If the election were held today,, Biden would win much of the Midwest

I don't think it is the nation turning more blue. I do however think where the polls stand today shows you how much more disliked Hillary Clinton was by Americans than Biden is today. On election day 2016, 58% of Americans said they disliked Hillary while 60% disliked Trump which lead to 6% of the electorate voting third party against both. They are the only two major party candidates to be disliked or seen in a negative light, unfavorable by more than 50% of all Americans going back to Harry S. Truman. No other major party candidates ever had a negative, dislike rating above 50% before. The highest since Truman was Barry Goldwater back in 1964 at 47%.

Biden has 45% unfavorable today vs. Trump's 55% on average of all the recent polls. History shows folks usually don't vote for someone they dislike. If these numbers hold, Biden should win.

 

I still say Biden's worst case is 278 EV.

The Clinton Map and add back WI, MI, and PA.

 

This is Biden's election to lose. I think the VP choice will matter here. Matter of fact, I think Biden would be wise to actually start announcing some possible cabinet posts after the convention if he can... As for policy, he should stay the course with his own policies and not move to the left for Sanders.

 

The latest female to file charges against Biden for assault today may end up scuttling the USS Biden.

If so, Cuomo is willing to be drafted, and would sink Trump's chances almost immediately.

 

~ Will Ol´ Joe adopt many of Uncle Bernie's ideas ? We don't know as of yet but it could make a difference. I do believe many Sanders people will vote Trump. I also think Biden will be replaced at the last moment .
( brokered convention ? ) I wonder who the mystery candidate will be ... ❓
( Anthony Cuomo )

 

LOL. No.

Biden Will Be The Candidate and Joe Will WIN.

Any "Bernie people who vote Trump" will be an infinitesimal group that won't move the needle.

^The vote of the above group will be less consequential than a hummingbird burp in a hurricane.

 

If this latest sexual accusation against Biden unhorses him, a Cuomo-Klobuchar ticket will ride right over Trump.

 

Biden also has a slight lead in Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona and surprisingly trails Trump by just 2 points in Texas. They are also tied in Florida, all states Trump won in 2016. The only state that Clinton won that Trump leads in is New Hampshire. A whole 3 electoral votes.

There is a huge difference between the early polls of 2016 and those of today. The first major polls in 2016 were taken in June, we had 5 of them to average out between 1-7 June 2016 between Trump and Hillary. Their average was a 5 point lead for Hillary 42-37 with 13% stating they would voter third party and 8% undecided.

Today, 11 Apr 2020, Biden leads Trump 49-43 with 4% stating they'll vote third party and 4% undecided. The huge difference is back in 2016 there was a pool of voters 21% where Trump could improve himself, Clinton too which hadn't decided between the two. Today, that pool is down to 8%, not 21%. To really improve, Trump must take some votes away from Biden this year along with winning most of the undecided and convincing some third party voters to vote for him. In 2016, Trump didn't need to take any voters away from Clinton, he had that huge pool of 21% of the electorate to play with, not just 8%.

In the end Trump managed to take 9 of that 21%, Clinton gained 6 and the rest stuck with third party candidates, 6%. In short, Biden is in a much stronger position this year, today than Hillary Clinton was in 2016.

 

So what you seem to be saying the Democrats will elect a "geriatric nightmare" in order to win the midwest. As a midwesterner, I find that completely insulting yet encouraging that you have that as a basis of your hopes!

 

How does that make the fumbling bumbling Socialist Democrat Party look? They went through at least 10 candidates, voted them down, then selected a "geriatric nightmare, then went back to the pot for VP and selected an unvetted candidate that never endured the Presidential nomination process........Go for it!

 

It would be challenging for Socialist Democrats to come up with a list of accomplishments Quid Pro Joe has made in his lifetime in the Public Service. It is very easy to come up with a list of things he has been wrong on beginning with the Iraq War. The SDNC just runs him for what they see as "compromising surface appeal" knowing full well he would just be a figurehead for his "leftist globalist handlers"......that is the only reason they would put up with a "geriatric nightmare". This is why Obama has remained silent about "Plugs".

 

Stop the brain rot, where you have ignored the wild west wide open GOP primary season in 2016!

You just keep looking backwards to 2016, podjo, you keep doing that. That year, "Trump managed to take 9 of 21% up for grab, Clinton gained 6 and the rest stuck with third party candidates, 6%." Biden or Cuomo are far stronger today than Clinton because that differential is down to 8%, and Trump will need to take 6 to 7 of those points. I think he may get 3.

 

Must be your brain is rotting. Don't get so excited! You will lose...period.

 

Since the GOP are now a socialist democratic party, they are brothers in politics with the Dems.

 

Biden was more electable than Sanders was in the midwest even when it looked like Sanders was going to win the nomination.

 

Maybe they can keep him electable as long as he doesn't open his mouth. Oh wait.....Biden is going to have to go toe to toe w/ President Trump! That is so unfortunate!!

 

Trump trilled his way through the debates with Clinton. Does he really think we are that dumb to buy into his emotional jargon? Biden was able to put Paul Ryan to shame. What does Trump have to talk about? How he participated in this “evil” socialism with the stimulus checks? How he inherited a n economy that has been on the rebound since 2012? How he wasn’t able to provide enough testing for his citizens, pretty much leaving it to the states? How he attempted to blacklist Ukraine to get dirt of Biden with Rudy? It’s interesting how whenever Trump is grilled (and rightfully so), it’s suddenly the “media being unfair.”

Biden should exploit the scandals Trump has had in his first term in office, if we really do want a politician that isn’t corrupt.

I can see through Trump like glass. Can you?

 

You stick with Biden then. Is Jill his sister or his wife?

 

Biden just announced as the winner in Wisconsin by 30 points.
While he was at it he helped the democratic judge beat Trumps boy by 6 points.
Jill is his wife.
I hear Melania is about to get together with Trudeau though.

 

Not worried about Trudeau. It was a placating kiss. He is light in the loafers like a good portion of the left.

 

Big hands.

 

I believe when this process actually gets going, Biden will struggle. When Biden is forced to be in front of a camera and microphone it very well could be an issue for him. Right now, its easy peasy for Biden with America having very limited access to him. That will have to change. He is going to be forced to be front and center, take questions and stay on topic. I am not sure with his cognitive issues, he is capable of doing that. Time will tell....

 

She is beautiful. So beautiful even a "fruit" like Trudeau could suck it up and kiss a women.

 

Even before then, remember: Hillary had a 98.5% chance of winning according to polls.

 

Biden will make Trump every time look like a doddering fool.