The 2018 Congressional generic polling thread

Gas Prices went up 1 cent today. At that rate, Gas Prices will be 3.65$ more expensive by next year!

 

Can't wait to get the February numbers after Americans get their bigger paychecks.

 

So, update:


.Currently, the aggregate is: D +7.8, rounded to D +8. That's a decrease of 5 points since the New Year.

The most thorough premium polls, with telephone interviews, are Pew, Qpiac and Wapo.

Those who use robocalling show lesser results.

I also want to point out that once again, RCP has "fudged". Under LV (likely voters), the D lead in the WAPO poll is +15, not +12 and every time a poll provides multiple possible results, RCP always takes the better result for the Republicans. Somehow, it misses those for the Democrats....

Here, see for yourself:



What is driving this lead is that the Democratic Party has more than solidified it's base (97-2, +95), while the Republican Party has not (84-14, +70), it is tromping among women (64-29, +35) and also among minorities (74-15, +59). The Republicans lead among men (51-42, +9). The poll shows a D+9 advantage in voter identification.

I will remind that the Republicans only needed the +6.4% win in 2010 in order to flip 63 seats in the House of Representatives.

In the PEW poll, the numbers are similar, but not identical:



In the Pew poll, the R base is more solidified than in the WAPO poll, but here, the Ds also lead in the male vote, by +9 (in the WAPO poll, the Rs lead by +9). The Rs lead in the white vote by only +6 (Romney won the White vote in 2012 by +19, Trump won in 2016 by +20). The less education a person has, the more likely he or she is to vote for the R candidate, according to this poll.

In the Quinnipiac poll, the internals are also interesting:



I think the internals are easy to read with Qpiac. The trend chart is important: it shows a value that slowly rises, then falls, then rises, etc. And this kind of sinus curve is very often to be found in good polling conducted at pretty regular intervals, because there are always pretty subtle shifts back and forth in the electorate. This is why the D aggregate is likely to increase again in the next weeks, and then will probably shrink some, and then expand some, and then shrink some. The sign of the winning team is where the expansion is usually larger than the shrinkage. The almost classic textbook example of this was the Obama-McCain race of 2008, where we saw an almost perfect sinus curve until September 20th, 2008 (when the stock market jumped off the cliff).

I will try my best to get an aggregate up every week, if not every two weeks. The good part about having waited this time is that none of the polling from the very first posting is duplicated in this posting.

-Stat

 

Excellent. Perhaps we should avoid the expense of having elections and just let the pollsters put people in office.

 

Only the Alt Right want that, fmw, and to govern by diktat.

 

No. That's not how it works.

 

The Dems only need 24 seats to flip the House and right now they are on target for 26.

Granted a great deal can change between now and November but what is currently on the horizon is not exactly positive for the GOP.