The US economy may not grow at all in the 4th quarter

Thank you, Donald Trump, for applying your stable genius to the US economy which appears to be tanking.

Now it appears that 4th quarter of 2019 GDP might be 0.3%, 0.4% or perhaps even less.

This could be why stable geniuses have never won a Nobel prize for economics.

Donald Trump is an incompetent and is applying Trump casino strategy, the House loses, to the US economy.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/15/economy/economy-gdp-fourth-quarter/index.html

 

Tanking? We could use a lot more of this "tanking".

Unemployment has been reduced to about as low as it can go, because you will always have a small group of people who choose not to work for many reasons. It is nearly impossible to reduce the unemployment below that point. The same applies to the GDP. The factories and workers can produce only so much and the population can only be reasonably expected to buy a certain amount. It is like a flexible barrier. It provides a limit, but not a firm limit. You can punch at it and it will give a bit, but ultimately no matter how favorable the economic climate is, the economy cannot improve much beyond that point.

 

Some folks look a gift horse in the mouth. Trump is delivering a historically great economy. The never Trumpers will always put forth anything (mostly BS) to make Trump look bad. That just makes them look foolish to everyone. Meanwhile the Dow just hit 28,000. I think I'll buy a new vehicle -- for cash.

 

The facts are clear. The Trump economy is being financed by burgeoning debt with the debt growing faster than the GDP growth rate.

Debt is rising at ~5% of GDP which is rising at ~1.9% currently. It's even worse when you factor down for the 0.6% population growth rate.

Trump has sold his followers an orange-painted lemon.

 

I don't know about you but I'm seeing a lot of green.

 

0.4% (annualized) = 2019 Q4 Real GDP - 2019 Q3 Real GDP/2019 Q3 Real GDP

Thus, $19,131 trillion - $19,112 trillion/$19,112 trillion X 100 X 4

And the Real GDP Annual Growth Rate = 2019 Q1 + Q2 + Q3 + Q4 - 2018 Q1 + Q2 + Q3 + Q4/2018 Q1 + Q2 + Q3 + Q4

Thus,

$18,927 + $19,021 + $19,112 + $19,131 = $76,191

and

$18,438 + $18,598 + $18,732 + 18,783 = $74,551

and

$76,191 - $74,551 = $1640/$74,551 X 100 = 2.19% (2.2% rounded off)

NOTE: Not a bad annual growth rate, however, let's be realistic......Trump will not achieve his +3% growth rate, undoubtedly, not this year, and most likely, not next year. Also, in reference to the double digits revenue growth rate seekers, once again, "past performance IS NOT indicative of future results", i.e. "After the full implementation of Kasich/Bush tax cuts, we had double digits revenue growth rates"

 

The US economy may not grow at all in the 4th quarter.

Or it may. I can't think of any other outcomes.

 

There is no evidence of your claim that Trump is somehow magically the one delivering "a historically great economy." Anyone who can read a graph can see that he inherited every trend he's taken credit for. And, no, that doesn't mean I credit Obama, but it did start when he was in office.

Once again, he's the rooster taking credit for the sunrise.

You mention the Dow specifically. Try looking at the trend has been on for the past 10 years or so. No rational human being can credit Trump . . . unless you are suggesting he has a time machine.

 

Corporate debt at an all time high surpassing $10 trillion which is over 50% of our GDP??

 

uh..... the Dow just hit 28000 and just keeps breaking records. We may see 30000 before the end of the year.

 

The Dow is not the economy, or even a particularly good economic indicator, and it has been on the same basic upward trend for the past decade or so.

 

Yes, yes and there is a reason there are about a dozen different schools of economics no two of which Agree about much of anything...

 

Except it's been like a rocket since Trump took office.

 

It is one the same basic upward trend as it was before he took office.

 

Uh huh,sure.

 

It has not been climbing at this rate. The DOW is up 41% since Trump took office.

 

Yet another case of Trump worship requiring either the inability to read a graph or the refusal to consult one. Perhaps both. I can do your homework for you if you want, but I encourage you to do your own.

 

Debt always grows with economic confidence. People get complacent and take out loans they cannot afford. What does this have to do with Trump?

 

How has the RATE changed since he has taken office?

I encourage you to look at the past 10 years before responding: https://www.macrotrends.net/1358/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years

Since taking office, Trump's Dow numbers are only just now catching back up with the trend that he inherited.

 

I have been in the stock market for about forty years. I do not look at ten year trends.
Long term, the DOW tends to average about a 5.5% gain per year. Since Trump took office, it has gone up at nearly 15% per year. I don't claim that Trump is responsible for it all, but you cannot discount that this has been a phenomenal rise.

Unfortunately, at my age it is smarter to invest in conservative stocks. . If I had invested in more aggressive stocks, , I would be one incredibly rich person.

 

You can't legitimately talk about "phenomenal rises" without looking at trends. No, looking at the trends, there has been no "phenomenal rise" under Trump that wasn't already there when he took office.

The Trump economic miracle is a religious myth.

 

I looked at the trend. Picking just the past ten years is cherry picking. I look at it long term and that is a long way beyond ten years.

 

Ok, we got a lousy economy under Trump. Now go back to your coloring books.

 

The DJIA dropped 5.6% in 2018. Here is the long-term chart:



You'd be hard pressed to assign the ups and downs to presidents, let alone Trump. You can keep living in the "yuge Trump economy" bubble, but you can't make up your own data to pretend that Trump has been better for stocks than others..

 

Did you read what I wrote? I said "I don't claim that Trump is responsible for it all, but you cannot discount that this has been a phenomenal rise."

Also, I am not in the stock market for one year or ten year trends. I am in for the long run and in the long run, it is the best deal around.