I'm not reading much into Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, either, but it's starting to look like it's Bernie's race to lose. One of the things I've been watching is the vote count between the lunatic Left (Sanders & Warren) and the more "centrist" loons (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar & Steyer) and here are the results: Lunatic Leftist Fringe: 49,923 votes, 14 delegates Lunatic Leftist Center: 45,779 votes, 6 delegates Lunatic Leftist Fringe: +4144 votes, +8 delegates The reason I'm watching this is with a brokered convention in mind. This is looking more ominous for the "establishment" Dims who don't want Sanders getting the nomination...
I think there will be a brokered convention, but that's just gut feeling....no research at this point. Super Tuesday will be the first day that we get a better idea of which direction this is going. The black vote is wavering on Biden, but who knows where they're going next. Possibly to Trump.
I think Sanders will pick up most of Biden's defectors although some have expressed an interest in Warren.
Don't you know how the American Presidential elections work? The winner is determined by the States. The national popular vote is irrelevant. If all of the Blue States that voted for Hillary in 2016 vote for the Dem candidate it only requires an additional 38 votes to win the election. That can be done in a number of ways. It is not necessary to win all States since only some matter.
There is a theory that Bloomberg's money might buy enough votes/delegates to achieve a brokered convention, and that Hillary and Bloomberg may be negotiating a deal where she runs all the country's foreign and domestic policy decisions as VP, and President Mike just acts as figure head, letting her call the shots. "Conspiracy theory" perhaps, but not an unbelievable one.
I mean I'm for the American people so if they majority of them in the Democrat party want Bernie then that's probably what outta happen. If the moderates in the Democrat party really think Bernie is too progressive and bad for the party I really think they shouldn't be so worried about Sanders message because it'll fizzle out. Moderates taking a proactive approach in stopping the progressives is destined to back fire on the moderates imo
Southern states definitely... That's why I think announcing Bernie the winner before the Southern state primaries is too hasty
Looks like all the 36 Nevada Delegates have been assigned. Nice win for Bernie. Decent attempt at recovery for Biden. Consolation prize for Buttigieg. Bernie 24 Biden 9 Buttigieg 3
Total delegates awarded across 3 contests so far = 100. Bernie has 45%. Others have swept up the crumbs of the remaining 55%.
I must (respectfully) DISAGREE. That is a Totally 100% UNBELIEVABLE "Theory". It may be slightly "More Believable" if you replaced Hillary with "Bat Boy", but even then it is a stretch. As far as the topic and the results in NV? They have only selected Less Than 3% of Delegates, and Bernie still has a long way to go.
While this is still way too soon to make any prognostications if the delegate allocation continues along these lines then Bernie is within 5% of reaching his goal of having 1900+ pledged delegates for the convention. However I suspect that we will see a number of candidates dropping out after S/Tues which will alter the allocations for the remaining states. What is working FOR Bernie is his established ground game of organized and trained Progressives. If he wins the nomination then he is already ahead in the GE because all of those positions will be staffed and trained and ready to go from Day 1.
Nevada is a wrap. There's another debate tonight in SC, and Bernie will be the target. Bloomberg got murdered in the debate last week. It's Bernie's turn to see if he can survive the daggers.
