Riddle me this Vaxman

I dont know of any country that tested how many people got covid and simply got over it, do you? How does that compare with the usual influenza/virus death rate? I have difficulty imagining how they would even set such a program up, can you? It seems to me several of the 3 letter acronyms are pushing falsified data political conclusions? That had devastating consequence on our lives and economy? I dont see how they can possibly compute the efficacy of the vax without knowing this data with 'reasonable' certainty. Id wager 'all' countries face this issue?

 

AFAIK, the 3 letter gov agencies have an obligation written right into law to provide accurate data in anything they publish. Im not sure it was ever a reality but it sounds like this is certainly no longer the case? Your link was a very good read, educational, hope you continue with this.

 

I don’t know much about the law, but I would hope that’s the case. The loophole would be this is omission of information, not disinformation.

But yes, the CDC has on numerous occasions published information that conflicts with known, confirmed science and data. Their 9 month+ long published advisories against use of N95 masks based on claimed shortages when there was an oversupply of the masks is one of the most egregious examples.

And the lack of integrity is not new with Covid. The CDC has been under reporting influenza deaths by a factor of at least three for decades while simultaneously advocating for annual influenza vaccinations that decrease the efficacy of subsequent influenza vaccinations to the point the elderly receive little if any benefit from influenza vaccination when they need it most.

 

True, but if I were to dump this in a court I would argue that its not only misinformation but actually 'dis'information because it then falls upon their people who are doing the statistical analysis to make the flaws in the analysis known. At a minimum any conflict of interest in any report is required to be published and it seems to me this is a huge conflict in interest, on several levels, so huge that some people have turned covid and the cdc et al into a religious crusade!

 

The US public health bureaucracies have destroyed what little credibility they had before Covid. Yes, many (most) will continue to appeal to their authority because it’s easier than thinking for oneself.

Unfortunately the courts here seem to be ok with censure of correct information as well as dissemination of disinformation based on who you are, not on rule of law. It’s the brave new world we live in.

It’s why I suggest doing your own research and making decisions best for you based on that research. Public health is not the priory of US public health entities. Individual health certainly is not either. I’m compelled to say not everything claimed by those opposed to our public health bureaucracies is correct either so care must be taken when consuming information from either “tribe”.

 

Reread my post - it says nothing about predictions. It refers to measuring efficacy by hospitalization and death rates.

 

Who cares? The fact is that the healthier and younger you are the LESS the vax makes sense. Full stop. This is not rocket science, no need to do any regression analysis. That this simple FACT has been downplayed and ridiculed is criminal.

 

Why are you, like Arleigh, replying to me as though I've been talking about predictions, regression analysis, or whatever? I haven't. My point is simply that vaccine efficacy can be determined by it's impact on serious illness - hospitalization and death rates. That, after all, is the ultimate concern. In other words, it's not necessary to know the exact number of people who are asymptomatic, or symptomatic but not tested, etc., in order to evaluate its efficacy. What counts - and what can be known - is actual outcomes.

 

You missed the point. I don't care what the vax efficacy is if I'm in a group with very low risk of severe covid. This is an order of magnitude MORE true for healthy people who have already recovered from covid.
So yeah, lies, damn lies, and statistics.

 

No I didn't miss your point. I explained how you're responding to a point I didn't make, by explaining my actual point. And in a sense, you're illustrating my point because you've clearly managed to determine what you believe your risk is without needing to know exactly how many people are asymptomatic, untested etc. In fact, the numbers we do know - the hospitalization and death rates I mentioned - can be useful to people in this regard by, for example, drilling down to see those rates for particular age groups, supplementing this by personal knowledge about their general health and fitness, and, where applicable, the knowledge that they have been infected in the past, etc. etc. Some people may conclude they're low risk and opt not to be vaccinated. Others may opt to be vaccinated for greater certainty, or because the risk may be low, but lower still if vaccinated.

 

No but doctors did and do ask people who tested positive what symptoms, if any they had/have. Even asking 'how do you feel' tells you the answer.They do that for any illness. And answers get recorded.

 

Forgot to mention weather prediction.

https://thisisstatistics.org/beyond-barometers-how-statisticians-help-to-predict-the-weather/

 

Weather is effectively random (because there are far too many parameters involved and only a very small amount of them can be known at any given time). IOW, weather is a multi randR generator (like throwing a whole bunch of dice at once) and can only be "predicted" to a certain extent and to a certain probability. Hence, you will notice how weather "predictions" (which are described in terms of probability) after a day or two are typically wrong and typically get adjusted as time goes by.

You can't tell me what the weather is going to be at the airport in Madison Wisconsin a couple of weeks from now. You also can't tell me the next time that a tornado is going to affect the airport in Madison Wisconsin.

As I said, weather is effectively a random event and cannot really be predicted much.

 

The key is the last word of your sentence 'much'. Much is not never.

Yes the accuracy of weather predictions are very time dependent i.e. the further forward in time you go the less accurate they become. But predictions a few days ahead (normally 5 or so ) generally are fairly reliable. If such a prediction says there will be rain in 3 days time it might get the amount wrong of rain wrong but it does rain. And its getting better. Even long range forecasting. And that's down to ever more modern supercomputers and the increasing amount of meteorology data that gets fed into them so that the models can be updated and then run with more details more quickly. Basically dividing the entire surface of the planet into ever smaller and smaller cubes of space stacked on top of each other from the surface to the top of mesosphere into which is put data (temperature, wind direction, moisture levels etc ) for each cube.

And while long range forecasts don't tell you whether you need to pack an umbrella on July 15 they are vital for the agricultural sector and there's big money to be made from them. Not just by farmers but by investors in futures.

 

There was a good supply of masks. But if CDC told everyone to get one, then we would have gone through that supply quickly.

This is straightforward, if you know a little about how it works. There was a city in Canada that got hit by an epidemic. They quickly ran out of supplies, and had to reuse masks, needles, protective garments, and more. Back in the 1990s, the medical community tried to get us more ready to deal with an epidemic. They largely failed, but part of the plan was stockpiling all the things that can get used up quickly. Back in the day, hospitals routinely stored supplies against an emergency. But those mostly disappeared a long time ago.

Your comments about the flu are, well, odd. But there should soon be mRNA vaccines for the flu, and they will work better than the traditional ones.

 

You’ve been misled. Companies producing N95 masks in the US were laying off workers by January 2021. There was manufacturing capacity to fill demand and it wasn’t utilized. There were stockpiles of masks that weren’t utilized. The federal government had such a large stockpile they stopped buying US made N95 masks.

There was not only stockpiled supply, there was massive manufacturing capacity to maintain supply that was completely idled

I know more about how it works than anyone on PF and if you read my past posts on the subject that will be clear.

http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?posts/1073265792/

Your argument that we shouldn’t have recommended N95 masks is equivalent to the argument nobody should get vaccinated because there is a shortage of vaccines or that using what we have would lead to a shortage.

What’s odd exactly? I’ve posted facts about lies the CDC tells about influenza and influenza vaccines. Of course none of this is my opinion. It’s all based on peer reviewed studies and meta analysis of peer reviewed studies.

Here are some samples of the nuts and bolts posts on the issue of influenza.

And.

On decreased efficacy of influenza vaccines.

And another of many posts of mine on the subject (based on published research, not my opinion).

http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?posts/1073041030/


Do you have evidence mRNA influenza vaccines will be superior? Did you know the new GSK Covid vaccine based on the recombinant adjuvanted platform of many influenza vaccines is outperforming mRNA Covid vaccines in trials?

 

Such a load of crap!

Nurses and other medical personnel were having to make their own masks because the hospitals were running out. But you skip ahead a year to avoid that fact. By 2021 there no shortage. The problems were primarily in the first half of 2020.

 

I NEVER post crap. Only facts.

Yep. The shortage was before 2021. As I stated clearly in my post there were plenty by January 2021. By 2021 there was a MASSVE oversupply of N95 masks. Yet hospitals refused to buy them and the CDC still recommended AGAINST their use until September 10, 2021! The CDC still forbade retailers from advertising N95 masks through the spring of 2021, pushing manufacturers to the brink of bankruptcy because they could not sell a product they had been encouraged to produce for the American people.

EVERYTHING in my post is factual and I implore you to show EVIDENCE something I’ve posted on the subject isn’t factual. But we know you won’t because you NEVER have facts or evidence to back your unsubstantiated opinions.

 

At first, I thought you were joking.

Pity, that.

Maintaining a supply in an epidemic (or an emergency) has been a concern since before you were born. Hospitals used to keep an emergency supply on hand for when the poop hit the fan.

The CDC was entirely correct to worry about panic buying and hoarding. That did happen..


On top of that, Trump was making an even bigger mess of the situation every week. That added an element of risk to all their plans.

That you tried to make a controversy out of it is shocking. If you are who you say you are, this is really basic stuff, and you should know better.

 

Trump was not president after January 2021. LOL

Maintaining a supply was not a concern. There was a massive OVERSUPPLY. This is a fact.

What is shocking is public health entities telling Americans not to use a very effective mitigation tool that was in oversupply and at reasonable prices. What is shocking is that hospitals were telling their employees they didn’t have N95 masks for them when mask manufacturers were begging hospitals to buy their N95 masks that were NIOSH certified by the CDC. At the same time mask manufacturers were going bankrupt, laying off workers, and had hundreds of millions of masks gathering dust on warehouse shelves, the CDC was telling YOU there was a shortage. This was a lie.

As this was going on, European public health entities were buying the abundant N95s on the world market and giving them to citizens. As the CDC was recommending AGAINST N95 masks that were in massive oversupply, European public health entities were mandating N95 and equivalent quality masks.

The CDC killed a lot of people who didn’t have to die.

All this is well documented. It’s not my opinion.

 

Good grief.

At least you're consistent.

 

I consistently post facts and conclusions of peer reviewed studies.

Anything I post not based on peer reviewed published research is backed by multiple sources like the New York Times and Becker Health which I have provided links to and pull quotes from.

You consistently post unsubstantiated opinions with NO links to peer reviewed studies or multiple sources

Yes, I’m glad you noticed what I post is consistent in that it can NEVER be refuted with data or research. All you guys have is an endless stream of fallacious arguments.

 

You're Procrustean. It all comes out the same..

The CDC made mistakes, Fauci has admitted that many times. But your characterisation is bootless.

Trump's mistakes killed hundreds of thousands, and it mostly had to do with him pursuing his interests. The CDC's mistakes caused the death of, at most, a few percent of how many Trump killed.

Mistakes are inevitable in a fast moving pandemic, which is something else you should know. It is possible to avoid most of them, but that requires a level of preparation like what South Korea does. That's politics.

And, last point, in August of 2021 they reversed the guidance when Omicron showed up.

 

Quote the contrary. The CDC was Procrustean. They are the ones who wanted citizens to all uniformly desist from wearing the most effective masks. I’ve advocated for personal choice of what protection an individual wants since the beginning.

It all comes out the same? You believe the results would be the same if US citizens had worn N95 masks instead of homemade cloth masks? Do you have any evidence for this claim? Any evidence cloth masks are as effective as N95 masks?

This was not a mistake. The CDC was inspecting these masks and their manufacturer’s facilities and giving them NIOSH certifications. They knew an oversupply existed yet withheld them from citizens. European countries were simultaneously giving N95s to their citizens and mandating their use!

Can you quote where I’ve said Trump has anything to do with my posts on N95 masks of influenza? I’m uninterested in strawman arguments. Let’s say Trump killed people. You are saying that justifies the CDC killing people. Sorry, not in my world. Both are responsible for their actions. The CDC recommendation against high quality masks that were in oversupply was not Trump’s idea.

South Korea had a major shortage of N95 equivalent quality masks just like we did in 2020. Instead of recommending against all masks and then N95 equivalents, they helped their citizens acquire masks.

This was not a “mistake”.

No. As usual you are incorrect. They stopped recommending against N95 masks based on “shortages” on September 10, 2020.

Aren’t you glad they reversed it for Omicron? Who wanted protected from the much more lethal variants like Delta? LOL

So for around 10 months the CDC recommended AGAINST one of the most effective Covid mitigations we had. And they did so based on the LIE there was a shortage.

The first US Omicron cases were confirmed in December. The first confirmed reported case was in South Africa in November LOL.

 

This is why appeal to authority fallacy is so dangerous. The CDC can literally tell you any lie and you will believe it because you have NO knowledge of the subject matter. Everything you post about Covid can be easily demonstrated to be false. You claim the CDC changed a policy over a variant that hadn’t yet been identified.

You crave lies and reject documented truths I’ve presented. I support your right to do so, but as someone who cares about your health I suggest thinking more critically about these issues because appealing to the authority of known liars and incompetents can get you very sick or dead.