It's time to buy Silver (again)

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by jmpet, Apr 2, 2011.

  1. jmpet

    jmpet New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,807
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Found a wonderful page for you folks to put in your favorites:

    http://bullion.nwtmint.com/

    I am predicting silver at $50 an ounce- once you take all the factors into account. Our dollars are worthless these days- they ain't worth squat in a savings account... pointless to have one nowadays.

    You've all been notified, guess we'll pick this thread up when silver hits $50 an ounce...
     
  2. LibertarianFTW

    LibertarianFTW Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2010
    Messages:
    4,385
    Likes Received:
    152
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    Silver would definitely be a good idea... I really should buy some.
     
  3. dujac

    dujac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2011
    Messages:
    27,458
    Likes Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    that's funny considering that dollars are what's used to buy silver


    i wouldn't buy anything from those guys


    Silver Stock Report


    People are not getting silver delivered on time by the NorthWest Territorial Mint.

    If this has happened to you, I'd like to hear it so I can tell others, or you can post your complaints the goldismoney.info forum, which is tracking info on many dealers:

    http://goldismoney.info/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=150

    If you plan to order silver from a dealer far away, you might want to review the "PM Dealer Feedback" link, above.

    NorthWest Territorial Mint is listed there, and they have a bad reputation, with 26 people giving them 1 star out of 5.

    State sues Auburn gold investment company, Northwest Territorial Mint
    Investors didn’t get products on time, state says

    http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/276620.html

    "The Attorney General’s Office, the Better Business Bureau and the Federal Trade Commission have received 82 complaints against the company, the state news release said."

    Attorney General sues NW Territorial Mint

    http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2008/02/04/daily21.html?jst=cn_cn_lk

    http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1205981676.php
     
  4. jmpet

    jmpet New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,807
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I OPped the link because they appartently are active in the market- they even mint their own bullion.

    And as far as "dollars for silver" goes, silver is a buy. Silver is going to hit $50 in the investable future... Buy physical silver for $40 an ounce today, sell for $50 in a few years. A 25% profit. Top that. Top a 6.25% ROI.

    I have been selling the gold I bought at $335 an ounce for $1450 physical today. The $335 I invested 10 years ago has appreciated 400%- a 40% ROI by owning physical gold.
     
  5. dujac

    dujac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2011
    Messages:
    27,458
    Likes Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Northwest Territorial Mint, Ross Hansen, Joseph Beitey Took my money, failed to deliver, refused repeated refund requests. Auburn Washington

    In short, these people are crooks, and were successfully sued by the WA Attorney General's Office for exactly this conduct. Unfortunantly, the AG's Office does not act in response to individual complaints, and surely I am not the only victim of their continuing unfair business practices, so I encourage anyone else cheated by these people to act now.

    read the rest here: www.ripoffreport.com
     
  6. Roon

    Roon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2010
    Messages:
    5,431
    Likes Received:
    97
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Silver is going to blow up eventually...as in sky rocket in price.

    JPMorgan is short more paper silver than there is physical silver in existence.

    If the CFTC ever decides to enforce position limits expect JPMorgan to go bankrupt and silver to sky rocket. Even if that doesn't happen more and more mints are running low or out of physical silver.
     
  7. jmpet

    jmpet New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,807
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Their spot buy/sells are valuable information- that is my whole point. Okay fine- don't buy from them, but they are publishing good information on silver. Sheesh.
     
  8. jmpet

    jmpet New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,807
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I am talking about PHYSICAL silver. Something you physically own. Forget about silver futures or stocks and all that... I am talking about the cost of having physical silver in your hand. Or safe.

    This market... the "cost of physically getting it to you" accounts for 10-25% of the cost of the silver you are buying. In other words, silver's worth $40 an ounce but it will cost you $46 to physically have it...

    And that is point we should be at- where we physically own a commodity, not a piece of paper... that's the buying price. And it's ALWAYS higher than the sell price- how could it not?
     
  9. dujac

    dujac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2011
    Messages:
    27,458
    Likes Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    i remember talk like that from the late 1970's

    it's amazing the things precious metal salesmen/investors will do and say to pump up the market

    but isn't it odd that they rarely talk about what comes after the pump up



    The Hunt Brothers and the Silver Bubble

    When the Hunt's had begun accumulating silver back in 1973 the price was in the $1.95 per ounce range. Early in '79, the price was about $5. Late '79 and early '80 the price was in the $50's, peaking at $54.

    Once the silver market was cornered, outsiders joined the chase but a combination of changed trading rules on the New York Metals Market (COMEX) and the intervention of the Federal Reserve put an end to the game. The price began to slide, culminating in a 50% one-day decline on March 27, 1980 as the price plummeted from $21.62 to $10.80.

    The collapse of the silver market meant countless losses for speculators. The Hunt brothers declared bankruptcy.

    www.buyandhold.com/education/history
     
  10. jmpet

    jmpet New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,807
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I didn't come here to argue or debate, I am just putting the shout out.
     
  11. dudeman

    dudeman New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2006
    Messages:
    3,249
    Likes Received:
    44
    Trophy Points:
    0
  12. dujac

    dujac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2011
    Messages:
    27,458
    Likes Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    i started collecting precious metals/coins in 1965

    i have an amazing amount of silver and gold cached away, but in the early 1980's i had an epiphany and stopped investing in it; i still have the coins, but over the last 30+ years, all that silver and gold hasn't ever given me any financial return; the stock market holdings that my investment manager has made for me, paid infinitely more dividends than the gold or silver


    [​IMG]


    i used to scour vast amounts of coins for silver dimes, quarters and ¢50 pieces, in the 1960's, '70's and part of the '80's, after that it wasn't worth the effort
     
  13. jmpet

    jmpet New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,807
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    0
    It IS worth the effort. I bought a $1000 bag of silver in 2001 for $3250... $4.54 an ounce (715 ounces in a $1000 bag of 90% silver coins). I kept the best 10% from the bag and sold the other 90% on eBay at a break even point. I ended up with 71 free ounces of silver.

    Sure it was work but coins are my hobby and I am happy to sort through thousands of coins for the good stuff. Those 71 free ounces are worth $3250 today.

    So I broke even 10 years ago but I have a three grand profit today to show for it.

    And puh-lease don't "Hunt Brothers" me- it's so ignorant of you. They tried to corner the market and they did for a few months, but even billionaires run out of money and with 700 million new ounces in circulation every year they couldn't have possibly kept it up. And yeah- silver was $50 an ounce 20 years ago but know what? It'll be $50 an ounce a few months to years from now, only this time for real.

    I am predicting $50 silver within the investable future. I am getting too much information from too many sources that tell me so. I started this thread to pass that info along, that's all.
     
  14. jmpet

    jmpet New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,807
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    0
    If anyone wants financial advice on silver I am happy to give it. I can show you how to make money on coins.
     
  15. dujac

    dujac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2011
    Messages:
    27,458
    Likes Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    nope, i haven't seen any silver coins in circulation for nearly 30 years
     
  16. jmpet

    jmpet New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,807
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Mississippi, right?
     
  17. GoSlash27

    GoSlash27 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2008
    Messages:
    5,871
    Likes Received:
    58
    Trophy Points:
    0
    The time to get in was really 2 years ago. IIRC I posted a thread about it. Then, as now, there was a lot of derision from the peanut gallery.
    I bought in at $13 an ounce and turned almost 200% pure profit in that time. You know what they say; "living well is the best revenge".:-D

    I expect the structural silver deficit combined with the boom in LCD production to create a severe shortage in the next couple years, so I'm not ready to cash out yet.
     
  18. jmpet

    jmpet New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,807
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    0
  19. dujac

    dujac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2011
    Messages:
    27,458
    Likes Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    new orleans, dallas and san francisco, too


    yep, mississippi is the 50th state for many things, but it's a good place to buy acreage and have a big forested buffer zone
     
  20. Flanders

    Flanders Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2010
    Messages:
    2,589
    Likes Received:
    38
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Interesting thread.

    First, I’d like to point that buying silver coins is different than “buying silver.” Silver coins have a vast customer base in that individual collectors often sell to fellow collectors. Even considering numerous coin dealers, an absence of central control dictates the coin market. Coin collecting is a hobby for millions as well as a profitable hobby and business for a few.

    Bullion is another matter entirely. The bullion market is tightly controlled by refineries who primarily sell to industries that use silver. Individuals interested in bullion should remember this: The price of silver quoted on the Commodities Exchange is the institutional seller’s price. Individuals looking to sell silver bullion in there possession will get a hell of a lot less than the quoted price when they sell. On top of that there is a refining charge should an individual sell directly to a refinery, and that’s assuming the refinery doesn’t give the seller a short count.

    Also, the craftsmanship involved in fashioning silver or gold jewelry is inconsequential to anyone in the business when they are buying. Craftsmanship, or beauty if you prefer, counts for nothing when a professional is doing the buying no matter how much you may think it enhances the value of your favorite ornament should you decide to sell. It’s all going to be melted down anyway.

    If investors buy and sell on the exchange brokers take a commission on both ends.

    The important factor in predicting the price of silver (and gold) is reclamation. Precious metals have been reclaimed over and over again down through the ages. That means it is possible for the average person to own a piece of jewelry containing a grain of silver that was mined in ancient Egypt.

    Parenthetically, there is a grain of truth in the pawnshop come-on “We buy old gold.” The question is: How does the pawnbroker know it is old gold?

    Photography once used the most silver by far. That includes medical X-rays. The silver is reclaimed from medical x-rays worldwide.

    I’m not sure if photography still uses the most silver what with scientists inventing more ways to produce photographs without using silver nitrate. People now take pictures with cell phones and print copies of the pictures off their computers; so it’s only a matter of time before silver imaging photography becomes a thing of the past.

    In addition to photography copper/silver wire is being replaced by fiber optics in transmission lines.

    There is a small percentage of silver in all copper wire. Cell phones are already reducing the need for telephone lines in new homes. Every wire in every older building contains silver. Think about the total tonnage after it is reclaimed. And it will be reclaimed along with the copper.

    Without photography, and copper/silver wiring, there is so much silver in the world my guess is that in the very near future the price of silver will come down so much governments will return to minting silver coins just to stabilize the market.
     
  21. GoSlash27

    GoSlash27 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2008
    Messages:
    5,871
    Likes Received:
    58
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Now here's why you're wrong: The vast majority of silver on the surface is in forms that are not economically feasible to reclaim even at $1,000 per ounce. We're talking mirrors, switch contacts, plumbing, jewelry, and fillings.
    The price per ounce must be extremely high before any of that is going to return to the market, so it simply doesn't count. It may as well be on the other side of Pluto.
    As for mining, silver doesn't come out of silver mines. It comes out of *copper* mines. Which is to say that silver is a sideline of businesses that make the bulk of their revenue in the copper market. Silver would have to trade at an insanely high rate before these copper mines could justify flooding their primary market.

    There has been a structural deficit in silver since the early '40s. That is to say that we have consumed more silver for the last 50 years than we've pulled out of the ground. The surface reserves have dried up and that's why you've seen the price triple in the last 2 years (exactly as I predicted).
    But it's not quite done yet. There will soon be an explosion in the silver market very similar to '79. It will *temporarily* push silver to highs rivaling gold. After the rush, it should settle down to roughly 1:15 of gold.
     
  22. Flanders

    Flanders Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2010
    Messages:
    2,589
    Likes Received:
    38
    Trophy Points:
    48
    To GoSlash27: The percentage of silver that returns to the ground is so miniscule compared to the silver supply it is hard to arrive at a number.

    Mining increases the supply of silver. As things stand today, reclamation could fill the industrial need for silver.

    Of course, there are other uses besides photography and electrical. Even in those applications a percentage is reclaimed.

    All unwanted silver is profitable in reclamation although a much smaller percentage is reclaimed than in photography and electrical.

    Turning jewelry into bullion is less expensive than other forms of refining.

    As far as I know, dental fillings is the only silver that is not reclaimed to some degree.

    As for mirrors: Only specialized mirrors use silver. Common household mirrors use aluminum.

    And I should have said:

    “With photography, and copper/silver wiring, demands decreasing there will be so much silver in the world . . .”
     
  23. GoSlash27

    GoSlash27 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2008
    Messages:
    5,871
    Likes Received:
    58
    Trophy Points:
    0
    ^ There's a whole lot in there that's just plain factually incorrect.
    Buyer beware, etc.
     
  24. GoSlash27

    GoSlash27 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2008
    Messages:
    5,871
    Likes Received:
    58
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Funny that during the week we were all sitting here debating whether silver is a sound investment, it's price has shot up another 8%.
    Today's price is $41 per ounce. The all-time record high is $48. Once we break that, I expect the market to take off like a Saturn booster as the speculators start depriving industry of stock. That will be a temporary condition because the market won't actually justify the prices. The folks who got in early will make out like fat bandits, and the ones who were late to the party will get soaked.
    This is like a game of musical chairs; I've already got my seat. If anyone is considering doing this, they'd best commit to doing it right now; the proverbial "s" is about to "htf".
     
  25. OldMercsRule

    OldMercsRule Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2011
    Messages:
    487
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    18

    Hmmmmmmmm......... ever heard of the "odd lot" theory?

    I suggest ya go to the library or hit the ol' books PRIOR ta putin' serious $ into any bullion at the current prices. (N' I only have one functional brain cell). :fart:

    If ya fancy yersef as an "ace speculator"..... go ahead n' play, butt: I'd ponder playin' with the ETFs where you can trade unlimited shares fer $7.00 at the brokerage firm I do bidness with. :fart:

    Ya see.....physical metals have significant shipment costs n' storrage issues. If yer near the end of a parabolic move, (as ya could be :omg: ), these costs will bury ya 'till the next commodity cycle, (as many of me former clients were burried in 1980).

    Speakin' of cycles.... (commodity cycles), do some serious homewerk on those when yer lookin' into the "odd lot theory".... (if yer brain werks at all)..... after ya do yer home werk.... ya may loose a weeeeeee bit of enthusiasm fer followin' lemmings over cliffs n' such.

    Hard tellin' not knowin'.......................................

    THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

    Me vastly overpriced $.02. JR :mrgreen:

    BTW: that was a very good site ya linc(ed) fer us fools ta play with. Thanks.
     

Share This Page