Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

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This is important but to do this Ukraine needs modern tanks and missiles. Jet fighter bombers would be really great but that in not going to happen. The lighter armor, Bradleys, APVs, anti missiles systems will help. The sad thing for Ukraine is that Germany always seems to vacillate, procrastinate, make excuses, and delay and deny vital s
upport. I am aware that Germany has provided a varied and long list of materials to Ukraine. Kudos to Germany that they started “ supporting “ Ukraine with the open mic night joke ( at least I hope it was a joke) of those 5,000 helmets last year and recently promised Marders. I am sure that in the minds of German officials they can as they have been doing all justify the reasons for vacillations, delays, and denials of aid as cultural, internal political conflicts, rules and laws as causes. OK so Germany has reasons not to transfer Leopard tanks directly from Germany but blocking other EU countries from doing so based on licensing “rules” and “policies at this point is indeed unconscionable.
I know that I have been wrongfully criticized for questioning Germany’s actions or inactions so I will remind our German allies of the Berlin airlift. Neither the US, the U.K. and other western allies hesitated in flying supplies to Berlin after the Soviets blocked Berlin even though there were ‘niunkas’ in the US and the UK who were shaking in their boots that Stalin will be upset. We just fought a hard war with Germany yet allied pilots and crews lost their lives in crashes delivering food, fuel and vital supplies to Berlin. The allied crews did not forget the children of Berlin. They dropped candy and chocolates for the kids even tough that Soviet monster Stalin was pizzed off about us allies giving him the middle finger. The US, UK, and other allies did the right thing so this is Germany’s time to do the right thing before it is too late. BTW my cousins who are fighting the Russians in Ukraine say thanks for those 5,000 helmets they are so cool but a thanks for the tanks would be much better.

Again my cousins in Ukraine are grateful for all materials Germany ( and others) have provided but armor at this point has reached a crucial point for Ukraine’s very existence.

 

Institute for the Study of War
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023
Jan 19, 2023 - Press ISW



Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin discussed unspecified bilateral military cooperation, the implementation of unspecified strategic deterrence measures, and “progress in preparing” the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV) in a January 19 phone call. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk and discussed an unspecified Russo-Belarusian “shared vision” for Russia’s war in Ukraine on January 19. Lavrov and Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergey Aleinik discussed how Russia and Belarus can defeat an ongoing Western hybrid war against the states and signed an unspecified memorandum of cooperation on “ensuring biological security.” This memorandum could be a leading indicator of the intensification of an existing Russian information operation falsely accusing Ukraine of developing chemical and biochemical weapons in alleged US-funded biolabs in Ukraine that was part of the Kremlin‘s pretext for the February 2022 invasion.

Key Takeaways

• Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – an activity that could set conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks.
• A new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus, although an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more plausible.
• Ultranationalist Russian milbloggers continue to criticize the idea of Russian forces attacking Ukraine from Belarus.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attacked the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), underscoring the infeasibility of the Kremlin supporting a third Minsk-type agreement.
• Lukashenko continues to balance against the Kremlin by framing Belarus as a sovereign state within the Russian-dominated Union State.
• The Kremlin continues to falsely promote a narrative that the war will escalate if Ukraine receives weapons with the capability to strike Russian forces in occupied Crimea.
• An extremist Kremlin ally reintroduced nuclear escalation rhetoric aimed at scaring Western policymakers away from providing additional military aid to Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly siding with the enemies of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, likely in an ongoing effort to reduce Prigozhin’s influence in Russia.
• Prigozhin’s continued use of the Wagner Group’s claimed tactical success to elevate his position is likely deepening a conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for influence in the Russian information space.
• Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov may have officially declared that the Wagner Group does not belong in the structure of the Russian Armed Forces and that the Russian military does not collaborate with Wagner despite ample evidence to the contrary.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Svatove, and Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Kreminna.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Klishchiivka amidst ongoing Russian offensive operations around Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted localized offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian officials are reportedly continuing to prepare for a second wave of mobilization.
• Ukrainian partisans may have conducted an IED attack in Zaporizhia Oblast. . . . .

The Russian Armed Forces continue to struggle with desertion and low morale among servicemembers. The BBC’s Russian service shared a special report on January 19 that Russian courts have received over 900 criminal cases under the Russian Criminal Code – most being under the article on “unauthorized abandonment of a unit” since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[75] Meduza previously reported that the Russian government made amendments to the Criminal Code on September 24 that increased punishments for ”crimes against military service“ such as desertion, insubordination, and disobedience just five days after Putin declared mobilization.[76] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) shared intercepted audio on January 18 of a demoralized Russian servicemember complaining about the high death rates in his unit and their dwindling supply of military equipment.[77] . . . .

 

US Announces New Ukraine Military Aid Package. The US announced Thursday that it is sending a new $2.5 billion weapons package to Ukraine. The package includes 90 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers, marking the first time the US is sending the system to Kyiv. The package also includes 59 Bradley Infantry Fighting vehicles, eight Avenger short-range air defense systems, more NASAMS and HIMARS munitions, and other military equipment. The new aid will significantly boost Ukraine’s armored capability, though it does not include Abrams battle tanks which Ukraine has been requesting. Bloomberg CNN The Hill

 

Defense Leaders in Germany for Discussions on Ukraine Support Amid Tensions over Tanks. A gathering of defense chiefs from the Ukraine Contact Group met at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed the group where he again made a call for more arms to Ukraine, saying that ‘terror does not allow for discussion’. US Secretary of Defense Llyod Austin told the group that the conflict was at a crucial point and said that the Russian military was attempting to re-equip itself and regroup. Austin also says the US will support Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’. The meeting comes amid a growing public debate surrounding whether or not Berlin will authorize the delivery of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. Numerous countries say they are ready to ship the tanks, but require permission from Berlin to do so. Germany’s new defense Chief Boris Pistorius, speaking to reporters hours after being officially sworn in, says he expects a decision from Berlin soon, but added he does not know what the decision will be. Associated Press NY Times BBC Wall Street Journal CNN

 

Ukraine Cyber Chief Visits UK Signals Agency. Victor Zhora, the deputy chief of Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection, visited the UK’s National Cyber Security Center to discuss UK-Ukraine cyber collaboration. During his visit, Zhora said the number of cyberattacks against Ukraine have tripled over the last year, adding that Russian hacking with destructive wiper malware is often coordinated with kinetic attacks like missile strikes. UK security minister Tom Tugendhat noted during Zhora’s visit that cyber warfare has allowed Russia to expand its attacks on Ukrainian civilians, namely through targeting of critical infrastructure. The Guardian

 

CIA Director Meets Zelenskiy in Kyiv. A US official told The Washington Post that CIA Director William Burns recently traveled to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his top intelligence officials. The official said Burns briefed the Ukrainian side about expectations for Russia’s next steps in its invasion. He also warned that US military aid may become more difficult to deliver, possibly referring to reported Ukrainian concerns of waning support in the newly Republican-majority House of Representatives to continue military aid for Ukraine. Sources say that despite this warning, the meeting showed Zelenskiy and his aides that the US remains a strong supporter of Ukraine. CBS Washington Post

 

Trying to substitute bluster for battlefield success.
Putin Ally Warns of Nuclear War if Russia Defeated in Ukraine. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday warned that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war. He added that NATO and other defense ministers meeting in Germany should be wary of the risks associated with their support of Ukraine. While the nuclear rhetoric is not new, Medvedev did make a rare, explicit admission that Moscow could potentially lose in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Medvedev’s remarks do not signal that Moscow is escalating the conflict, adding that his comments follow Russian nuclear doctrine which allows for the use of nuclear weapons when the Russian state is threatened. Reuters

 

EU’s Michel Visits Kyiv. European Council President Charles Michel met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday. During his trip, Michel called for continued European aid, including tanks, and addressed the Ukrainian parliament, where he applauded Kyiv’s resilience against Russia. He also said in his speech that “Ukraine is the EU and the EU is Ukraine,” adding that he hopes a Ukrainian holds his position in the future. Officials say negotiations on Ukraine’s membership into the EU will begin this year, though Kyiv still needs to improve its rule of law before joining the bloc. France 24 Politico Reuters

 

So the German Government's prevarication continues presumably until Putin tips Scholz the nod....is Germany politics now so far up Putin's arse that they're that scared about commitment to a European ally in an existential fight!!??

Are Scholz and Pistorius so worried about Russia or are they just wrapped up in their own craven cowardice!!?? I'm guessing that Scholz's phone and email inbox are full of furious communications from KMW and Rheinmetall at the moment making clear how much damage this is doing to not only their reputation but also ongoing and future sales campaigns! They have already watched Poland order hundreds of Abrams and K2 Black Panther with other EU nations enthusiastically eyeing those types themselves and Norway close to announcing what replaces their current Leo2 who are already a Hanwha customer and possibly considering the attractive synergies logistics wise of the massive Polish order for K2s.

I'm guessing this political blockage will shift soon but it will be interesting to see how Scholz and Pistorius save face on this...absolutely astounding.....my assumption is that Poland and perhaps even Finland will give Germany the middle finger and go ahead and give their tanks.

 

The German government's conduct over this is displaying some of the worst characteristics of that great country verging on cowardice. I know that not every German agrees with it!

 

My guess is that the Germans are using the question to leverage the US.

 

Leverage....what does that mean? Or is that the myth that is being spun to cover prevarication. This situation has been discussed for months so what "leverage" is the Germany Government thinking it will obtain and does that "leverage" extend to the license agreements that I am sure KMW are beating Pistorius and Scholz around the head with at this moment! The Germans simply have to stopping pissing around and get off the fence as they are making themselves look stupid.

 

If the Germans are going to extend themselves by providing tanks then they want the Americans to provide tanks right alongside them. If the Americans won't then Germans have cover to also decline.

 

Besides fighting to stay alive Ukraine needs land ownership reform, business laws in place, human rights, and religious rights. Ukraine needs to use more skillful tactics when rooting out Russian and pro Russian spies and terrorists hidden in the the pro Russia Orthodox “church”.

 

Some members of the Polish Ramstein delegation dropped a hint that, in the end, there will be Leopard tanks being giving to Ukraine and the German government will give its ok. Sure, this has been debated for many weeks now, but here’s a thought.
Why publicly declare now that Leopards will be entering Ukrainian service in XY weeks and give the Russians enough time to prepare? Ukrainian crews would have to be trained and the Russian high command would definitely know they’d have XY weeks to prepare their front lines and also where Ukraine would use those tanks most likely. Russia is definetly trying to gain as much info as they can on this.
Wouldn’t it make much more sense to keep Russia in the dark? Just communicate that the debate regarding MBTs is still going on and no decision has been made yet, but secretly start getting the Leos combat ready and start training Ukrainian crews, so when the OK comes, those crews can start using the Leos right away without giving Russia time to prepare.

After all, Ukraine has been using German Gepard anti-air tanks very effectively and nobody in the media talked about how their crews learned to use this rather complicated system. All of a sudden the Gepards started showing up in Ukraine and crews knew how to use them.

 

Maybe some of us are being harsh alluding to German cowardliness. Could be that they are in their own minds at least taking care of Germany first. I have relatives who are placing their lives on the line fighting Russians just as their grandfathers did fighting German NAZIS and SOVIET Russians during WWII. And their Great Grandfathers ( as did mine) fighting against Bolsheviks after WWI.

 

I hope that you are right that the country that I was born in will do what you say for the country where my parents were born.

 

...or they could just be choked up with indecision....this isn't some Aristotelian confluence of events that has appeared out of the blue!! It's not something that hasn't been discussed for months and months and months and just been presented out of the mist to the German Government...!!! Seriously....what the fu*k are they thinking!!! The time for convoluted domestic crap is past.

....they are already preparing.....they have been preparing.....that's an absurd suggestion and I'm assuming its some kind of face saving thought process to disguise a feeling of frustration? You know my feelings towards Germany so I hope you don't think this is something taken lightly.

Thanks but no...this is not an issue of "leverage" whatever that means

 

We disagree. By demurring, the Germans compel from the US a decision (either way) that the US did not want to address.

 

we do....because I'm reasonably certain the Americans don't want to send Abrams tanks which they know are not wanted by the Ukrainians and will create more problems for the Ukrainians if they are given them than they solve. Ergo the banalities of the Germans hanging caveats onto an absurd scenario is beyond fantasy.

IF this continues its potentially the death of the German arms industry....who's going to buy kit from them if they can caveat what the end user wants to do with it!!
IF they continue down this path why would you want Germany at the forefront of Europe if they are only going to show cowardice in the face of threat!!

 

Couldn't agree more....



https://www.dw.com/en/there-is-a-lo...h-kiesewetter-cdu-speaks-to-dw/video-64473928

Scholtz: "Germany won't go it alone on sending tanks."
Britain: "Ok, we'll send Challenger 2 tanks."
France: "And we'll send AMX 10-RC tanks."
Poland & Finland: "We will send Leopard 2 tanks as soon as you give us the green light."
Scholtz: "Ummm...errrr....ooohhh.....errmmm"

wanker

 

Questions for Germans to answer. I think they'd rather keep their skirts clean than fight effectively.

 

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Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 20, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov continues to frame Chechen fighters’ involvement in the war in Ukraine on distinctly religious grounds, thereby building out his reputation and the reputation of his power base.
• The Wagner Group appears to be struggling to present itself as an effective parallel military structure, thus increasingly proving to be a parasitic paramilitary entity.
• US intelligence confirmed the rivalry between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner Group on which ISW has long reported.
• Prigozhin’s quest for legal recognition of the Wagner Group may also trigger further factionalization within the Russian government.
• The Kremlin continues to engage in demonstrative public actions aimed at setting informational conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine.
• Russian Telegram sources claimed that Putin dismissed Russian Commander of the Airborne Forces Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, but these reports remain unconfirmed.
• The Kremlin continues to promote information operations threatening escalation over Western military assistance to Ukraine in order to weaken Western support.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued offensive operations near Svatove and Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations across the Donetsk Oblast front line. Russian sources continued to falsely claim that Russian forces are close to encircling Bakhmut.
• Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are still likely preparing for a defensive operation in the long term despite recent claims of territorial gains.
• Russian officials and sources continue to indicate that mobilization measures are ongoing despite numerous claims that mobilization has officially concluded.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities continue deporting Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Russia. . . . .

The Kremlin is continuing its efforts to reinvigorate its defense industrial base (DIB) under unrealistic timelines, while also attempting to bypass Western-imposed sanctions. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on January 18 called on Russian officials to send all missing material and technical means that Russian Armed Forces needed in 2022 to the frontlines by no later than February 2023.[77] Mishutin added that government officials need to promptly take all relevant management decisions to supply Russian troops, mirroring Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent orders to improve the Russian DIB within a month to supply Russian forces in both the near and the long term.[78] The Kremlin also continues to find loopholes to avoid sanctions to sustain Russia‘s DIB by using Russian state nuclear power company, Rosatom, to procure raw materials for sanctioned enterprises. Ukrainian intelligence shared a letter reportedly from Rosatom dated October 2022 with The Washington Post indicating that the company—which presents itself as a "civilian entity"—had been working to supply Russia’s military industry with components, technology, and raw materials for missile fuel.[79] The Washington Post reported that Rosatom managed to avoid sanctions given its widespread involvement in nuclear power plants globally and control over supplies. . . .