Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

HERE the COVID-19 numbers for the day before, Saturday, 2020-05-023 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0).

And now the COVID-19 numbers for Sunday, 2020-05-024 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Sunday, 2020-05-024 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

*1,686,436*
+19,608 cases today over the day before.
3/5 of all US states have at least 10,000 confirmed C19 cases!
99,300 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, -700 shy of the 100,000-mark.
617 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
For the first time in a long time, another nation had more daily deaths than the USA: Brazil.
451,702 people have recovered, 1,135,434 are, however, still sick.
​

You can find confirmation of the statistics these reports at the WAYBACK MACHINE. Search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

I screenshotted the table down to 2020-04-028 because the extrapolation at the bottom of this analysis. Very soon, that extrapolation will have run its course...

The 7-day new cases average from the week that just ended (from 2020-05-018 through 2020-05-024) was 22,682 cases per day, slightly under the average from the week before.

The 7-day new deaths average from the week that just ended (from 2020-05-018 through 2020-05-024) was 1,189 deaths per day, definitely below the average from the week before.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total cases, descending:​

COVID-19 in the US Territories (unsorted):​

45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (956) is next up, but the new cases in the 5 smallest states are moving very slowly, an interesting phenomenon to watch, since all 5 are geographically far-flung states either at the edge of the US border to Canada or not even attached to the continental USA. That being said, UT just recorded +25 cases.

30 of those 45 plus Veterans affairs (13,263) now have more than 10,000 cases, with SC having crossed over the 10,000 line on 2020-05-024, so actually, it's 31, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 27. KS (9,085) and DE (8,809) are up next to join the 10,000 club.

The state of NY alone has more COVID-19 cases (371,193) than any other nation in the world except the USA itself, of which NY is of course a part. However, very soon, the countries of Brazil (363,618 ) and/or Russia (344,481), which are both growing vastly more daily cases than NY these days, will surpass NY's numbers in the next week. Brazil will probably surpass NY's C19 total today, 2020-05-025, Memorial Day in the USA.

We are seeing more statistical upward movement in the Navajo Nation and among Veterans Affairs.

Are people even paying attention to Puerto Rico, Guam and the Virgin Islands?

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, new daily cases, descending:​

4 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-024. The day before, it was also 4 states. IL was well over +2,000 while CA was just under +2,000, and both NY and MA well over +1,000 new COVID-19 positives. Also, 8 other states had between +500 & +800 new cases, among them, TX, MN, FL and MD. Anyone who thinks this pandemic is fading away would be well-served to think again about this. We will soon be seeing hotspots in places where we did not expect them, or at least, this soon. Quite obviously, the hottest of the new hotspots is now in Chicago and environs.

35 states +DC reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 37 + DC.

5 states reported no new cases: KY, ID, HI, MT and AK.

COVID-19 in the USA, total tests administered, using the worldwide rankings:​

For seeing the number of tests over a much longer time-frame, go to the WAYBACK MACHINE link at the top of the report.

Before 2020-05-022, something was not functioning right with administered test numbers. For the second time (on 2020-05-021), less total US tests were recorded as administered as the day before. That should not be possible. Until I can get some solid answers about this, I won't be reporting total comparisons, because I don't want to be publishing false information.

On 2020-05-020, the website listed 14,117,870 tests as administered.
For 2020-05-021, it said 13,439,114.
That's -678,576 cases. The number should be a +, not a -.

So, I will research...

However, for 2020-05-022, the USA has now administered 13.9 million tests to date and that for 2020-05-023, it was 14.4 million, a jump of roughly 500,000 cases. On 2020-05-024, it was 14.7 million, a jump of roughly 300,000 cases. Let's see if the numbers continue to march forward as they should...

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, new daily deaths, descending:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

At +617 daily deaths (and behind Brazil in the daily deaths worldwide), the USA saw the smallest daily death total since Monday, 2020-03-30 (+506 deaths on that day). I am grateful that we came in under +700 deaths, a sure sign that the wave is abating, at least for now. And I will rejoice on the day when I can report ZERO new daily C19 deaths in the USA.

1 state reported more than 100 daily deaths. The day before, it was also 1. NY lead in the daily deaths this time, followed by MA, IL and NJ.

38 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 37.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total deaths, descending:
​

39 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. Currently at 97 deaths, UT will be next to cross over into that gruesome statistic.

Of those 38, 18 states in the Union have a total of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths. In about 2 weeks, MN, NC and AZ are likely to join that unlucky club.

With 29,231 total deaths at current, the state of NY has more deaths to mourn than every other COUNTRY on the Earth save the USA itself, UK and Italy. However, at the rate that Brazil is suddenly moving in the rankings, soon Brazil will have many, many more deaths to mourn than NY state.

EXTRAPOLATION:​

On 2020-04-028, 27 days ago now including that day, over two postings, I extrapolated that if we "only" had +1,400 US deaths per day until the end of May, 2020, then we would reach over 103,000 dead Americans at that time, before the summer even begins. In the days since, on 18 of those 27 days, we came in over that "only". Here again the excel-table for this report; it goes back to that date:



In a nutshell:

Time frame = 27 days from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-024.

1,400 * 27 = 37,800 extrapolated deaths.
Actual deaths = 42,503
Number of actual deaths over the extrapolation = 42,503-37,800 = 4,703 more deaths than originally extrapolated
4,703 = the equivalent of 3 days (at an extrapolated 1,400 per day) +503 in reserve =1,400-503= 897.

This means that were ZERO COVID-19 deaths to be reported in the USA for the next THREE days in a row including today (2020-05-025 through 027 - Monday through Wednesday) and then, "only" +897 deaths were to be reported on 2020-05-028 (Thursday), we would still be exactly on track to go well over 103,000 deaths in the USA at EOD on May 31st, which is 6 days after today, 7 days including today. Perversely enough, this is actually an improvement over the last many extrapolations, since we once again had a day (thank goodness) with well under 1,400 daily deaths but regardless, the simple math is still horrifyingly unassailable.

Yesterday, I wrote the following:

And so it was... mostly. We came in, thankfully, UNDER +700 new deaths, but the path of my logical argument remained and remains still.

On Saturday, 2020-05-024, we ended the day with 99,300 US deaths from COVID-19, putting us -700 from the 100,000 line right now, so even just +1,000 deaths per day gets us just under +107,000 at the end of May without even having to extrapolate anymore. We have now seen 3 Sundays in a row where the daily death toll in the USA went under +1,000 (+750, +865 and yesterday, +617), which you can see at the Excel table above. We haven't seen a Monday since 2020-03-030 where the death toll in the USA was under +1,000 and although today is a holiday in the USA, this doesn't mean that the dying simply stops. And the chances of the USA suffering at least 700 daily deaths today is extremely high, so in a profoundly saddening and yet ironic twist of fate, it looks very much as if we will be a 100,000 Americans who have died from COVID-19. Then again, we may get lucky. Wait and see. Also, John Hopkins tends to lag slightly behind WORLDOMETER when it comes to the end numbers, so a number of US news outlets may first be doing a lot of media coverage of the number 100,000 first one Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.

Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 100,000-106,500:



Between Memorial Day and the end of the month of May, 2020, it will be as if one of those US-American cities was simply and for all eternity wiped-off the face of the world. Then maybe, just maybe for the naysayers and C19-deadenders out there, this **** will finally be real.

Now, we could have a legitimate discussion about the psychology of going from a 5-digit figure to a 6-digit figure and then from a 6-digit figure to a 7-digit figure because really, what is the big difference between, say, 99,800 and 100,200? There's actually very little difference, but suddenly seeing a 6-digit figure makes this all appear to be suddenly larger and more menacing when in reality, it was large and menacing the entire time.

Further, it is unreasonable to think that the deaths are simply going to stop just like turning off a spigot. Look at the current number of active (meaning: "still sick") cases in the USA: 1,135,434 (the day before, it was: 1,121,531). At least 2-3% of those cases are people who are in serious condition, decidedly closer to death than to life, so let's take 2.5% as the mean: 28,386. This is why the deaths won't simply stop all at once.

Let's see what Monday brings. A good Memorial Day to all of you.




-Stat

 

Not much attention is focused on Africa and India they seem to be overlooked because there is a paucity of data and a corresponding lack of news about what is happening.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#c-africa"

Per Worldometers if you click on the Africa tab you will see that out of the 347k deaths worldwide Africa accounts for just under 1% of them even though they comprise 16% of the world population at 1.22 billion. To put this into perspective India has a population of 1.38 billion. Speaking of which India's death toll represents just 1.1% of the world total deaths.

Combined India and Africa total 2.6 billion people and make up 34% of the total population of the world.

So when it comes to tracking we are not seeing what is happening in at least one third of the world population and that is probably on the low end given that these are not the only places where there is both an absence of data and news.

What does this mean?

The only data that does appear to have credibility is from South Africa and given that they have begun an aggressive campaign of screening and testing it is the best that we have to go on. They have completed almost 600k tests and found a total of 23k cases of which only half are considered to be Active and the rest Recovered. They are reporting the 3rd highest death toll behind Egypt and Algeria.

If we make the assumption that their data is representative of the rest of Africa and they are just under 5% of the population of the continent then at this stage if we extrapolated that we could get a better picture of what else is happening. Testing to Cases would come to 3.9% which seems to be in line with the rest of the world as does a death rate of 1.9% of Total Cases.

Factoring that back to the entire continent of Africa comes to 454k cases and 8.6k deaths.

If we do that for the combined India and Africa population it would come to 990k cases and 21k deaths.

Obviously one would have to subtract the actual reported WoM numbers which would bring them down somewhat but this does give us at least some idea of what might be happening in the other 34% of the world that we are not able to track because of a lack of data.

 

OUCH

All is not well in Antibellumland

 

A note to all our PF readers about the daily COVID-19 analyses that I provide for the worldwide figures and since the last week of April, also for the USA, with occasional reports also for Russia and soon, also for Brazil:

Right around the beginning of June, 2020, I will soon be shortening these analyses and providing far less screenshots. Instead, use the WORLDOMETER link (or the yesterday function there, when needed) to sort the data table for yourselves.

There are a lot of really, really smart people on this thread and I think it's becoming overkill for me to provide so much graphic information. I will still be noting details I think are worth highlighting, but alot of the head-math I will soon be leaving up to you good folks to crunch for yourselves.

These things take a lot of time to write and soon, I will have far less time to write them. So, efficiency will be necessary.

-Stat

 

There is already a spike in new cases because of the reopening and Memorial Day is going to result in yet another spike.

I wrote it up in this thread if you are interested in the details.

http://politicalforum.com/index.php...-lethally-wrong.571425/page-3#post-1071718924

We are beginning the 2nd wave and the first wave is not even over yet!

 

@Sanskrit would like to repeat for you that young, healthy individuals with zero comorbidities are unlikely to die from this virus.

Breaking news at 11.

 

Oh, the excitement of it all.

Is that 11 am or 11 pm??

 

I take the weekend figures always with a grain of salt, especially this weekend, the first 3 day weekend in the US.
I am worried about the backlash of this weekend. People were out and playing and partying hard from all over the 4 Corners and some.
Never seen so many Texan.

 

It's that time for the update to the State Tracking Project. There are no new data points in this graph. Quick reminder that the formula for percentage is jacked, just subtract 1 from each of these categories ("Cases (PC) Growth" and "Deaths (PC) Growth" and "Tests Per 100K Growth") to get the percentage increase. Here's the Data from the States and Territories, in groups of 12, and ranked by Mortality.












Cases (PC) Diff rankings show that the District of Columbia, Rhode Island, Illinois, Maryland, and Delaware are the top five States in terms of seeing their Cases, per capita, grow the most. The range being 1,331.75 to 1,242.59. The five slowest States are Oregon, Vermont, Alaska, Montana, and Hawaii. The range being 72.54 to 2.82.

Cases (PC) Growth Rankings show that Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arkansas in terms of seeing their Cases grow, as a percentage, the most. The range being 31.31% to 24.44%. On the opposite end are New York, Alaska, Vermont, Montana, and Hawaii. The range being 3.25% to 0.63%.

Deaths (PC) Diff Rankings show that Rhode Island, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and District of Columbia are the top five States in terms of seeing their Deaths, per capita, grow the most. The range being 103.12 to 69.51. On the opposite end are Puerto Rico, Alaska, Vermont, Montana, and Hawaii. All five of these States saw their deaths, per capita, stay precisely the same over the last week. **** YES.

Deaths (PC) Growth Rankings show that Wyoming, Iowa, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire are the top five States in terms of seeing their Deaths, as a percentage, grow the most. The range being 50.00% to 21.64%. On the opposite end are Puerto Rico, Alaska, Vermont, Montana, and Hawaii. Shockingly, when your deaths per capita grow at 0.00, the percentage at which your deaths grow is 0.00%.

Mortality Diff Rankings show that Pennsylvania, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Ohio, and New Hampshire. The range being 0.468% to 0.278%. On the opposite end are Maine, North Carolina, Minnesota, West Virginia, and Puerto Rico. The range being -0.354% to -1.153%.

Testing (Positive %) Diff Rankings show that Missouri, Puerto Rico, North Dakota, Texas, and Alabama are the top five States in terms of seeing their Percentage of Positive Test increase the most. The range being 1.04% to 0.182%. On the opposite end are Georgia, Connecticut, New York, District of Columbia, and New Jersey. The range being -1.85% to 4.48%.

Tests Per 100K Diff show that District of Columbia, New Mexico, Rhode Island, New York, and North Dakota are the top five States to see their Tests Per 100K increase the most. The range being 2,578.2 to 1,350.9. On the opposite end are Colorado, Oregon, Idaho, Texas, and Missouri. The range being 430.2 to 87.6.

Tests Per 100K Growth show that Maine, District of Columbia, Georgia, Nevada, and South Carolina and the top five States to see their tests, as a percentage, increase. The range being 57.22% to 36.25%. On the opposite end are West Virginia, Idaho, Washington, Texas, and Missouri. The range being 13.52% to 3.67%.

 

Extremely early update for the USA, circa 11:00 on the East Coast, 2020-05-025 (Memorial Day).

Currently, and with only 8 states reporting anything at all, the USA has already grown +3,291 C19 cases and +81 deaths. More text below the graphics.





Because there are only 8 states, you can compare them yourselves with the results from the EOD analysis for yesterday:






For instance, VIRGINIA:

on 2020-05-024, VA reported +495 C19 cases and +12 deaths. Today, it has already reported +1,483 C19 cases and +37 deaths, a huge jump over yesterday.

And ALABAMA:
On 2020-05-024, AL reported +361 C19 cases and +2 deaths. Today, AL has already reported +30 C19 cases but +8 deaths. That's 10 times as less cases, but 4 times as many deaths, and AL is one of the states that updates figures throughout the day.

Check out the other 6 states yourself.

If Virginia is a portent of things to come, then it is going to be a very bloody Memorial Day in the USA.

 

The Navajo Nation had its second weekend of a complete lock down, no business open, even gas stations closed, plus the weekend curfew.
People who were going to party at Lake Powell could not stop to gas up, or take a leak, all toilets locked.
Wonder how many ran out of gas on their way to Lake Powell ?
Or desperately looking for a rest room. Lots of craping along the roads, I bet.

 

The Darwin Award goes this time to Germany.
To the Baptist Church in Frankfurt a M and the Restaurant in Leer.
2 good examples what happens when people quit taking the virus serious.

 

How can we be sure it's due to the reopening? And it seems like the daily growth rate is still under control(I'm sure the OP would've mentioned if we went back to an exponential situation mathematically.)

 

I hope they get a handle on this:

 

In what can only be seen as a great sign for that country, Italy has reported only +92 new deaths today.
When you compare that to the steady stream of +700 to +800 deaths per day for a number of weeks on end, this is truly good news.

I am totally happy for Italy that hopefully, the wave is going away there.

 

A short spike would not make a curve exponential, but a long spike, holding over a considerable amount of time, would.
Generally, anything that is growth rate 9% and above is considered exponential, to varying degrees.
a 50% growth rate would be the horror of the century, that would literally mean a doubling every single day.
Around 12% = a doubling every 7 days.

The worldwide curve and the curve in our homeland has been logistical for a while now. A logistical curve can still pile up a helluva lot of deaths and sickness, but it takes longer, which was and still is exactly the reason for mitigation. In other words, at least for the first wave (and hoping that the first wave is now receding), the mitigation mostly worked.

 

Update 19:15 my time, 13:15 on the East Coast of the USA:


We are now 539 away from 100,000.

I highlighted the Monday before this one to give a baseline and see how parallel the stats become to each other as the day progresses.

 

So on this memorial day, we will most certainly mourn and grieve 100,000 dead. It's 100,000 lives taken way too soon and especially the first responders are the ones I mourn especially so, to save others(or try) they gave up their own lives. That kind of selfless sacrifice should be applauded by all.

Maybe there is a bit of selfishness in wanting to preserve what I perceive to be our values and the merits of our system. While ideals are all good and well, the reality of the situation calls for suppressing our will and our values.(I recently watched a video on Bismarck's realpolitick and it made me think: The way Bismarck saw things was pretty smart.)

 

This notification just came over WORLDOMETER in the last hour:



This means that the total death toll in Spain (thankfully), has been reduced by 1,915 but also causes a wierd looking skew in the current worldwide statistics, for right now, when you take away the 1,915 from the overall total, we are at only +246 deaths worldwide, but +384 in the USA alone.....

The explanation that WORLDOMETER has provided sounds very plausible and if you will note, I mentioned in the last days that with literally thousands of sources to have to draw upon and also to validate, it's a small wonder that WORLDOMETER doesn't have to publish corrections more often.

For this kind of clerical correction, which means that 1,915 LESS people have died, I am very, very thankful. VERY.

-Stat

 

Word, what happened to the people of Italy was some of the saddest stuff I'd ever seen in my life. We've all weeped too much loss these last five and six months, it's time for the human race to make a counterattack .

 

Currently at 99,771 COVID-19 deaths, the USA is now 229 away from 100,000.

In relation to the numbers of the last weeks, very few deaths have been reported in the USA today. Not one single state has reported even close to 100 daily deaths. This is exceedingly good news, especially if those figures hold and today ends up not being an outlier. Wait and see.

 

So, specifically reporting for that Philly section, yesterday was a beautiful day of no cases right?

Yeah, not so much today...(407 new cases). But I decided to play with the math a little more(and by playing with the math, the calculator is doing the work lol.). I subtracted the total test number of today, from the total test number of yesterday to find the number of tests actually conducted(or read, depending on how you want to frame it) and that number is 3,674.

So that's let's say 11.5% of tests on monday came back positive for the coronavirus and anywhere between 88-89% negative for the coronavirus.

 

Sill Holiday.
I expect a spike by next weekend or middle of next week. The US will pay dearly for this Holiday weekend. By June we will be back to square one. Sadly I am very confident, that the 200,000 mark will be reached by end of next month. What I observed over the week end was just insane. This morning I wanted to buy some dog food at Wal Mart, I turned around and went home, it was packed.

 

Here's the thing about being a procrastionator, either you're right or grossly wrong and you don't wanna be the one that's wrong(too late for you to edit though lol), because people are gonna troll with this if it doesn't end up being true. Just saying.

 

I suspect Hollywood contributed the frosting to that particular cake, psychologically speaking.

Good thoughts, thanks BW.