Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Thank you for noting that point. I wish I could provide more for that, but there is really now way to define exactly what "recovered" means. Does it mean that a person is now completely healthy, or does it mean that he survived the ordeal and is no longer in the hospital. Or does it mean that a state waited 6 weeks to hear from residents whether or not they are doing ok and, upon hearing nothing, simply moved the data from "sick" to "recovered". Because of federalism (and not just in the USA, to note), this is a real quandary.

    Categories that we really can define are:
    -number of hospitalizations
    -number of people who have been on ventilators
    -number of people discharged from hospitals
    -number of dead

    those are categories that we can very precisely define, because there are exact stats for them. But "recovered"? Really hard to be exact about it, much less get a uniform definition of the word itself.

    For this reason and this reason alone, I have mostly avoided talk about the number of people who have recovered from C19.

    Nice to hear from you.

    Stat
     
  2. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    As it is nice to hear from you. Due to my various ailments in life(CP, hearing loss, etc) it's been rather easy to stay at home and in that sense, not too much has changed. My political opposition is much more philosophical than personal, but I won't deny that getting out of the home in a safe manner every once and a while is certainly a goal.

    I do not think I'd been exposed to the bug(it was widespread since March, and I'd been in two COVID hot spot states, Michigan and now back with my family in PA.) Not to press my luck but I think when this pandemic is over there'll be people who were never exposed to the virus and I hope to be one of them.

    Speaking of my family, there are some things you can still do, such as online shopping for clothes and I'd gotten quite a few new clothes now. I might take a picture of some of the new clothes and post them(Since you shared your dog and your kid and stuff like that), little ways that we can sort of keep a fresh prospective of hope in the midst of corona.
     
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Sounds good.
     
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  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) thinks that a second wave is hitting Arkansas right now.
     
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Oh....Missouri, Missouri, Missouri...

    https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article242946596.html

    She was symptomatic, she knew she had COVID-19. She still served well over 80 customers, all of whom had to be tested and now must now go into quarantine. After serving them, she also visited a DQ, a Walmart and a fitness center. How quaint. Typhoid Mary has become "Covid-Candy".

    From the article:

    Freedom! Stupidity! Damn!
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Right now, there are at least 138 COVID-19 vaccine projects running across the world, many stretching over a number of nations, so this really is an international effort.

    The following link is in German, but at the bottom is a large table of the larger of these projects, the name of the potential vaccine, the type vaccine, in which phase they are in, where they are being run and where they are going to be continued, who is financing them and the internet sources for this info.

    For instance, BioTech / Pfizer and Fosun have teamed up on a vaccine project that started in Germany and has been run in Mainz, Germany and Puurs, Belgium and as of May 5th, will also be continuing phase 1 in Kalamazoo, MI / Andover, MA / Chesterfield, MO.

    https://www.vfa.de/de/arzneimittel-...pfstoffe-zum-schutz-vor-coronavirus-2019-ncov

    It may be really helpful for people to see that in spite of the loud din of people screaming this, that and the other, the scientific community is collaborating and working its ass off to get a reliable vaccine out there.

    I think you will be amazed to see the various locations around the world where vaccine trials are running or are soon going to run. Pus, I bet that by reading the table, you will start to pick up some German!

    -Stat
     
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  7. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Covid19 World Report Cards.....UPDATE May 24, 2020

    Number of deaths per 1M pop

    Trump: “If we can stay substantially under the 100 thousand, I think we all did a very good job.”

    Note: 100,000 deaths in the U.S. = 302 Deaths per 1M pop...…C+
    Note: 134,000 deaths in the U.S. = 404 Deaths per 1M pop...…..C-

    A; Excellent
    B; Good
    C; Fair
    D; Poor
    E; Very poor


    A+......0 - 49...….Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, Thailand, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Greece, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines,
    A...…..50 - 99...……. Austria, Finland
    A-...….100 - 149...….Germany, Portugal, Denmark, Japan
    B+...…150 - 199...….Canada, Luxembourg
    B...…...200 - 249...….Switzerland
    B-...…..250 - 299...….
    C+...….300 - 349...….USA, Ireland, Netherlands
    C...…...350 - 399...….
    C-...…..400 - 449...….Sweden, France
    D+...….450 - 499...….
    D...…...500 - 549...….UK, Italy
    D-...…..550 - 599...….
    E+...….550 - 599...….
    E...…...600 - 649...….Spain
    E-...…..over 650...…..Belgium

    Latest movers;

    Spain, from D- to E+
    UK, from D+ to D
    Sweden, from C+ to C-
    USA, from B- to C+...……..FAIR+
    Canada, from A- to B+
    Germany, from A to A-
    Denmark, from A to A-

    NOTE; Group A+ and A will most likely stay ...…..Congrats!
    NOTE: Germany, Denmark will most likely stay at A-...….Well done!
    NOTE: UK, Italy, both at 541, thus, will most likely be downgraded to D-
     
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Update 002, 2020-05-023:

    with 6 hours left in the day on the East Coast of the USA, 0 hours left in my day in Germany and 2 hours before EOD for WORLDOMETER - and with 15 states to report daily deaths, with +1,004 deaths today, the US is now at 98,651 COVID-19 deaths and is therefore 1,349 from the horrifying 100,000 death mark:

    2020-05-023 COVID-19 USA Update 002 - 001.png

    2020-05-023 COVID-19 USA Update 002 - 002.png
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 USA Update 002 - 003.png

    I am assuming that we may land at +1,100 to +1,150 daily deaths at EOD GMT +0, and assuming less deaths on Sunday, which is something we all hope for, then it looks very much as if the USA will go over the 6-digit mark in total deaths directly on Memorial Day, Monday, 2020-05-025.

    Good night, PFers, sleep well when your time comes,

    Stat
     
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  9. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Unbelievable. If anyone dies, she can look forward to manslaughter charges.

    I don't get how this is happening. Are ordinary people THIS bereft of moral fibre? Killing level bereft?
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
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  10. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Great chart, thank you. I'm in the A+ group, and was interested to see that Greece is still lone soldier for the entire Western World. Well done Greece. The ancient empire may yet rise again!

    Meantime, it goes to show that money means nothing, if it can't even keep you in the A+ group. Greece is probably one of the poorest nations in the Western World, yet there she is .... showing her neighbours how it's done.

    EDITED TO ADD: Vietnam has had zero deaths, so should definitely be included in the A+ group.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
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  11. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Nope the Bismarck went the wrong direction and hit bottom.
    If this one works it will go sky high and make history.
     
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  12. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Dumb bitch
     
  13. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    I picked up some.

    groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehl
     
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  14. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Not dumb .. incredibly selfish. And morally bankrupt.
     
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  15. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Not sure where your getting that from, his briefing discusses they have increased testing so much they are finding new asymptomatic cases where before it was only those with symptoms. They have seen a rise in cases but it's relatively low in comparison and the death rate is one of the best in the country. Their Positivity rate per test is only around 4% so the that's well below the 10% threshold the CDC has set. Overall Arkansas hasn't had the trouble with this virus that the NE has thank goodness because my parents live there. If your interested here is todays briefing from the governor.
     
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  16. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    To your point, Friday was by far the largest amount of patients deemed "recovered" in the US over a 24 hour period. During that time, over 51,000 were declared recovered. The previous record was around 17,500.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...GdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#

    One thing that I am starting to notice with some increasing frustration is the lack of reporting on recoveries from a number of the States in the US, including some of the most impacted States. I don't understand why these States refuse to report on recoveries and I would like to try and estimate the true number of recoveries.

    This is a list of the States which are not reporting recoveries, along with their current positive reports and deaths (as per Covidtracking.com):

    California (90,631 infected...3708 dead)
    Florida (50,127 infected...2312 dead)
    Georgia (42,132 infected...1811 dead)
    Illinois (107,796 infected...4790 dead)
    Indiana (30,901 infected...1943 dead)
    Massachusetts (91,662 infected...6304 dead)
    Missouri (11,752 infected...676 dead)
    Nebraska (11,662 infected...147 dead)
    Oklahoma (5,960 infected...311 dead)
    Puerto Rico (3,100 infected...127 dead)
    Washington (19,265 infected...1050 dead)

    In order to estimate the number of recovered in each of these States, consider the median timeframe from infection to recovery, which is 2 weeks for mild cases and 3-6 weeks for severe cases. So, let's use one month to be conservative

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

    On 4/26, this is the number of infections reported for those same States

    California - 42164
    Florida - 31528
    Georgia - 23401
    Illinois - 43903
    Indiana - 15012
    Massachusetts - 54938
    Missouri - 6997
    Nebraska - 2732
    Oklahoma - 3253
    Puerto Rico - 1371
    Washington - 14204

    That's a total of 239,503. Subtract out the deceased and you get 216,324. And that number is definitely conservative because any mild cases - which should be around 80% of the new cases - that took place between 4/26 and 5/10 should be recovered by now as well.

    So, conservatively, the number of recovered total for the US should go from 361,239 to at least 577,563.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2020
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  17. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    It appears as though we will reach 100,000 Covid deaths on Memorial Day! :eek:
     
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  18. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    I have my doubts about the definition of who has died given the shenanigans in some states.

    Not all states are following the CDC definition.
     
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  19. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nort...ace-masks-covid-19_n_5ec99a8dc5b64f98a3dd808c

    :applause:

    The voice of reason and sanity who understands that we are all in this together.
     
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before, Friday, 2020-05-022 (EOD GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT). Also here in a nutshell:
    During the run of the day on 2020-05-023, there were some intermittent analyses:
    USA EOD report 2020-05-022, posted 2020-05-023, 14:15 GMT +2, #9392.
    USA update 001, 2020-05-023, 20:48 GMT +2, #9399.
    USA update 002, 2020-05-024, 00:21 GMT +2, #9408.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Saturday, 2020-05-023 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    *****5,397,950*****
    +99,938 cases today over yesterday.
    There are now 107 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.

    343,608 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
    1,036 Americans & 965 Brazilians died from COVID-19 on this day.
    You can find confirmation of the statistics these reports at the WAYBACK MACHINE. Search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.​

    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - excel table.png


    We saw +99,938 new cases, as compared the day before (+107,521*), -4,583 less cases than the day before. The growth rate was 1.89%. The day before, the growth rate was 2.09%. For the first time ever in the last four days, we saw the world experience +100,000 cases or more not just two days in a row, but rather, three days in a row and on 2020-05-023, we almost made it four days in a row. In terms of total cases, in the 15 days since we went over 4 million COVID-19 cases, we have added almost 1.4 million new cases to that total. We are on track to easily break 6 million COVID-19 cases by the end of May, 2020.

    *The grand total cases in the USA and therefore, also worldwide, for 2020-05-022, was revised downward by 195 cases during the day on 2020-05-023.

    The 7-day new cases average for last week: (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) was 88,760 cases per day, above the average from the week before.

    In terms of deaths: 343,608 total. In terms of daily deaths, the world suffered +4,183 daily deaths over the day before, making for a 1.23% growth rate (yesterday: 1.57%).

    The death rate decreased to 6.37%. The day before, it was 6.41%.

    The 7-day new deaths average average for last week (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) 4,684 deaths per day, below the average from the week before.

    The % of recovered people rose from 40.70% yesterday to 41.59%. The last time the recovereds were around the 40% mark was on 2020-03-017. The last time that the % of recovereds and the % of sick people were equal was on: 2020-03-014 (47.70% / 48.57%). A sign that at least this wave of the pandemic is ending is when the number of recovered people is around 85-90% and the number of people still sick is between 5-10%. This is the direction in which the world obviously wants to go.

    NEW: the country of Brazil has now been added to the excel table, between the USA and Russia:

    [​IMG]

    Coming soon: a major analysis of Brazil, separate from this daily analysis.


    The countries with the most new cases:
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 - new cases 001.png

    Currently, and unsurprisingly, the USA leads with the most new cases and has been doing so for a long time, however, the rankings directly under the USA have changed greatly over one month ago, now with Brasil, Russia, India, Peru and Chile 2nd-to-6th in the rankings. Yesterday first time ever that Chile entered into the top five rankings of new cases, a bad sign for the world's leading exporter of lithium. Today, Chile is 6th. Four of the world's top six nations in new cases are from the Americas.

    56
    countries had +100 or more new cases, closing in on 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 61. Of those 56, 17 countries had +1000 or more new cases; the day before, it was 15.

    The countries with the most new daily deaths:
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005 - new deaths 001.png

    The USA lead in deaths on 2020-05-023, followed by Brasil, Mexico and UK.

    9 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 8 the day before). 5 of those 9 countries are from the Americas.

    Total deaths per country, descending:
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 - total deaths 001.png
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 - total deaths 002.png

    There are TWENTY-FIVE nations with over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

    There are 68 nations with 100 total deaths or more. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Croatia (99) will soon join this statistic.

    New: Total Tests administered per country, descending:
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 - total cases 001.png


    12 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece. The USA has now performed 14.4 million tests, Russia has performed 8.4 million tests. Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, has only administered 735,000 tests. Just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia....

    And now, on to the more expansive listing:

    Total cases per country, descending (980 cases or above):
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases 001.png
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases 002.png
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases 003.png
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases 004.png


    There are now 107 nations in the "thousand club, with Mali and Venezuela having crossed the 1,000 line on 2020-05-023. Albania (989), Equatorial Guinea (960), Niger (943), Cyprus (927), Zambia (920) and Costa Rica (918 ) are up next to cross the 1,000 line in the next days. A little over one month ago, on 2020-04-019, I recorded 79 nations as being in the 1,000 club, so 38 more nations have crossed over the line since then. It was once possible to capture all the nations with 500+ cases in 4 screenshots, now it takes 4 screenshots just for all with +1,000 or more. Soon, I will have to move to 5 screenshots....

    Of those 107, 48 are in the "10,000 club. Currently with 9,998 cases, Afganistan will cross the line, most likely today. In the same report I referenced in the paragraph above, from 2020-04-019, there were 24 nations in the 10,000 club, so 24 nations have crossed over the 10,000 line since then.

    Further, 12 of those 46 are at 100,000 or more. Russia and Brasil are both now over 300,000. And in the same report I referenced in the two paragraphs above, from 2020-04-019, there were 6 nations in the 100,000 club, so 6 nations have crossed over the 100,000 line since then. Canada has now surpassed China's still-stand 82,000 and make it's way to 100,000 and above, but Chile and Mexico will likely get there before Canada or Saudi Arabia.

    The point I am making is: this is not all about the USA. Nations all over the world are being massively afflicted with the COVID-19 virus and some are in far worse shape to even begin to combat the pandemic.

    Facit: on 2020-05-023 world came over the 5.3 million mark and almost clinched the 5.4 million mark in the same day. Looking at the stats for 2020-05-024 already, I can tell you that we easily crossed over 5.4 million about 90 minutes after EOD on 2020-05-023; we may or may not sail over 5.5 million today. Historically, the number of worldwide new cases recedes on Sundays.

    Now at +98,700 deaths, the USA is marching easily toward well over 100,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of May, 2020, possibly as high as 130,000.

    The world-wide curve is verifiably logistical and on the very low end of the growth curve, which indicates a definite flattening. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2020
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  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    HERE the COVID-19 numbers for the day before, Friday, 2020-05-022 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0).

    And now the COVID-19 numbers for Saturday, 2020-05-023 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

    COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Saturday, 2020-05-023 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    *1,666,828*
    +21,929 cases today over the day before.
    98,683 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, -1,317 shy of the 100,000-mark.
    1,036 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
    446,914 people have recovered, 1,121,231 are, however, still sick.

    You can find confirmation of the statistics these reports at the WAYBACK MACHINE. Search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.

    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - excel table.png

    I screenshotted the table down to 2020-04-028 because the extrapolation at the bottom of this analysis. Very soon, that extrapolation will have run its course...

    The 7-day new cases average from last week (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) was 22,833 cases per day, under the average from the week before.

    The 7-day new deaths average from last week (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) was 1,456 deaths per day, slightly below the average from the week before.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total cases, descending:
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases 001.png
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases 002.png
    COVID-19 in the US Territories (unsorted):

    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases 003 - territories.png

    45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (952) is next up, but the new cases in the 5 smallest states are moving very slowly, an interesting phenomenon to watch, since all 5 are geographically far-flung states either at the edge of the US border to Canada or not even attached to the continental USA.

    29 of those 45 plus the cases from Veterans affairs (13,209) now have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 30, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 27. SC (9,895) and KS (8,946) are up next to join the 10,000 club. SC will probably cross over the 10,000 line today.

    The state of NY alone has more COVID-19 cases (369,656) than any other nation in the world except the USA itself, of which NY is of course a part. However, very soon, Brazil (347,398 )and/or Russia (335,882), which are both growing vastly more daily cases than NY these days, will surpass NY's numbers in the next week. Brazil will be there in 3 days or less.

    Are people even paying attention to Puerto Rico, Guam and the Virgin Islands?

    COVID-19 in the USA, by state, new daily cases, descending:
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases 001.png
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases 002.png


    4
    states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-023, this time with IL at well over +2,000 and CA, NY and MD well over +1,000 new COVID-19 positives. Also, 3 other states were over +800 new cases, among them, TX. Anyone who thinks this pandemic is fading away would be well-served to think again about this. We will soon be seeing hotspots in places where we did not expect them, or at least, this soon. Quite obviously, the hottest of the new hotspots is now in Chicago and environs.

    37 states reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 40 + DC.

    1 state reported no new cases: MT.

    COVID-19 in the USA, total tests administered, using the worldwide rankings:

    For seeing the number of tests over a much longer time-frame, go to the WAYBACK MACHINE link at the top of the report.

    [​IMG]

    Before 2020-05-022, something was not functioning right with administered test numbers. For the second time (on 2020-05-021), less total US tests were recorded as administered as the day before. That should not be possible. Until I can get some solid answers about this, I won't be reporting total comparisons, because I don't want to be publishing false information.

    On 2020-05-020, the website listed 14,117,870 tests as administered.
    For 2020-05-021, it said 13,439,114.
    That's -678,576 cases. The number should be a +, not a -.

    So, I will research...

    However, for 2020-05-022, we saw yesterday that the USA has now administered 13.9 million tests to date and that for 2020-05-023, it's 14.4 million, a jump of roughly 500,000 cases. Let's see if the numbers continue to march forward as they should...


    COVID-19 in the USA, by state, new daily deaths, descending:

    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths 001.png
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths 002.png

    I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

    1 state reported more than 100 daily deaths. The day before, it was 4. NY lead in the daily deaths this time, followed by NJ, PA and OH. This is the first time ever that Ohio has been up so high in the daily death rankings for the USA, not necessarily because the number of deaths in OH have jumped so dramatically, but rather, that the deaths from former hotspot states have receded - and I think that that is in and of itself a really important data-point. The daily deaths from those 4 states combined = 35.04% of all daily deaths in the USA from 2020-05-023. Yesterday, it was 39.12% from the top 4, which means that we jumped from 60% to 65% of the dying coming from somewhat smaller states and is therefore being more evenly spread throughout the Union, which is not exactly a positive sign, this could be indicative of a very, very long plateau. Just remember, about one month ago, NY alone was about 40% of all daily deaths in the USA. Just imagine only 800 deaths every day for the next 365 days: that's 292,000... on top of the misery we already have, sowe absolutely do not want a long-standing plateau.

    37 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 44. This has been historically so at the weekend, but pleasantly surprising that OR recorded no daily deaths.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total deaths, descending:
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - total deaths 001.png
    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - total deaths 002.png

    39 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. Currently at 97 deaths, UT will be next to cross over into that gruesome statistic.

    Of those 38, 18 states in the Union have a total of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths. In about 2 weeks, MN, NC and AZ are likely to join that unlucky club.

    With 29,112 total deaths at current, the state of NY has more deaths to mourn than every other COUNTRY on the Earth save the USA itself, UK and Italy. However, at the rate that Brazil is suddenly moving in the rankings, soon Brazil will have many, many more deaths to mourn than NY state.


    EXTRAPOLATION:

    On 2020-04-028, 26 days ago now including that day, over two postings, I extrapolated that if we "only" had +1,400 US deaths per day until the end of May, 2020, then we would reach over 103,000 dead Americans at that time, before the summer even begins. In the days since, on 18 of those 26 days, we came in over that "only". Here again the excel-table for this report; it goes back to that date:

    2020-05-023 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - excel table.png

    In a nutshell:

    Time frame = 26 days from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-023.

    1,400 * 26 = 36,400 extrapolated deaths.
    Actual deaths = 41,886
    Number of actual deaths over the extrapolation = 41,886-36,400 = 5,486 more deaths than originally extrapolated
    5,486 = the equivalent of 3 days (at an extrapolated 1,400 per day) +1,286 in reserve =1,400-1,286= 114.

    This means that were ZERO COVID-19 deaths to be reported in the USA for the next THREE days in a row including today (2020-05-024 through 026 - Sunday through Tuesday) and then, "only" +114 deaths were to be reported on 2020-05-027 (Wednesday), we would still be exactly on track to go well over 103,000 deaths in the USA at EOD on May 31st, which is 7 days after today, 8 days including today. Perversely enough, this is actually an improvement over the last many extrapolations, since we once again had a day (thank goodness) with well under 1,400 daily deaths and so instead of having 4 days plus part of a 5th day, we now have 3 days plus most of a 4th day.... but regardless, the simple math is still horrifyingly unassailable.

    On Saturday, 2020-05-023, we ended the day with 98,683 US deaths from COVID-19, putting us -1,317 from the 100,000 line right now, so even just +1,000 deaths per day gets us just under +107,000 at the end of May without even having to extrapolate anymore. When you consider that for the last two Sundays we came in at under +1,000 daily deaths in the USA (+865, +750) and when we consider that the highest daily death value this last week (to-date) was 1,552 on Tuesday as opposed to 1,772 the Wednesday before, I am very hopeful that the Sunday deaths in the USA (2020-05-024) will level at +700 today and hopefully not go much higher, so it's looking very much that by tomorrow, Memorial Day (2020-05-025), we will be at 100,000 US-American deaths from COVID-19. Originally, I thought that today (2020-05-024) would be the day, but thankfully, the overall wave of deaths was lower this week. However, the receding wave of deaths has come too late to help us in May.

    Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 100,000-106,500:

    [​IMG]

    Between Memorial Day and the end of the month of May, 2020, it will be as if one of those US-American cities was simply and for all eternity wiped-off the face of the world. Then maybe, just maybe for the naysayers and C19-deadenders out there, this **** will finally be real.

    Now, we could have a legitimate discussion about the psychology of going from a 5-digit figure to a 6-digit figure and then from a 6-digit figure to a 7-digit figure because really, what is the big difference between, say, 99,800 and 100,200? There's actually very little difference, but suddenly seeing a 6-digit figure makes this all appear to be suddenly larger and more menacing when in reality, it was large and menacing the entire time.

    Further, it is unreasonable to think that the deaths are simply going to stop just like turning off a spigot. Look at the current number of active (meaning: "still sick") cases in the USA: 1,121,231 (the day before, it was: 1,144,246). At least 2-3% of those cases are people who are in serious condition, decidedly closer to death than to life, so let's take 2.5% as the mean: 28,031. This is why the deaths won't simply stop all at once. But one day, they will and we will ALL rejoice and you will notice that the number of sick people in the USA dropped from 2020-05-022 to 2020-05-023, which is a great thing indeed.

    Let's see what Sunday brings. Happy Memorial Day weekend to all of you.


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2020
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  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    One way to look at this is: when low-information voters or political devotees only listen to their preferred sources and drink that koolaid that only "their side" is on the right side, then it's just a hop, skip and a jump away from doing things that hurt others because one suddenly feels entitled, because one thinks that he or she is better.

    Not just this person is bereft of moral fiber, but rather, every single whackadoodle preacher who has been screaming that this is all a hoax and that Jesus will save the true believers from any disease, also, certain politicians who are now calling the pandemic a hoax, usually, a "Democratic hoax" and that people should take off their masks, also the ugly souls behind the scenes organizing these astroturfed demonstrations where most of the angry mob does zero physical distancing and most don't wear masks (and those organizers stay nice and safe indoors, neee), to outlets like FOX or OAN that gin up anger about shelter-in-place restrictions and yes, to a totally unhinged President who cannot concentrate himself on anything for more than 5 minutes without demanding adulation and praise for his many and sundry ****ups, also touting a drug that is now showing itself to be very deadly, also first shunting all responsibility to the Governors, refusing to take responsibility for anything, to threatening said Governors when they don't do want he wants about full church services, because he wants to play to his "base". This toxic mix is totally FUBAR, imo.

    I think that all these things are major contributing factors in certain people acting like total morons and therefore, endangering others.

    However, we have a Republican Governor in North Dakota who gets it: he realizes that this is a public health issue, of life and death. Also, the Republican Governor of Arkansas appears to have gotten it as well. But way too many are not getting it, because the fish stinks from the head downward, as Germans like to say.

    Expect more idiots like this person to go out and infect other people. I really want 2019 back, and that year, frankly, sucked. But it is sooo much better than this year, to whit, to whit.
     
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  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    AHA.....
     
  24. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    I agree with your assessment of the politics and the state of the country.
    But you know, despite of all the sad and stupid happenings, there is still some fantastic stuff happening and to look forward and May 27 will be one of those.
    Himmelfahrt and if it were not for this crap, I would be in Florida.
     
  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    10...9...8...7...6...5...4...3..2..launch!!!
     
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