You can view the live results from NPR here: https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200222-nevada/ The Democratic State Party has still not released any official results. But with roughly 2% reporting based on independent reporters, Bernie is ahead with around 50% of the votes. Biden is 2nd place and none of the others are above double digits, but these results are coming in at a glacial pace.
And Bernie is increasing his lead even more as more comes in(ROFL.). It's time to call Bernie what he is: The presumptive Democratic Nominee. The only question is, when will the others recognize or accept that fact. If Bernie wins a couple more at that rate, he will secure the nomination regardless. It's time to start leveraging for positions in a Sanders administration.
Battle of the hypocrites, liars and losers. There isn't a single decent candidate in there. Go Bernie.
True. But as a Revolutionary Nationalist, for me there is advantage in Bernie. If Bernie ends up winning the election, we will secure one thing even if on the opposite side of the coin; An anti-oligarch government. And if the oligarchy attempts the same thing with Bernie, we will have the political ammunition necessary to finally establish a pure people's rule over the oligarchy. Because it's no longer a "resistance". It's a resistance of we the People. They will see what we saw during the Trump Administration.
I was reading they may have the similar technology issues as Iowa in getting accurate and timely results. Now that results are coming out, it sound like things are going smoothly. Andrew Yang, CNN commentator mentioned that caucuses have about 5% turnout versus 20% for primaries, suggesting that results might be different if some states didn't use a system which is difficult to get people to the polls.
More here... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/22/nevada-caucuses-biden-sanders-116719 There are reports of low turnout. Several caucus goers have said they were asked to sign NDA's, and refused. The DNC does not want it getting out how corrupt and inefficient they are.
I read they tried to "teach" caucus goers over the last several weeks how to use i-pads etc and that it was going very poorly.
As long as the "moderates" all stay in the race, Bernie is likely to get a plurality of electors (for a brokered convention) and perhaps a majority. Biden and Buttigieg have almost the same number of votes in total to Sanders singular results. If they get down to Sander versus one other candidate, Sanders would have a minority of votes.
That's the presumption in 2016, but that presumption held false. Even as others dropped out, more of them went for Trump. Regardless of the numbers, Sanders has outperformed the Democratic field. If one takes the true lessons from 2016, one acknowledges that Sanders has the overwhelming lead, and that most people's 2nd choice or third choice is Sanders. He has this nomination solidly in the bag.
I saw a video clip from The Hill saying that. The DNC was doing a training session remotely. They were saying the sound was bad and trainees couldn't even hear them in trying to learn how to use the app. Also, some precinct heads are older and not familiar with technology like Google spreadsheet apps.
I'm not so sure. Some Republicans thought Rubio should have dropped out before Florida voted to push more votes to Cruz. (Kasich sitting around forever didn't matter though.) Anyway the "what if candidates dropped out" is just musing. Vanity will prevent them from doing what is good for the party. No one is expected to drop out before Super Tuesday. So you are correct that Sanders will likely hold a solid lead.
I expect that isn't "all" the voters of color in that precinct. Haha! This is the first year that Nevada held early voting and 79,000 turned out, which is higher than some of their previous caucuses.
Sanders is holding a rally this evening in San Antonio TX. CNN showed a long line of people who had been waiting for hours ahead of the event. Gotta' hand it to the old socialist. He is the only Dem candidate who can fill up an arena.
The problem with the "what if candidates" dropped out, is that you're basically trying to determine future voting probability(IE: If my guy drops out, I'll vote for the this guy.) There's two problems with that. A: Most people tend to go with a overwhelming favorite. Ideologies matter less and less the more overwhelming the opposition is. Even if they drop out, you're not really recreating a natural 1 v 1 anymore. Those voters now have a predisposition towards the favorite(then Trump, now Sanders.). B: As I said earlier, those voters may very well have an affinity towards Sanders, especially if again it appears overwhelming. Let's presume in the best case scenario that the establishment voters are split between Sanders/Establishment. This means that for every vote a dropped out candidate gives to an establishment candidate, another vote is going to Sanders. Meaning there's no headway made at all. It's already too late for the establishment, they've been defeated.
CNN saying right now that the caucus chairs are getting busy signals trying to call results in to DNC.
I think the only voters who would switch to Sanders are some of the Warren voters. Buttigieg/Biden/Klobuchar/Steyer people are likely to vote for the last one of those who stay in (most likely Buttigieg/Biden). There is a strong sense of unity in the party to "Vote blue no matter who," to get Trump out. Sanders' voters are the only group who are likely to sit out. Anyway, I generally agree with you that this is Bernie's race.
What does it say about dem candidates if their #1 pick is an independent, and their #2 is a Republican?
Actually I wonder how many republicans crossed over to vote for Komrad Bernie. I know I will be doing that on super Tuesday.
CNN is saying 9% reporting with nearly 13000 votes so far (12912) on the first ballot. Doing some napkin math would indicate that is a total turnout of around 143.5k, which is a tremendous increase over 2008 (~115k) and an even bigger increase over 2016 (~85k).
