Should Canada declare war?

Discussion in 'Opinion POLLS' started by Canell, Jan 10, 2020.

?

Shoud Canada declare war on Iran?

  1. Yes!

    2 vote(s)
    10.5%
  2. No, but NATO should

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. No, Ukraine should

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. War, are you serious? For a bunch of people?

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Canadians declaring war, what? Hahaha!

    9 vote(s)
    47.4%
  6. No, war is too serious. Just let it be.

    4 vote(s)
    21.1%
  7. Other

    4 vote(s)
    21.1%
  8. Can't make up my mind

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2017
    Messages:
    18,719
    Likes Received:
    1,616
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Well none of this would be necessary if all aircraft were banned from the airspace in a certain safe vicinity above the launch site during launch operations. I'm only assuming that this was the case, although if this was indeed the case, it wouldn't taken a special kind of incompetence for the plane strike, including the plane being in the airspace with no authority. I guess we won't know how it happened until the investigation reveals it. I'm also confused because these would've been surface to surface missiles so I would expect them to be designed to only track towards ground targets.

    Well that wouldn't apply in this case would it
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  2. Monash

    Monash Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    404
    Likes Received:
    247
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
    OK, to start with what follows are my observations as a strict amateur on such matters. So just to be clear if there is anyone on this forum with expertise on this subject their opinion is the one that counts.

    Firstly, given the scenario we are looking at the Iranians couldn't ground every commercial flight in the country without telegraphing in advance to the Western Allies that they were about to launch an attack. This is (I think) a given even though they planned from the start to alert the Iraqi authorities (and the US) 10 minutes on advance to avoid actually killing any Americans.

    Think of it from their position. You have told the World that you are going to launch a military strike against the US in retaliation for the killing of (whats-his name). You absolutely have to do this because in the great game of politics (both domestic and international) you appear powerless if you don't.

    You also know the US is anticipating such action because - if for no other reason because you've told the world you will do so. If, on short notice you ground every commercial airline in the country 30 minutes or so before your scheduled attack you are not only 'telegraphing' the impending strike you are also telling the US that your strike is potentially so massive that you have cleared the airspace above Iran because it is about to become a battle zone.

    Think about it. If you were in charge of US Military deployments in the Middle East and with no warning commercial air traffic over Iran suddenly goes 'dark". What are you going to think? The whole point of this exercise from the Iranians point of view was to challenge the US government without actually doing any damage.

    Secondly and most importantly the missiles that shot down the airliner were not the same type of weapon as was used against the airbases in Iraq. The former were, as you noted surface to surface weapons. The missiles that downed the airliner were Russian made anti-aircraft weapons i.e. part of the various air defense systems (radar and CCC vehicles etc) that Iran purchased from Russia a few years ago. Obviously BTW the Russians still have some training to do.

    True but the Iranian Commander in charge of the missile unit in question wouldn't have know this would he? The Iranians would have put their entire military on alert given they were the ones launching the missile attack and couldn't in turn guarantee how the US military (& Trump) might react.

    And that also means Operational commanders in the field would in turn have known that Iranian Government had chosen to make a 'symbolic' strike against the US would it? They could only have assumed the US was going to retaliate in force and the Iranian Government would have been negligent (from their perspective) if they didn't put their the armed forces on alert in anticipation of major retaliation.

    In short this whole episode is probably going to go down in the history books as a classic example of what happens when two military powers at loggerheads decide to use a 'show of force' to get their message across.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
    chris155au likes this.
  3. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    8,015
    Likes Received:
    6,842
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    They dont have the sack, they will only talk.
     
  4. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2016
    Messages:
    12,765
    Likes Received:
    9,544
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You literally know nothing of which you speak. The record showed that that "civilian" plane was beaconing with a military transponder. I know you didn't know that or you purposefully left this part out. It begs why you're spreading this kind of misinformation especially on this kind of board...
     
    Ddyad likes this.
  5. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Messages:
    34,148
    Likes Received:
    12,669
    Trophy Points:
    113
    IMO, they left the airport open so they could shoot down an airliner and intended to blame the shoot down on the anticipated US air attack.

    No one believed that it was possible to launch that many ballistic missiles into a US military base without killing Americans and generating immediate retaliation.
    Divine intervention is seldom anticipated.
     
    drluggit likes this.
  6. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Messages:
    34,148
    Likes Received:
    12,669
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So, in 1998 Iran sacrificed a civilian airliner to advance its war propaganda. IOW, this is not the first time Iran has used human sacrifice as a tool of war.
     
  7. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2016
    Messages:
    24,227
    Likes Received:
    12,879
    Trophy Points:
    113
    NO.

    From the OP Title (which left out "Iran"), I thought this thread might be about Meghan and Harry.

    But, NO reason for Canada to declare war v Iran.
     
  8. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Messages:
    23,773
    Likes Received:
    6,614
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Jesus wept, with all due respect that's about the silliest conspiracy theory I've ever heard. I suppose the pilot went ahead and flew even though other planes were being grounded out of fanatical devotion to the Mulllahs machinations, which he knew of through mental telepathy, right?

    Had I been that pitot I would still be in the airport bar. **** reservations, if I can be fired for making passengers late under those circumstances I didn't want to be working for you anyway.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  9. Monash

    Monash Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    404
    Likes Received:
    247
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
    If so my apologies.But I require your source because I have read up on the incident and nothing I have seen indicates the the plane was issuing a military transponder signal.

    In any event my point was not that the US sailors involved were 'moron's but rather that the Iranian' missile crew who shot down this civilian aircraft weren't 'morons' either. Instead the cause of both incidents were likely the same - fog of war. The US naval vessel involved was engaged with hostile Iranian patrol vessels at the time of that incident and the Iranians had just launched their missile attack and were expecting some form of immanent retaliation from the US. So it comes down to much data, to little time to make the decision and in case of the Iranians poorer training. i.e. a mistake.
     
  10. Monash

    Monash Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    404
    Likes Received:
    247
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
    If news reports over here are to be believed the Iranians alerted the Iraqi government some minutes before launch and identified the target airbases in advance with the explicit intention of giving personnel time to get to shelter- thereby minimizing US casualties. Of course they couldn't know in advance just how successful their warning was going to be. So they prob expect at least some US casualties and retaliation, hence the itchy trigger fingers in their air defense command.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
    Ddyad likes this.
  11. Moriah

    Moriah Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2013
    Messages:
    4,481
    Likes Received:
    767
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Obama isn't the President anymore. Let's talk about the current occupant of the White House. :)
     
  12. Moriah

    Moriah Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2013
    Messages:
    4,481
    Likes Received:
    767
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    No, it makes a lot of sense actually.:)
     
  13. Moriah

    Moriah Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2013
    Messages:
    4,481
    Likes Received:
    767
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Or maybe your bicycle tires were old/worn out and ready to go flat anyway.
     
  14. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Messages:
    34,148
    Likes Received:
    12,669
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Get woke. No planes were grounded.
     
  15. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Messages:
    34,148
    Likes Received:
    12,669
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yes, Iran's remaining leaders clearly expected casualties and a US counter strike.
    It is astonishing that there were no casualties from the ballistic missile strikes on our base.
     
  16. Monash

    Monash Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    404
    Likes Received:
    247
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
    Ddyad, still waiting for the source of the original allegation re; the jet involved using military transponder signal. Could be true but then again it contradicts previous reading. So for the time being I go with the honest mistake theory simply because the Iranians couldn't be sure the US would should down any one particular plane during the period concerned. Most of their flights that day heading in the same general direction would have had to be rigged that way for certainty. But also because **** happens.

    The Iranians have certainly demonstrated their capacity for duplicity and fake flag operations in the past but using their own people that way carries a hell of a lot of potential risk. Local citizens are pissed of as it stands about the current shoot down which appears to have been an accident. Getting caught setting up a plane load of their own people for mass murder? Even at the height of the revolution IMO waaay to risky. Most of the population back then were ready to believe the US was the devil anyway - even if the 'gloss' has since fallen off the revolution and its on its last legs now.
     
    Ddyad likes this.
  17. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2017
    Messages:
    18,719
    Likes Received:
    1,616
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    They didn't all have to be grounded. Planes could have been diverted to another airport or placed into a holding pattern.

    Of course. What's your point?

    And what would be the problem with this?

    That possibly Iran is going to launch just a single missile. What would you say?

    How so? How do the Russians relate to this, other than that it's a Russian manufactured missile system?

    Well why would they deliberately target what they see as a civilian aircraft? (Which, as you say could be possible, is actually a military aircraft SPOOFING a civilian transponder signal.)
     
  18. Monash

    Monash Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    404
    Likes Received:
    247
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
    The domestic flights possibly, the international ones? As for a holding pattern, how long are they supposed to maintain it? One hour, two, twelve? Notwithstanding that in it tells the US something is up, do you think the US military won't notice if every civilian aircraft in Iran suddenly goes into 'hold' mode? It would send the same signal that grounding them would.

    My point was they have to launch a retaliatory strike to maintain 'prestige' but they can't make it one that kills many Americans because they don't want to get reamed in response. Shutting down every civilian aircraft n the country tells your opponent that you are potentially planning something big - even if, as in this case you are not.

    See the above. Iran wanted a 'show' for both domestic and international purposes, what they didn't want is a war. Because they would get hammered. So they have a dilemma. They most certainly don't want the US to overreact while at the same time they don't want to tip them off to early that an attack is coming. Sucks to be the Iranians doesn't it. They are in bind of their own making.

    Again a dilemma. One missile can be intercepted and even if not will do limited damage (depending on size) So they chose lots of smaller missiles and multiple targets. It looks impressive to domestic audiences without actually doing that much damage. They could have launched larger and didn't.

    You don't just buy complex military equipment like anti-air defense systems and read the instructions on the box. Doesn't matter who provides the system or what the weapon is the contract includes comprehensive operational and support training. Anyone in your own Defense Forces you may know can confirm this.

    My point was that it wasn't deliberate. They had a sudden new contact approaching restricted airspace. They are on high alert because they are expecting a US counter-attack (one which was never coming BTW). They have access to civilian flight schedules but the timing is out. Their leaders have told them to be ready for a maximum US response and troops all along the chain of Command with the possible exception of those at the top are inexperienced, using systems they have never operated in war time before. Plus as I noted previously they know civilian transponders can be spoofed. Result - massive ****-up.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2020
  19. Canell

    Canell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2011
    Messages:
    3,400
    Likes Received:
    1,412
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I meant "in case the investigation reveals Iran shot the plane". Which it did.
    Sorry, not a native English speaker, I get confused fro time to time. ;)
     
    chris155au likes this.
  20. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    8,015
    Likes Received:
    6,842
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    No, it was Trump, I'm most certain! The Orange Bastard!
     
    Canell likes this.
  21. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2017
    Messages:
    18,719
    Likes Received:
    1,616
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Oh. I know what you mean now.
     
  22. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2017
    Messages:
    18,719
    Likes Received:
    1,616
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Is anyone questioning why they went ahead with the strike after they announced their intention?

    Yeah, but how would a war have resulted from clearing airspace?

    Are you saying that the downing of the plane means that the Russian's didn't supply the proper training?

    Oh I see what you mean now. Knowing that it's possible that it could be a military aircraft pretending to be a civilian one, they could've shot to take it out given this possibility even if they knew that it would be a gamble.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2020
  23. Monash

    Monash Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    404
    Likes Received:
    247
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2020
  24. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2017
    Messages:
    18,719
    Likes Received:
    1,616
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Even with surface to surface missiles, there's still a risk to planes. I guess that the only way for contact would be if the missile and plane happened to be on the exact same course, unless the missiles are designed to avoid air targets and deviate course. And possibly a plane's Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) would be sufficient.

    Again, how would a war have resulted from this?

    When you said, "the Russians still have some training to do", I took that to mean that the Russian's are to blame for Iran's lack of skills.

    What Iranian airliner?
     
  25. Monash

    Monash Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    404
    Likes Received:
    247
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
    The Iranians targeted the plane in question by mistake. The 2 missiles were launched (and hit) the intended target. The decision to shoot in the first place was what went wrong.



    You are 'clearing the board' for want of a better term. Imagine you are the US General monitoring Iranian airspace and it goes 'dark' as every civilian flight over the country stops. What are you gong to think?



    Possibly (again- not an expert.) But even if you are well trained if you don't practice whatever training you received, no matter how good becomes mute. Doesn't matter how good your 'driver ed' instructor was if you don't bother to drive for the next 10 years and then get behind the wheel of a car does it? Point is you have to practice - including live fire/war drills and that is expensive.

    The US Navy shot down a civilian Iranian airliner in 1988 by mistake. You can look up the incident and the aftermath on-line.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2020

Share This Page