Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Find me a source for that 68% claim for new york. I haven't seen anything more than around 25%.

 

How will you ever trust another doctor? You believe thousands and thousands of medical personnel around the world are conspiring with the government for some huge over-reach plot.

If you have a stroke, will you call it fake news? Or will you call it dribb...lee, dribble.. dockrs scks. sdriglle drilg.ble. c ?

 

Well so much for my irrational exuberance.
We popped back up into the mid 7's in positives.


The good news is California had another day in the 3's.

Arizona also down, but of course still high overall.

Florida has shaved a few points with their changes, but haven't seen the bigger moves that other state have from closing down bars etc..


Hopefully the spike in Texas is just from the switchover in their computer system.

 

This is just my thinking, but I think Trump got afraid that politically he needed to get the economy started again and got some Republican Governors on board even though they knew they couldn't meet all the guidelines. Once they bought into his scam they were loath to reverse course so they waited to long. The real question now is can they beat it back without another full shutdown. I say this based mostly on California. They clamped down on LA well before their overall numbers went south and it looks like it may have worked. But I'll say one thing. If they continue to follow him into the woods it could get ugly because even the lower populated states don't have enough testing and tracking to do anything if they get to many cases. I really worry about the schools. If you open them in a hotspot it's gonna go wild.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There was 1 important analysis between the last worldwide analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-003, posted 2020-08-004, 08:56, GMT +2, #11713.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Tuesday, 2020-08-004 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍******** 18,692,376 ********֍
+256,944 new C19 cases over the day before & the largest Tuesday C19-haul to-date.
There are 145 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
The world will go over 19 million C19 cases on 2020-08-006.
The USA and India will go over 5 million and 2 million cases, respectively, on 2020-08-006.
There have now been 703,381 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,558 of them were on this day.
Brazil will pass 100,000 total deaths within this week, likely by Thursday or Friday.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +258,323 new C19 cases per day and +5,843 deaths per day.
1,394 Brazilian, 1,361 US-American, 849 Indian, 345 S. African, 298 Colombian & 286 Mexican deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In a nutshell: until now, the daily case rolling average was rising, it receded somewhat on 2020-08-003 and moved upward again on 2020-08-004. The daily death rolling average has continually (with a few exceptions) rising and continued to do so as well on 2020-08-004.

The number of daily deaths (6,558) for the day currently being analysed was larger than all four of the Tuesdays before.

A new worldwide death extrapolation will come out on Thursday.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were no nation-rubrik-jumps on this day.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +400 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

After having joined the rankings of nations with more than +10,000 new C19 cases in one day for 3 days in a row, Colombia came in under the +10,000-mark on the 4th day.

On 2020-08-003 I highlighted Spain and Japan in red. Very disturbing in both cases. On 2020-08-004, Spain is again on the +1,000-list, this time, much higher. It is looking like a huge flare-up in Spain right now.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 160,290 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.79% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.81%). A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil is currently at 96,096 total deaths, putting it -3,904 from the 100,000-death line and at rank 2 among the C19 dead.

An extrapolation average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 would have gotten Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. Of course, that date has now come and gone. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,066. On 2020-06-024, Brasil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +42,222 deaths since then. It is on track to reach 100,000 deaths on 2020-08-007, 2020-08-008 at the very latest, putting it's arrival at the 100,000-death mark exactly between the two extrapolation averages I provided.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,066 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,139 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. It's likely to stay that way for a while. It's also only a matter of time until India joins that miserable statistic.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

41 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with the Netherlands having gone over the 1,000,000-test-line on 2020-08-004; of those 41, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. At 8 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. The USA has performed 61.6 million tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 29.2 million tests (200,000 thousand more than the day before). India has completed 20.9 million such tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before). The UK has performed 16.9 million such tests (200,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.2 million such tests (no change over the day before).

Facit: on 2020-08-004, the travelled from 18.44 million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 18.5 and 18.6 million to land at 18.69 million cases.


-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT
There was 1 important analysis between the last USA analysis and this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-004, posted 2020-08-005, 08:30 GMT +2, #11756

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Tuesday, 2020-08-004 (EOD = GMT +0):

****4,918,420****
The USA is on track to go over 5,000,000 total C19 cases on Thursday, 2020-08-006.
+56,247 new COVID-19 cases, definite case-reduction over the Tuesday before.
FLORIDA is -2,670 away from 500,000 total C19 cases. It will go over 500,000 cases today, 2020-08-005.
There are now 160,290 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,361 of them were recorded on this day.
USA weekly average = 60,011 new infections & 1,139 deaths per day.
2,481,680 are recovered (over 50%) / 2,276,450 are still sick, 18,407 of them are in critical condition.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Less text.... more meaning. The USA sailed over the 4-million mark on 2020-07-021, and 14 days later, we are over 4.9 million already.

There is a verifiable reduction in the average daily new C19 cases and until 2020-08-004, there was a verifiable increase in daily deaths. On 2020-08-004, the daily average deaths also decreased, but only because of a huge Tuesday death number the week before that fell out of the statistic and was replaced by this Tuesday's death toll. It now remains to be seen what the rest of this week brings. I personally want to see the daily average death toll to approach ZERO as quickly as possible, but there are wishes and then there is reality. And this thread deals with facts and realities.

The actual number of daily deaths, +1,361, is less than the Tuesday before but significantly more than the 3 Tuesdays before that.

In a nutshell: average daily cases are currently decreasing but at the same time, average daily deaths are generally increasing, meaning that the lagging factor (deaths) is now *verifiably* in full swing. I do not expect this average to drop for a good while, because the far less deaths (well under +1,000) that occur on Saturdays and Sundays are ALREADY in the average.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was 1 unit/rubrik change, in total cases: CT

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Almost all of the text below this point will have disappeared - *poof* *gone*!

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

Just to get some perspective: Worldwide, there are currently 45 nations with over +50,000 confirmed C19 cases, with the USA as a whole having almost 10 times as many cases as that baseline number. But in the USA alone, 27 states have over +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. Now, before you read on, take a minute and think about that data-point.​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

Ohio is back on the +1,000-list.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 160,290 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of CARY, never to get it back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the milestones:

-200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).

-Almost 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.

-250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).

-286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that currently, we are +143 deaths over the extrapolation.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Here you and I (among many other sensible people here in PF) have been very consistent: any gathering - especially but not limited to indoors - that does not allow for physical distancing, even with masks on, is a really, really bad idea. That goes from the whackadoodle Right-Wing protests, for instance the ones in Michigan where people threatened to kill the Governor of the state, to the BLM protesters who also did not keep physical distance. Of course, the unmarked cops who literally herded those people into closer and closer spaces in order to terrorize them with tear gas and rubber pellets AT THE INSTRUCTION OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION and such are then also guilty of endangerment. I would strongly recommend against any kind of live political rally at all. Pro sports-teams, even the ones in the super-duper, magically safe (lol) Orlando bubble are learning that teams are going to get infected, over and over and over again. Large orchestra concerts, even outdoors? Forget it.

The point is (and I believe that you and I are uniform on this): the virus doesn't care about out politics or love of sporting or arts events.

And above all else, those who refuse to wear masks in public are endangering all of us. They are also hurting the economy, because the longer we stay in this ****ed-up, half shut down but not really shut-down limbo, the longer it will take to clean the system, oil the injectors and get this all going again. So, the anti-maskers aren't just endangering out health, they are also endangering everyones' livelihoods. So, right now, I couldn't care less about their sudden desire to protect their 1A rights. How about my right to live and not get infected by some ****ing, drooling-at-the-mouth idiot? How about my right to protect my daughter from such idiots?

Sad to say, but the COVID-19 pandemic has in many cases brought out the worst in people who always had this "worst" deep inside of them. You can't fix stupid. You can fix mean or vindictive. All you can do is combat it.

And finally, we have seen all of this happen before. It happened late in 1918, before the second wave hit. The anti-maskers made peoples' lives hell back then as well.

Spit.

 

THIS IS SPOT-ON:

 

TX: yes, that it likely the case.

Thinking positively is never a bad thing.

 

Well, if they are doing it, then they are working overtime to guarantee the landslide of the century for the Democratic-ticket, because polling is showing that Independent voters have simply had their fill of this crap from Trump. Stick a fork in him, he is done among Independents.

Biden is leading by almost +40 in California, a state that Obama won by +23 and +24 respectively, Clinton won it by +30 (+4,000,000 votes). A +40% in California means just a little over +6,000,000 raw vote margin in that state alone.

How is Biden getting there: 73% of Independents in California have absolutely had it with Trump. Biden is landsliding in every age group, by +47 among women, in every geography of the state - including the inland counties, among all socio-economic classes. This has important downballot implications for the 7 (count them, all of 7) remaining HOR seats that are in Republican hands, 5 of which were won by well under +10 in 2018.

Now, California is already a very left-leaning state with a sizeable D to R VR margin, but still, no one was expecting a +40 for a D nominee to be showing up here. And if Biden is at +40 here and Trump is really only at +2 in, of all places, Arkansas, then imagine what is happening in the rest of the country right now.

The last time we saw such a monumental shift not only in the numbers, but also in the demographics behind the numbers was: 1980, Reagan (challenger) vs. Carter (incumbent). And the shifts are coming right around the same time as they came for Reagan, maybe 3 weeks earlier, tops.

And there is now absolutely no doubt in my mind that COVID-19 is the driving factor behind the entire election, because the terrible mishandling of C19 is also hammering the economy even more. The economy shrunk 11 points in Q2, which, when you stretch out the trend over the year, comes to a 33% shrinkage. I can guarantee you that Q3 is going to be even worse, because of the domino effect of the industries and small businesses already lost and then the fact that COVID-19 keeps knocking the hell out of our economic chances of getting back on our feet.

 

Something was very odd about yesterday's New Cases because it looks like several South American nations were joining Spain and Japan and they ended up pushing down Mexico, Russia and South Africa from the top rankings.

It is possible that those 3 nations just under reported but the surge in Columbia might be spreading to Argentina and Peru.

I would prefer the former to the latter because we do NOT need MORE hotspots globally.

 

Continuing the point about reopening schools and a potential 3rd wave/surge this was recently posted on Twitter about a school that reopened in GA.

https://twitter.com/TheTraceC/status/1290681849220665345



Party time for Covid19?

 

The school openings are a major concern for my employees, some are scared and will not send the kids to school.
Every Saturday we have 2 groups demonstrating, 1 a church group for BLM and a 2 Tea Party-Trump with vehicles full of Confed Flags, Tea Party Flags, Stars and Stripes and Trump Flags.
Last Saturday Demolition Derby at Fair Grounds race track, packed with group #2, bleachers full, no masks, flags and anti BLM signs and so on and so on. We are in trouble.
They will send their kids to school, with that attitude.

Oh well..............................

 

https://durangoherald.com/articles/...g-hits-political-messages-in-montezuma-county

 

It was in Queens, weeks ago maybe a month or more.

 

My father was a doctor. I trust doctors.

I do not trust bureaucrats, and I do understand that doctors are mere mortals like you and me.

Sadly, there are many examples of doctors accepting money and benefits to write and say things that are false. If you are familiar with the scam of the opioid events, that is a perfect example of doctors writing and saying things that were false.

 

One small point of contention: Only the NBA has been in Orlando and yeah, they really have been successful in managing the bubble. NHL has its own separate bubble in Canada, now I'm not a hockey guy like I am basketball but I haven't heard anything. MLB's a dumpster fire and honestly I don't see the NFL playing either. Long story short: In the NBA and NHL there're positive vibes. MLB and NFL are in a more precarious situation.

I think that what the NBA is doing is really smart. We may not be able to monitor a whole country but it might be possible to monitor small groups of people

 

The bubble is a great idea, but you're asking all those people to separate themselves from their families for months. This is tough.

I agree about NFL - too many players have already said, "No, not going to."

Dumpster fire is the only way to describe MLB. Sheesh.

 

That was your answer to the question "Why have the number of deaths been well above average since March? Lots of extra people falling off cliffs since March?"

 

Link? Source? Data?

 

Way cool, you gota love this Dotore, El Principal.

 

Well, we popped back up.

Texas went nuts, but not many tests. So maybe still a computer hangover.

Of course I put the hex on California so they went up a bit.

Arizona going in the right direction.

Florida carries on.

And Georgia.

Testing has come down a bit.

 

The drop in testing is concerning. I have not seen such a steady and sharp decline in the number of tests before and I wonder if it is a reporting issue or a lack of regents maybe?

 

It's really just proof that we have had less positive tests. It's a good thing. I think? Perhaps. .... someone fact check me on that.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There was 1 important analysis between the last worldwide analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-004, posted 2020-08-005, 08:50 GMT +2, #11757.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Wednesday, 2020-08-005 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍******** 18,965,479 ********֍
+273,103 new C19 cases over the day before.
There are 146 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
The world will go over 19 million C19 cases today, 2020-08-006.
The USA and India will go over 5 million and 2 million cases -respectively- today, 2020-08-006.
There have now been 710,287 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,906 of them were on this day.
Brazil will pass 100,000 total deaths within this week, likely by Friday or Saturday.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +255,417 new C19 cases per day and +5,816 deaths per day.
1,322 Brazilian, 1,311 US-American, 919 Indian, 857 Mexican, 414 S. African and 309 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In a nutshell: right now, both daily rolling statistics are slightly receding. It really could be that 2020-07-030 was the peak of this new curve within the first wave. In the next days, we will see if this is a trend, or an outlier.

The number of daily deaths (6,906) for the day currently being analysed was larger than two of the four of the Wednesdays before, placing it in the middle of all 5 Wednesdays.

A new worldwide death extrapolation will come out on Thursday.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was 1 nation-rubrik-jump on this day: Togo

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +250 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

After having joined the rankings of nations with more than +10,000 new C19 cases in one day for 3 days in a row, Colombia came in under the +10,000-mark on the 4th day and rejoined the 10,000-mark on 2020-08-005.

The nations over +1,000 highlighted in red are European nations where the 1st wave was thought to have come and gone. Though the number of daily deaths is very low, alone the reality that 3 of these nations (Germany was never really hit hard in terms of deaths) are back on the list is very disturbing. Not on the 1,000-list: UK and Italy.

The nations over +1,000 highlighted in yellow are nations that are appearing on the 1,000-list for the first or second time: Morocco, Japan, Ghana​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 161,601 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.75% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.81%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.8%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil is currently at 97,418 total deaths, putting it -2,582 from the 100,000-death line and at rank 2 among the C19 dead.

An extrapolation average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 would have gotten Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. Of course, that date has now come and gone. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,032. On 2020-06-024, Brazil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +43,544 deaths (just under the total deaths for the UK until now....) since then. It is on track to likely reach 100,000 deaths on Saturday, 2020-08-008, or Sunday 2020-08-009 at the very latest, putting it's arrival at the 100,000-death mark exactly between the two extrapolation averages I provided. If Brazil hits +1,300 deaths today and tomorrow, then it will go over 100,000 tomorrow, but I sense that that is unlikely. Wait and see.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,032 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,109 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. It's now been 9 days since reaching that milestone and we still have 2 nations on the Earth averaging over +1,000 deaths per day. Further, it's likely to stay that way for a while. It's also only a matter of time until India joins that miserable statistic.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

41 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with the Netherlands having gone over the 1,000,000-test-line on 2020-08-004; of those 41, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. At 8 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. The USA has performed 62.4 million tests (800,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 29.4 million tests (200,000 thousand more than the day before). India has completed 21.5 million such tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before). The UK has performed 17.2 million such tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.3 million such tests (100,000 thousand more than the day before).

Facit: on 2020-08-005, the travelled from 18.69 million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 18.7, 18.8 and 18.9 million to land at 18.97 million cases. Early in the day on 2020-08-006, the world will sail over 19 million cases and at the end of the day, will land somewhere around 19.22-19.23 million, maybe more.


-Stat