Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Guten Morgen, PFers,

here the numbers as of 09:00 AM GMT +1 (in Germany) on March 26th, 2020. That's 08:00 AM in London and 04:00 AM in NYC:

*472,529*​

You can see the numbers for the individual nations themselves over at WORLDMETERS.
I can tell you that while we slept, Thailand joined the "thousands club", as the 32nd nation. Romania, Saudi Arabia, Finnland and Greece are very close to 1000 and will shortly, sadly, cross over the line.

Here the statistical look-back to 2020-02-027:



COVID-19 reported cases: if you take the growth rate of the last four days before today and average them, then the average is: +11.32%. Assuming that the growth rate today, by the end of the day, will be "just" 11%, then: 468,301 * 0.11 = 51,513. 51,513 + 468,301 = 519,814. So, we are definitely going to break the half-million mark today in the run of the day and will likely end the day somewhere above 520,000.

COVID-19 reported deaths: if you take the growth rate of the last four days before today and average them, then the average is: +12.98%. Assuming that the growth rate today, by the end of the day, will be "just" 12.5%, then: 21,180 * 0.125 = 2,648. 2,648 + 21,180 = 23,828. So, we are likely to end the day between 23,800-24,000 total deaths because of COVID-19.

I wish I could write to you that these numbers will lessen and never in my life would I be gladder to be flat-out wrong about numbers, but with more and more nations joining and going far above the "thousand club", this means that more and more numbers are adding up each day even if the growth rates were to remain the same and never increase, and if you will note, almost completely without any numbers of significance from China. And at some point in time, Russia, Turkey, India, Egypt, Brasil, Venezuela and Indonesia will have to fess up and report real numbers and then all of this stuff will look like child's play.

For me, of course the deaths are the most disturbing part of all of this. Therein lies the human tragedy that cannot and should not be quantified in words. But almost equally as disturbing is the fact that the percentage of people who actually completely heal from this thing continues to go down. If this curve continues to the bitter end, then once the disease has ravaged humanity, we can have hundreds of millions dead, but also a number of BILLIONS alive, but with greatly reduced life-quality.

STAY INDOORS. ISOLATE. STOP THE SPREAD IN EVERY POSSIBLE WAY. I AM EVEN SANITIZING DOORKNOBS AND RAILINGS.

-Stat

 

How do the stats on recovery rates compare to other epidemics? I see a vast difference from country to country on this rate from the charts above. I also suspect there are far more cases, but people for whatever reason had very mild to mild symptoms and didn't think anything of it and haven't been tested. Any ideas on how that can be factored? Thread is too long to go back and read through, so post numbers would be fine, if the info is already here.

 

I honestly don't know and also don't know if you can even compare, for we are not even sure how people qualified "recovered" throughout the last epidemics or the last pandemic (1918-1919). But your question is an outstanding one. I'll look into it. Thanks for your input, glad you are here on this thread.

 

I'm mathematically challenged and I've been wondering this, but haven't asked until now. There's the 4.5% death rate and then there's the 24.2% recovery rate. And then there's the 96% mild and 4% critical. Theoretically, with the death rate growing, shouldn't the mild rate be going down as well, and the critical should be going up?

Like, if this is everyone identified so far in the pool, that pool should be a constant(that's how I feebly understood math.)

 

Sometimes, they do it every 5 minutes, sometimes it takes 20 Minutes.

 

While most Americans slept, the death toll in the USA from COVID-19 went over the 1,000 mark:



Also, in terms of total cases, the USA is slightly less than 6,000 cases behind Italy. Likely today or tomorrow, the USA will surpass Italy and definitely, at in 3 days or probably less, will also surpass China. It may all even happen on the same day.

The first American died of COVID-19 on February 29, 2020 - one month ago.

In one month we have gone from 1 to slightly over 1,000 deaths. That's a THOUSAND-FOLD increase within a 28-day time period. Those are cold, hard stats.

If that curve remains the same, then in one month (end of April), that would mean 1,000,000 US deaths. That's how the death curve would look, if conditions remain the same.

 

The 4.51% is based on the actual number of dead when divided by the actual number of officially reported cases. That can be classified as a death rate.

The % of those recovered is harder to qualify because exactly what does "recovered" mean? However, it is clear that that % continues to drop.

The 96% and the 4% refer only to the cases that are not yet resolved, aka, not yet classified as either recovered or dead. So, those are percentages of percentages. Glass within a glass. Genie inside the bottle.

When you look at the total number of cases, if the % of "recovered" continues to go down and the death rate is hanging around 4%, it has been there since 03/17, 9 days ago. This means automatically that the % of people who have not recovered, who are to one degree or another, still ill, continues to rise.

And as for mild and critical - again, it depends on how you qualify it and WHO qualifies it. There are no universal standards around the world as to what qualifies as mildly ill or critically ill. But we are assuming that the critically ill are in hospitals, likely on respirators or in triage tents.

 

Gives Dead Man's Curve a whole new meaning, unfortunately.

 

I don't think people realize how incredibly quickly the USA got from 1 single death to 1,032.

And worst yet, 1,021 of those 1,032 have happened since March 14th, just 12 DAYS AGO.

The ELEVENTH death in the USA was reported just 12 days ago:

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-update...us-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-03-04/

This means that the thousand-fold increase over a month is actually a NINETY-THREE fold increase over 12 days. 93-fold sounds a helluva lot better than 1000-fold, but it's actually happening faster than people think.

One day, hopefully soon, it will ebb. But not this week. We may soon see thousands dying per day for a while, especially since supplies are lacking.

 

Even if we had sufficient supplies, doctors, nurses, ICU beds, ventilators for EVERYONE who is critical here in America it would not make a significant difference to the final toll because we are NOT protecting our most vulnerable effectively.

I honestly wish that was NOT our current reality but regrettably it is because there is no unified plan of action and no single national authority empowered to enforce a LOCKDOWN of the magnitude necessary to alter that curve.

We are going to end up in the history books and the medical text books as the Case Study in how NOT to manage a Pandemic.

Hopefully something will be learned from this very costly lesson we are being taught the hard way right now.

 

~ Unlike the left-tainted U.S. news media, some of us try to keep things in perspective. America is doing a very good job keeping this new virus under control. The flu not so much ...

· Biochemist Laurel Edelman is the chief executive officer of a company called Sickweather. The Kansas City, Missouri-based firm uses social media posts, past trends and known facts about the contagion to track the spread of influenza.
“It’s amazing to me that everyone is watching this new virus out of Wuhan, China, because of a couple dozen deaths. And yet there have been over 8,200 deaths in the United States due to just regular flu. That’s unnecessary in my mind, and I think it’s sad that we have so many deaths.” Edelman said.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article239614573.html

 

CEO's have a LOUSY track record when it comes to making predictions.

 

~ I don't think some people realize how much worse it could be in the U.S. if we didn't respond so quickly. Remember §aint Obama
declared H1N1 a national emergency six months after his administration declared a public health emergency. At that point, H1N1 had claimed more than 1,000 American lives, according to the CDC. Yet the news media back then was not in a panic and never sensationalized the Obama administration slow response .
The U.S. is doing a much better job this time around - no matter what the "news" media and doom & gloom enthusiasts claim. We should worry more about our fellow drivers when out on the highways and city streets.

 

Is that the right way of looking at it?
In order to get to 1,000,000 in one month, starting from 1,000, the death rate would have to increase by 27% every single day for 30 days.

Is that realistic? No nation has come close to that rate of growth, and the world certainly hasn't. Worldwide total deaths hit 1,000 on February 10 and now, six weeks later, the global death toll is just over 21 k.

Isn't it more realistic to assume a daily increase of closer to 10% or even 8%? That seems to be what has happened around the world.

 

Keep that **** out of this thread. If you want to discuss politics there are plenty of other threads for you to do it in.

 

Interesting fact. American overall death rate for 2018 is .8%, South Korea’s COVID-19 death rate, according to some reports I seen, is .6%, some suggest as low as .3%. Overall for the under 30 crowd, it’s .2%. Germany’s is .05% (astonishing). I’ve seen some suggestion America’s COVID-19 death rate will settle in around .6%. Odd. Why the mass hysteria?

Interesting question. Who is paying for this “free money”(The $2 Trillion handout)? Our great-grand-children of course. We all should leave them a note of thanks. After all , we are leaving them plenty of notes of debt.

 

~ Yes perhaps we should keep "politics" out of this thread - but there it is ...

 

Take it up with them IN ANOTHER THREAD OR VIA PM

 

Days like these, I'm actually happy that I'm a social klutz reject failure. It might very well be keeping me alive.

 

That’s terrifying!

 

The U.S., being a democratic republic, makes almost everything a political issue by definition, and yes, we never have handled epidemics as effectively as some totalitarian police states will, so yes, keep the whining to separate threads and just use this one for updates on cases and medical news.

 

The mortality rate is dependent on testing rates. There are almost certainly many people who have the virus, have mild symptoms and are not counted as "confirmed cases". The way each country tests its citizens will affect the mortality rate.

To me, the most important figure is the deaths per million of population. That gives a real measure of how the virus affects the country - both in terms of infection rate and mortality. Italy and Spain have been hit hard at 124 and 87 per million respectively.
USA and Germany are exactly equal on 3 per million. Some of the other worst-hit European countries are hovering around 20 per million.

Note that this figure can ONLY go up. My hope is that most industrialised countries do not go far beyond about 30 per million. That would leave USA with about 10,000 deaths. Obviously I am hoping for far fewer deaths than that.

 

Looking at the raw numbers if no country was doing anything to control or restrain the virus is interesting, but every country in the world is taking action to minimize the worst case scenario.

 

Total numbers tell you nothing. Rates are the important metric, And those rates will peak and go down. The case curve based on the last three days is started to reach an inflection point in NY which is the hardest hit area of the US with roughly half of all US cases.

 

And those of us in quarantine, etc are trying to do our best to minimize the worst case scenario. This isn't including scientists, doctors, etc who are on the front lines of the battle. I feel like this can still be salvaged to a degree if we all play our parts perfectly.