made up of mostly old boats will strain operational readiness.

Every Typhoon class Russian nuclear subs are retired.

The US military advisors and the Pentagon put Russian military aggression towards the US at less than 5%.