May's last roll of the dice:

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by cerberus, Dec 11, 2018.

  1. Oddquine

    Oddquine Well-Known Member

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    And therein lies the problem. the fact that we are heading off a cliff-edge and the only response from Brexiteers is "And you never know - there may be clients further afield when we get out of this charade". That is called uncertainty...and, given the length of time it appears to take to negotiate trade agreements, fairly long-term uncertainty....and that uncertainty is where The Don's problems seem to lie, because if there was anything like a plan, after nearly two years of negotiation, he would not still be wondering what he should be doing. Big businesses have the ability and wherewithal to hedge their bets, by moving or getting ready to move part of their production to an EU member country, while relatively small/small businesses don't tend to have that option...but whatever the deal made in the end.....the jobs which have already gone from the UK by the end of March 2019 to ensure EU access won't be coming back.

    Interesting speech from Sir Ivan Rogers...well worth a read..though more realistic than optimistic
    https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/
     
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  2. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Was reading yesterday that the neo liberal desire for Brexit is based on the reality that there are regulations within the EU. They want out to be totally free with what they do. The total freedom with smaller markets they reckon will make them more money. God help British workers.
     
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  3. Oddquine

    Oddquine Well-Known Member

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    Thing is that there is no total freedom in markets, so where they are going to find countries who don't want something for signing up to a trade agreement with UK....even if it is only easier immigration to the UK for their citizens. If there was a totally free market...why is there a WTO? Can't, myself, see a lot of difference between the WTO and the EU in the trading sense....both require agreements as to the tariffs for trade in goods,services and intellectual property rights, both require rules and regulations governing those agreements and both have methods of settling disputes. Only difference I can see is that the WTO hasn't made rules about off-shore tax-havens.
     
  4. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The fact of the matter is that we don't know one way or the other what the future would be, so it all rather depends upon the amount of fear-mongering, and how much confidence we have in ourselves as a trading nation. As to 'Sir Ivan Rogers' - I have no idea who he is nor want to know, so I obviously don't know if his view is agenda-driven or altruistic. Of course that applies to all commentators, which is why I always read between the lines of their narratives, then make up my own mind: but when neither side knows what lies ahead - as is the case? - all we can do is be positive and get on with it, or ignore the referendum (at our peril?) and stay put. I'll go with the 'nothing ventured, nothing gained', and still believe it would all settle down to almost normal when the car manufacturers - and other exporting manufacturers - start seeing their profits adversely affected - they'll tell Junker and the odious Tusk to take a long walk on a short pier.
     
  5. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Looks like the WTO des not have much in the way of regulations or enforcing of same.

    but where it does it is not necessarily helping the UK

    And as to services


    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09654313.2018.1501469

    Apart from that any regulations are hard to enforce.

    It looks like for England the one place which is likely to make money is London due to financial services which are already International. Well London and the South East where all the money has been put in the last few decades. It is weird, the areas which voted for Brexit are going to be the areas hardest hit and London who voted to stay will again do best but it looks like the most loony nightmare. We were lucky being born when we were Oddquine, the future just looks a disaster according to this article. They like others I have looked at say that the vote should have been Neo Liberalism or Not as that is where the problem comes from. A quote at the end of the article
    . The people suffering from austerity who voted to leave the EU were the ones most helped by the EU and if that article is anything to go by the situation is going to get much, much worse for them. It was neoliberalism they should have voted out rather than playing into its hands
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2018
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