Rove: GOP Faces Uphill Battle to Deny Obama Re-election

Veteran GOP political strategist Karl Rove says Mitt Romney is facing very tough electoral math in his presidential bid -- so dire that President Obama would likely win re-election if voters were going to the polls this week.

The math is simple and indisputable, says Rove, though he warns that the situtation is highly fluid.

The next president needs 270 Electoral College votes to win.

There are currently 18 states (220 electoral votes) where Obama has a solid lead and 15 states (93 votes) that are solidly in Romney's column.

There are six states -- crucial battleground states -- with a combined 82 electoral vtes that are “toss-(*)-ups” (IA, FL, MO, NC, SC, VA).

Five more states -- MI, NH, NV, OH, PA -- with a combined 64 EC votes are "leaning" toward Obama.

Six other states -- AZ, GA, KY, SD, TN, TX -- with a combined 79 EC votes “lean” Romney.

Simply put, that means there are 17 states for a total of 225 Electoral College votes up for grabs.

So if the election were held today, 284 electoral votes are safely Obama's, according to Rove. Romney has 157 safe or leaning votes.

"These projections will change as more polls are conducted in the coming weeks," Rove warns. The situation is extremely fluid.

Rove was considered one of the best prognosticators during the 2008 election when he called 48 states correctly, only getting Indiana and North Carolina wrong.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Rove-prediction-Obama-election/2012/04/26/id/437244

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Now that it's getting down to it, it appears that Mitt Romney, the perpetual front runner and assumed nominee of the GOP, may not be as electable as has been touted all along. Gee, if only the GOP had a Conservative candidate that had crossover appeal to Independents and Democrats.... Crazy, I know. The only other guy left is loony old Ron Paul. He does well with Indys, though and had some Dems change party registration to vote for him. Might be just the ticket. Too bad the GOP doesn't like what may be their best shot at winning in November. Maybe they're happy with losing by over 100 electoral votes in November.

 

I think eventually it'll all slide mostly over to Obama's side since while Romney is the Republican's only viable candidate; the mainstream media will open him up like a can of peas over the summer and further reduce his credibility.

 

First Rove is a Washington establishment insider that is not as good as he thinks he is. I see him as having no credibility.

Second the democrats better realize Romney will do to Obama what he did to Gingrich and Santorum. The negative ad assault will be massive and Obama has way to much to defend.

 

A projected loss by over 120 electoral votes isn't my idea of viable. Not to mention what this could mean for Congressional races.

 

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Rove is a GOP establishment insider and Fox contributor. He is absolutely pro-GOP, so this isn't bias on his part. Plus, as the article states, he correctly called 48 out 50 states last election.

Seems pretty credible to me. I bet the Party leaders are taking notice.

 

In my book he is an idiot I hope he breaks that stupid chalk board. He is another that wants the GOP to move left

 

I'm no fan of his, but people do listen to what he says. And calling 48 out of 50 ain't bad.

It might be time for the GOP to re-think the Romney coronation and take a serious look at the one guy that can bring in Independents and Democrats, the guy the other candidates were dismissive of while co-opting his views, the guy that the GOP and the MSM has called unelectable, the one guy that will actually cut the deficit and reduce the debt.

It might be time for RON PAUL!!

 

How many tea part victories did he call correctly in 2010 since he hates the tea party?

 

Larry Sabato in my most well regarded analyst, and Obama is not a lock by his account.

 

Also don't forget that Obama will not have a money advantage this time due to super-pacs. He won't be able to buy the election like he did with McCain.

 

He is quite right. Here's a state by state analysis:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Obama is ahead of or tied with Romney in all of the latest polls. Even Rasmussen's gone from a win for Romney to a virtual tie:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

 

I haven't kept up with Obama's money, but seem to remember him having raised over $100 million compared to Romney's $10 million. There are super pacs for both parties. Plus, there are many campaign advantages for an incumbent.

Whether it's Romney or, by some chance Ron Paul vs Obama, Obama will have the money advantage.

 

The situation is highly fluid as he says and as such the math is immaterial at this point. Looking at this election from either camps point of view it appears to be an uphill battle. I suspect we will have record breaking campaign spending.

 

This is one time I would have to agree with Rove. Romney has made it very easy for Obama to go after him on many fronts. Romney went so far right that he will not be able to recover. Furthermore, the Republicans in congress are not really excited about him as well. Romeny will have to move further than ever expected to the left just on womans and social issues alone, then he will have to defend his previous statements from the primary which will be hard to do. I think the biggest challenge is going to be on healthcare where he said his plan should be a national model. The real stinging thing is he wants to go back to what put us in this mess in the first place. I have not seen any of his plans for how to reduce spending and raise tax to make up the difference, we have all seen how austerity measure have failed overseas which clearly is all the Ryan budget that he thinks is "marvelous" has to offer. The Republicans could have done so much better, yet they ran out the only candidate with any common sence Huntsman.

 

With 6 months to go. The predictions will change several times before the election

 

You seem to forget all the Obama failed policies and scandals like fast and furious and solyndra

 

I think you missed the fact that Obama and his goons insulted millions of women with that slap at Anne Romney for being a "stay-at-home" Mom who raised 5 children.....while dealing with her own cancer and M.S., BTW. A remarkable woman by any standards. So.....you think those Moms won't be out in full-force come November? Of course they will.

And don't worry about Republicans. We will NOT be sitting home this time. We know that leaving Obama in there would be the downfall of our country. And we must take our country back....and exactly what we plan to do.

"There are no Blue States, there are no Red States," my patootie. What a liar! He's no longer fooling anyone!! MOST divisive president in my lifte time, for sure. It's time for him to go!

 

That's not what Dick Morris says....and he's a better predictor of political races than Rove is.
Rove is trying to put a little "scare" in the Republicans to make sure they all get out to vote.

I come across VERY FEW people who plan to vote for Obama and who support him. And the few I do....they cannot give one example of anything he's actually done that has been good or positive for the country. Hard to believe they'll be very motivated if they cannot come up with even one example.
Most people I come across.....and I'm talking about not only friends, but people who check me out at the grocery store, and who work in the stores I frequent, can't stand him.

 

Give me a break! Obama has been attacked non-stop for the last 4 years. . .and the GOP has thrown everything to try to make one thing stick. . .and they have failed.

I don't think there is much left that the GOP can try. . .if there was, they would already have tried it!

 

I haven't figured the total but I disagree with him on Texas and Florida. He has Texas "leaning" Romney when McCain took Texas by 11%. No way Texas is not solid RED. And he has Florida in the "tossup" column though Rubio and Crist won 79% of the vote for Senator in 2010, leaving only 20% for the democrat. There are a few states like Ohio and Virginia that could give it to pbama, but Texas and Florida will not.

 

Obama is dirty and has lots of baggage from the last 4 years.

 

No, dear. What you consider as "dirty" is just his skin color. . .which some narrow minded, prejudice people consider unworthy of adorning the White House.

Get used to it. The Right has tried for 4 years to make "dirt" stick to the President. . .and NOTHING has!

I will vote for him. . .first time in my life, and I am exceedingly happy to have finally gotten my citizenship to do so!

 

How is this post not racist?

 

Plenty has stuck and its actually the democrats who let it slide. Now that I think about it, hes actually losing many democrats also for his lies.

How's that Gitmo closure going?

How's that unemployment under 8% going?

 

McCain didn't (*)(*)(*)(*) off Mexican immigrants like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised in the next 12 years to see Texas turn blue as long as the right keeps it's nasty anti-immigration policies in place. That population in Texas will only get bigger.