Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  2. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Very sorry to hear that. Did they give him a flu test?

    I thought the usual process was to test for known flu strains and if that is negative, then to go to a suspicion or presumption and test for coronavirus.

    Hope he feels better soon. Keep us posted. :hug:
     
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  3. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Heard from the press conference that they are catching up with the testing backlog. So data should start to better reflect what is actually going on.
     
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  4. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Does population really matter as long as there are enough people for you to interact with?
    I can see why density matters, but I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around just population.
     
  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Also, the first posting from this morning is HERE, here some endquotes from that posting:

    Note: I miscalculated an 11% growth rate from yesterday to today: 421,069 (from yesterday) * 0.11 = 46,318 +421,069 = 467,387, not 471,379. I think I calculated 11.25%. Anyhow, you will see that the figures were extremely close. Stuff happens.

    *468,301*
    So, at end of day, 11:57 PM on March 25th, 2020 (GMT +0), the COVID-19 numbers:

    2020-03-025 COVID-19 EOD 001.png

    By nation:

    2020-03-025 COVID-19 EOD 002.png 2020-03-025 COVID-19 EOD 003.png 2020-03-025 COVID-19 EOD 004.png 2020-03-025 COVID-19 EOD 005.png

    Chile and Poland joined the "thousand club", bringing that unfortunate club to a total of 31 nations. Please note that Chile is in the Southern Hemisphere of our planet, which means they are about to go into their winter. That is an important detail to underscore that the virus can spread all over the planet, even in the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, because Winter rules in the Southern Hemisphere at the same time...

    And with just under 1,000 infections, Thailand, Romania, Saudi Arabia and Finnland are likely next to join the "thousand club".

    Here the statistical look-back to 2020-02-027:

    2020-03-025 COVID-19 EOD 006.png

    Once again, the excel table says it all. The exponential curve continues unabated. We ended this day with 47,232 (+11.22%) more new infections than yesterday and with more deaths all in one day: +2,378 (+12.65%). More importantly, the confirmed COVID-19 cases growth rate is still over +10% and that is the decisive factor. And the growth rate in deaths day to day is between +12 and +14% for the last 9 days straight.

    This morning, I extrapolated the end of day totals to at least 471,379 COVID-19 cases and at least 21,262 deaths. I indicated that it is elementary math. I also indicated at the beginning of this posting that I has a math mistake last night (stuff happens), that 11% growth from last night would actually be: 467,387
    As you can see, we actually landed at 468,301 COVID-19 cases and 21,180 total deaths. So, yeah, the extrapolation in the ballpark.

    You will notice that the death %-rate relative to all officially reported COVID-19 cases has reached a high of 4.52% but when you remove all of the data from China from the picture, it is 4.62%. Either way, we are now moving toward +1.5% over the death rate from 2020-02-027 (3.41%). That becomes especially horrifying when we get into the millions of COVID cases, which is going to happen in the next months. The % of recovered cases continues to go downward, now UNDER 25%, it has been going down every single day since 2020-03-008. The % of those who are still ill therefore continues to rise, for the first time, over 70%. This means that we have a lot of people who are either hanging in the balance or who have not reported themselves as healed.

    In terms of national statistics, the USA posted the largest number of new cases today (+10,796), Italy reported the largest amount of deaths for the day (+683), but it should be noted that Spain was, unfortunately, a very close second, with +656. Right now, the epicenter of the pandemic is in Italy, Spain and France, and to a lesser degree, most of the rest of Europe.

    The long and short of this all is: the exponential curve is continuin, it is not flattening.

    -Stat

    PS.Starting tomorrow, I will be doing the EOD report right before midnight my time (GMT +1), not GMT +0. More sleep is needed...
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  6. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    It does look like Italy may be tipping over. :)

    upload_2020-3-25_18-33-27.png
     
  7. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone know when WorldofMeters updates their daily chart? I see that we are already at 1:19 GMT, but the Single Day Case Stats for the US on March 25th has not been populated.
     
  8. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Donor

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    Good evening. Here are some of metrics I am looking at tonight:

    mar-25-avgcases-mortality.png

    Spain now 11 days into their lockdown continues to see both the raw numbers and average numbers (last 3 days including today) of new cases continue to rise. They have now surpassed where Italy was at this stage in the lockdown, giving us some indication that however bad things ultimately are in Italy, they will likely be worse in Spain. Italy now 16 days into their lockdown has potentially peaked in average new cases, and while still posting 5000 or so cases a day, is starting to average back down.

    Iran has gone from being stable at some 1000-1100 cases a day to over 2000 today. This does not bode well as a doubling in cases - however Iran is counting them - likely will result in a doubling of deaths. On a somewhat positive note, Switzerland is currently stuck at about 1000 - 1100 new cases a day. For the time being it is at least better than going significantly higher. Other nations continue to tick up in average new cases daily with the US of course leading the pack.

    Mortality rates continue to get worse almost every day for each nation. Italy has surpassed 10% and will continue to get worse. Germany now only at .5% and climbing.

    Digging a little deeper into individual nations, today was the first day Lombardy posted less than 300 deaths since Mar 19. They have posted less than 2000 new cases each day since Mar 22, today being on the lower end (only 100 more than the lowest on Mar 23). Unfortunately other problem regions appear to be peaking later. Possibly related to "seeding" from Lombardy between Mar 9 - Mar 10 when only Lombardy was on lockdown.

    In the US, the total as of this posting is 164 deaths. Amazingly I am only seeing 14 deaths from New York vs yesterday's 114. It is almost like someone forgot to enter a digit, but I will be cautiously optimistic that New York managed to get an unusual but welcome reprieve. The US is the only nation posting new cases in 5 digits daily, currently over doubling Italy's new case count per day. This means the US will surpass both China and Italy in total cases on Mar 27.

    Finally, a word about the Netherlands. While it is not on lockdown, it has closed most leisure activities, schools, public gatherings, etc since Mar 15. Now that they are 10 days into these bans, here is how things are going:

    mar-25-netherlands.png

    Thus far, death growth % still quite high, and new cases have yet to peak. However, growth in new cases appears to have slowed. It should be worth paying attention to see if the Netherlands can avoid hospital overload without having to resort to a lockdown. Currently it appears to be the furthest along with a coronavirus outbreak of any nation that has not gone into lockdown (outside of Iran). Although be aware that Italy went into lockdown right when it started to hit ~100 deaths per day, so pretty much tomorrow for the Netherlands stage in the outbreak.

    Please do what you can to protect yourself and your family from this thing.
     
  9. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Donor

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    I think it is typically around 11pm EST. At least that appears to be when they update the front page and move the content from "today" to "yesterday".
     
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  10. tharock220

    tharock220 Well-Known Member

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    Population size absolutely matters. A pathogen will initially spread through a bigger population more slowly because the decreased likelihood of coming into contact with an infected person.

    There's not linear relationship between population and the expected number infected though.
     
  11. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I still don't get it. If I have it and interact with 100 people. Why does it matter if it's in China or the US.
     
  12. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Donor

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    US is up to 13.3K new infections for the day on Worldometers. For the record, China's highest total was 14.1K the day after they changed their case criteria.

    Also, unfortunately, New York has revised their numbers up to 95 deaths for the day. A bit more in line with where they were yesterday. This has now brought the US total death count over 1000.
     
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  13. tharock220

    tharock220 Well-Known Member

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    If 100 people have it in China compared to 100 people having it here, you're less likely to encounter a person with it in China. You brought up population density. Think of it this way, 100 people in one square mile and 400 people in four square miles. Both populations have a single person infected. If encounters are completely random and everyone has an equal chance at encounter each other(obviously not true), in which population are you most likely to catch the disease from the single infected person in?

    http://www.sci.wsu.edu/math/faculty/hudelson/logisticlesson.html

    To be clear, I'm not saying infection rates in the US should be comparable to Italy. It doesn't work that way.
     
  14. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Keeping them in my thoughts for the best possible outcome.
     
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  15. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    Best wishes. People are still catching colds in this time. Not always Covid19.
     
  16. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They update it when people give them figures. With some countries, for example Italy, China and France that is once a day so you get the full results at once allowing you to see the total new cases deaths and so on for the day. With other countries like the US, Germany and the UK it comes in at different times and they do not leave all the results till 24 hours have passed...so around 6pm gmt the US had over new 6,000 cases for the day but now has only 261 - and that goes on throughout the day. Possibly better to choose a time, take note of the numbers and see what it is 24 hours later if you want to keep a check on numbers.
     
  17. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So sorry the test was not give so that they knew where they stood. Hopefully it is either something else or they get it mild and become immune.
     
  18. James California

    James California Well-Known Member Donor

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    ~ So far this year in California the Coronavirus has killed 3 people. The flu has killed 150 .
     
  19. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I have some bad news on the front of your theory. The US is much, much lower on the list of population density than China. This is, of course, a factor of China having a much larger population, but it's population density (in terms of the global ranking) is actually quite close to Italy.

    upload_2020-3-26_1-55-9.png
    upload_2020-3-26_1-53-42.png
    upload_2020-3-26_1-54-1.png
    upload_2020-3-26_1-54-36.png
     
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  20. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    As of 3/26 the USA is ranked #1 in Active Cases ahead of Italy by 10,000.

    The USA is ranked #6 in Total Deaths behind Italy, Spain, China, Iran and France. Only those 6 nations have 4 digit death tolls. Another 6 nations have 3 digit death tolls.
     
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  21. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    A) That is not true. Covid-19 has killed ~67 in California so far.
    B) Please stop comparing Covid-19 to the Flu. Covid-19 is objectively more lethal and spreads easier.
     
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  22. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, but I am specifically asking about the daily chart that they publish at the end of the day. The labeling here seems to suggest that they publish the Data right at 0:00 GMT, but like I said, it still had not been populated roughly 90 minutes after that fact when I checked earlier. I suppose they are still able to review data submitted before that point and adjust accordingly.
    upload_2020-3-26_1-59-44.png
     
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  23. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Oh, I have never seen that and did not know they did it.
     
  24. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Of course population size matters. If you have some disease with a global mortality rate of 10%, the you would expect a country with one billion population to have a proportionally higher number of deaths than a country with one million population. 10% would be the baseline percentage of the population from which we can monitor whether certain subset populations are doing better or worse than the norm.

    If you have a population of 10, 1 person would be "expected" to get sick. In a population of 100, you'd "expect" 10 people to become ill. You'd "expect" 10,000 illnesses in a population of 100,000 and so on. From there, you look for reasons why a country is higher or lower than expected.

    Population density, population age composition, or whether/when a country quarantines are some of the many possible variables which would explain why a subset of the global population (like one country's population) would deviate from the global norm.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
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  25. bx4

    bx4 Well-Known Member

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    I would assume that the data is collected as of 0:00 GMT+0 but it takes a while to populate the list / chart.
     
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