Latest AGW Guess

From Science Daily, comes this piece that -almost- accepts the facts that the experts still don't know what's causing all this extreme weather.

Read more @ http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140811170106.htm

 

LOLOLOLOL....."guess"???.....the anti-science and scientifically ignorant deniers are sooooo desperate....

Here's the actual article.....with the title the deniers want to omit....

Trapped atmospheric waves triggering more weather extremes: Trend expected to continue
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
August 11, 2014
Weather extremes in the summer -- such as the record heat wave in the United States that hit corn farmers and worsened wildfires in 2012 -- have reached an exceptional number in the last ten years. Human-made global warming can explain a gradual increase in periods of severe heat, but the observed change in the magnitude and duration of some events is not so easily explained. It has been linked to a recently discovered mechanism: the trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere. A new data analysis now shows that such wave-trapping events are indeed on the rise. "The large number of recent high-impact extreme weather events has struck and puzzled us," says Dim Coumou, lead author of the study conducted by a team of scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). "Of course we are warming our atmosphere by emitting CO2 from fossil fuels, but the increase in devastating heat waves in regions like Europe or the US seems disproportionate." One reason could be changes in circulation patterns in the atmosphere. By analysing large sets of global weather data, the researchers found an intriguing connection. An important part of the global air motion in the mid-latitudes normally takes the form of waves wandering around the globe, called Rossby Waves. When they swing north, they suck warm air from the tropics to Europe, Russia, or the US; and when they swing south, they do the same thing with cold air from the Arctic. However, the study shows that in periods with extreme weather, some of these waves become virtually stalled and greatly amplified. While a few warm days have little impact, effects on people and ecosystems can be severe when these periods are prolonged.

"Behind this, there is a subtle resonance mechanism that traps waves in the mid-latitudes and amplifies them strongly," says Stefan Rahmstorf, co-author of the study to be published in the Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Using advanced data analysis, the new study shows that when certain resonance conditions are fulfilled, the atmosphere tends to develop anomalously slowly propagating waves with large amplitudes, typically associated with extreme weather on the ground. An important finding is that this phenomenon is occurring more often: After the year 2000, it has been almost twice as frequent as before. "Evidence for actual changes in planetary wave activity was so far not clear. But by knowing what patterns to look for, we have now found strong evidence for an increase in these resonance events." Why would these events be on the rise? Both theory and the new data suggest a link to processes in the Arctic. Since the year 2000, the Arctic is warming about twice as fast as the rest of the globe. One reason for this is that because the white sea ice is rapidly shrinking, less sunlight gets reflected back into space, while the open ocean is dark and hence warms more. "This melting of ice and snow is actually due to our lifestyle of churning out unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels," says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, co-author of the study and director of PIK. As the Arctic warms more rapidly, the temperature difference to other regions decreases. Yet temperature differences are a major driver of the atmospheric circulation patterns that in turn rule our weather. "The planetary waves topic illustrates how delicately interlinked components in the Earth system are." Schellnhuber concludes: "And it shows how disproportionately the system might react to our perturbations."

 

RT eh?

 

Even the scientists have all sorts of differing explanations. That should be a clue to you about what is really not known.

 

While there are a lot of details about the Earth's climate systems that are not yet completely understood, these are a lot of things about the climate and the reasons for the current abrupt warming trend that are indeed "known" quite well by the scientists but that you MOD EDIT - Rule 3 foolishly deny for un-scientific ideological/economic/political reasons that have nothing to do with the well developed scientific understanding of these issues.

 

whew!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Childishly calling people denier cultists is one of the problems spawned by politics and not science. Skepticism is the basis for science. Consensus is the basis for politics. There is not even an agreement that CO2 drives climate like Murray Salby, who was drummed out of Macquarie University because he dared to question the CO2 centric warming, along with some of the best written science to show his work. Only in the the computer models does that appear to happen. 17+ years of no warming and even some cooling with other scientists predicting cooling for the next 30 years due mainly to sun and oceans goes unnoticed due to the actual cult of CAGW.

 

That dude wouldn't know a clue if he invented it!

 

Denier cult drivel. The science is very clear and well supported. Salby's junk science was thoroughly debunked. The world has not stopped warming, as a great deal of scientific research confirms. Your predictions of cooling are crackpot nonsense.

There has been no pause in global warming. The planet as a whole has continued to warm up. The pause that scientists have discussed refers to an apparent slowdown in the rate of near-surface air temperatures but that turned out to be the result of an underestimation of the speed with which the Arctic is heating up, based on the somewhat incomplete HadCRUT data (see the first article in the list below). The basic laws of physics combined with the direct satellite measurements of the incoming solar energy versus the amount of energy the Earth is radiating away into space demonstrates conclusively that the Earth has continued to receive more energy from the sun than it can shed into space, so the accumulation of heat has continued unabated. The oceans have always been absorbing over 90% of the solar energy the Earth receives but recently scientists have discovered that even more of the excess heat that the elevated levels of CO2 have been retaining has been going into the oceans and moving into even deeper ocean waters too.


Global warming since 1997 more than twice as fast as previously estimated, new study shows
13 November 2013

Apparent pause in global warming blamed on 'lousy' data
European Space Agency scientist says annual sea level rises since 1993 indicate that warming has continued unabated
13 June 2014

Global warming is unpaused and stuck on fast forward, new research shows
10 December 2013

Global warming ucontinues with no slow down

March 27, 2013

Global Warming Is Rapidly Accelerating
12/31/2013

New Research Confirms Global Warming Has Accelerated
25 March 2013

Global Warming is Accelerating, but it's Still Groundhog Day at the Daily Mail
17 April 2013

In Hot Water: Global Warming Has Accelerated In Past 15 Years, New Study Of Oceans Confirms
MARCH 25, 2013

UN: GLOBAL WARMING IS ACCELERATING, AND WITH DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCES
July 3, 2013

Accelerated Warming Driving Arctic Into New Volatile State
December 5th, 2012

New Research Confirms Global Warming/Ocean Acidification Accelerating Faster Than Previously Thought
MAR 27, 2013

Global Warming Accelerating, Say Scientists
ABC News Video

GLOBALLY.....

* Sixteen years ago 1998 became the hottest year on record by a considerable margin.

* All of the hottest years on record have occurred since 1998.

* The coldest years since 1998 are still hotter than all of the hottest years before 1998.

* Currently 2010 is tied with 2005 as the hottest year on record, in records going back to the 1800s.

* 2013 was the fourth hottest year on record.

* The last decade was the hottest decade on record, as was the decade before that and the decade before that, in turn.

* This last November 2013 was the hottest November on record globally.

* This last April 2014 was tied with April 2010 as the hottest April on record globally.

* This last May was the hottest May on record globally.

* This last June was the hottest June on record globally.

* This last June was the 352nd consecutive month (29 years) with global average temperatures higher than the average temperature for that month, averaged over the entire twentieth century.

* The Arctic ice cap is still rapidly melting away.

* Large areas northern permafrost are still rapidly melting.

* Greenland and Antarctica are still losing ice mass at increasing rates.

* The large majority of mountain glaciers are still rapidly melting and disappearing.

* Sea levels are still rising at an accelerating rate.

GLOBALLY....this is the actual temperature record.....


Global temperature (annual values) in the data from NASA GISS (orange) and from Cowtan & Way (blue), i.e. HadCRUT4 with interpolated data gaps.
One can clearly see the extreme year 1998, which (thanks to the record-El Niño) stands out above the long-term trend like no other year. But even taking this outlier year as starting point, the linear trend 1998-2013 in all four data sets is positive. Also clearly visible is 2010 as the warmest year since records began, and the minima in the years 2008 and 2011/2012. But just like the peaks are getting higher, these minima are less and less deep.
(source: RealClimate)

 

oh well, nothing ventured nothing gained eh? Thanks for wasting space on the thread again.

 

If you understood what is not known and how large the uncertainties are you would not be so smug in your blind attitude. If you understood what the models do not model and what they cannot do, you would not be so smug in your blind attitude. BTW, we have a bumper crop for corn and soybeans this year.

 

It has never been debunked but it has been denied due to politics.

From City Journal

 

And once again you have no answer, no rebuttal, no response to the many points raised in post #9 offering unmistakable evidence for continued global warming, nor to the many articles about published scientific research studies that confirm that continued and possibly accelerating warming.

All you have is blind denial of reality based on a kind of cultic faith in the misinformation, lies, and pseudo-science the propaganda pushers for the fossil fuel industry have spoon fed into your head.

 

s0n, your links and posts do not provide any evidence of global warming. I have asked and asked and asked for you and your peers to provide the evidence that shows what 120 PPM does to temperatures or climate and you fail. I have no more to add, I say you lie, that you are arguing a point to which you cannot prove. Until such evidence is produced the same question will be asked. To post trivial information about what is expected or what ought to happen is not evidence, sorry. BTW, have you seen the latest on the WUWT on the recent bill nye, al gore experiment? go read. basically they are pointing out that the tests are invalid. Go take a read, if you truly want to understand what is happening to the globe.

 

I have a question.

Just read an article where ONE volcano in Hawaii spews hundreds of tons of sulfer dioxide every DAY into the atmosphere. Multiply that by the number of active and semi-active volcanoes around the world - how does that compare to so-called man-made emissions?

 

Sulfur dioxide (not sulfer dioxide) has a cooling effect on the planet from reflecting away solar energy in the stratosphere. Volcanoes can put a large pulse of SO2 into the atmosphere that will cause a several year decline in temperatures.

It is the carbon dioxide that mankind creates that is causing the global warming problem and in that area mankind's emissions dwarf all of the volcanic emissions.

Volcanic versus anthropogenic CO2 emissions
United States Geological Survey
Do the Earth’s volcanoes emit more CO2 than human activities? Research findings indicate that the answer to this frequently asked question is a clear and unequivocal, “No.” Human activities, responsible for a projected 35 billion metric tons (gigatons) of CO2 emissions in 2010 (Friedlingstein et al., 2010), release an amount of CO2 that dwarfs the annual CO2 emissions of all the world’s degassing subaerial and submarine volcanoes (Gerlach, 2011).

The published estimates of the global CO2 emission rate for all degassing subaerial (on land) and submarine volcanoes lie in a range from 0.13 gigaton to 0.44 gigaton per year (Gerlach, 1991; Varekamp et al., 1992; Allard, 1992; Sano and Williams, 1996; Marty and Tolstikhin, 1998 ). The preferred global estimates of the authors of these studies range from about 0.15 to 0.26 gigaton per year. The 35-gigaton projected anthropogenic CO2 emission for 2010 is about 80 to 270 times larger than the respective maximum and minimum annual global volcanic CO2 emission estimates. It is 135 times larger than the highest preferred global volcanic CO2 estimate of 0.26 gigaton per year (Marty and Tolstikhin, 1998 ).

 

prove that man made CO2 causes problems. Where is your evidence that any CO2 added causes temperature issues or climate issues. All you have is information from a scientist that speculate that. 120 PPM of CO2, how much heat does that add to the atmosphere? What about 50 PPM? 280?

aaant, you fail!!!!

 

Of all the CO2 in the air, it is estimated that man contributes 3 to 5 percent of it. CO2 comprises approximately 0.04% of the atmosphere. That means we are allegedly contributing 0.0012 to 0.002 percent of the CO2 and this allegedly will change the climate.

 

Another pathetic and very desperate denial of science. 'JC456' endlessly repeats this idiotic denier cult propaganda meme no matter how many times the vast amount of experimental evidence is shown to him, so everybody just gave up even trying. This kind of denial of scientific basics is impenetrable.

 

So you make a claim you can't back and I'm the idiotic denier. Hah!!!! ok bubba. Just know you have no evidence to support your statement. FAIL

First you have to supply an experiment!!!

 

Another very silly denier cult propaganda meme that tries to play on people's ignorance of the scientific understanding of the effect of greenhouse gases. The fact is that mankind's activities have raised atmospheric CO2 levels by at least 43% so far, from 280ppm in pre-industrial times to over 400ppm currently. The last time CO2 levels were this high was 15 million years ago when sea levels were over a hundred feet higher than today.

 

Yet it really is not clear if it is rising because it has been warming since all records of CO2 follow temperature rises. It has been higher, and colder than now so to state that it is a given, that CO2 is the temperature control, when observational science is showing counter to the hypothesis, is just blowing smoke. Without proof, you have nothing.

 

So what? What is your point? Since you have no evidence to support any of your claim, what is it you're trying to say that is so important you're on here?

 

More desperate blind denial of science from ignorant non-scientists who are deceived by the Dunning-Kruger Effect into imagining that they understand all this better than the PhD's who been studying this for decades.

 

More desperate blind belief in computer models instead of observational science. You can deny observational science to your hearts content but it does not make anyone else look silly. Maybe you don't read any other science but what is politically correct or on CAGW advocacy blogs.