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TRUMP(244) vs Hillary(217) Electoral votes situation in Dec,2015

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by StatesPollcom, Dec 26, 2015.

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  1. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    No. Just no. Or, are you making a satirical joke at my expense. Predictwise uses polling by the Huffington Post. Huffington Post is partisan agenda at its finest. The data was compiled by Betfair, a European sports booking agency. Do you understand that sports booking is designed to skew betting odds to maximize the amount of betting? Do you realize that the data from Betfair is designed to elicit betting from European customers and reflect the biases and desires of people who are not going to even vote in this election? How can this site be taken seriously as "experts without partisan agenda" to compute such probabilities? Simple answer, it can't.

    Paddy power is an Irish online betting site and is not to be taken seriously either for reason listed above.

    Do you have anything that uses real data?
     
    Lee S, Dec 28, 2015
    #51
  2. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    I was simply pointing out the media landscape; one that you apparently have an unrealistic view of.
     
    Lil Mike, Dec 28, 2015
    #52
  3. TomFitz

    TomFitz Well-Known Member

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    It called the last US election. So much for your assertion!
     
    TomFitz, Dec 28, 2015
    #53
  4. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Can you substantiate your claim? PredictWise represents the reasearch of David M Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, a fellow at the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia and the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies (who correctly predicted 50 of 51 Electoral College outcomes in February of 2012.)

    Why do you believe that he relies on Huffington Post data?

    If you have any predictions from alternative oddsmakers that accommodate your partisan wishes, I'd be happy to take a look at them.
     
    Natty Bumpo, Dec 28, 2015
    #54
  5. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    If by "unrealistic" you mean "realistic", you've nailed it.

    Corporate, profit-minded capitalists cannot afford to indulge in partisan caprices, and notions of a vast media conspiracy are laughable.
     
    Natty Bumpo, Dec 28, 2015
    #55
  6. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/

    Because the Predictwise website says as much. Did you not click on the links to your own source? Apparently not.

    - - - Updated - - -

    It called no such thing. It simply provided odds for betting.
     
    Lee S, Dec 28, 2015
    #56
  7. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    No one claimed there was any conspiracy. Where did you pull that one out of?
     
    Lil Mike, Dec 28, 2015
    #57
  8. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    As I suspected, you are upset because HuffPost is but one amongst the multiple sources he assesses (with an impressive record of accuracy.)

    Again, do you have any oddsmakers whose predictions for the '16 presidential election fit your personal partisan wishes, or do you find they all predict a Democratic victory?
     
    Natty Bumpo, Dec 28, 2015
    #58
  9. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    No. You did not suspect anything. You were actualy surprised that the Huffington Post was one of the sources used by Predictwise as you indicated by Post No. 54. You didn't realize the the Huffington Post was used as a primary source until I pointed it out to you.

    I don't have any oddsmakers that I look to for predictions. I do not use a crystal ball, a soothsayer, a palmreader, a psychic, nor a Ouija Board either for that matter. Oddsmakers are not the best of prognosticators. They simply look at the money that is being bet and adjust the odds to ensure they will make a profit. And really, who bets on political elections? I guess there are some countries so devoid of anything gainful to do that they run out of things to bet on. Hobbies, entertainment, arts, books, theater, and philanthropic interests would be a better use of one's time.
     
    Lee S, Dec 28, 2015
    #59
  10. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Some paranoids fantasize that there is a sinister, powerful, coordinated "main stream media" conspiring against them when those corporate-minded capitalists actually compete in their respective pursuits of profit that result in the wide spectrum of perspectives available that the right of free speech facilitates.

    I have provided a partial list of rightist-oriented media sources of which all Americans can readily avail themselves if so disposed.
     
    Natty Bumpo, Dec 28, 2015
    #60
  11. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    I asked why "Why do you believe that he relies on Huffington Post data?" I had assumed that he incorporated a wide range of data sources into forming his accurate predictions, but had not sought to identify every one of them. Such composite evaluations are weighted in ways that are seldom explained in detail. I'm sure he'd tell you that he does notrely on any one of them.

    I consult the ones that have an impressive track record, but in 2012, relied heavily upon Nate Silver and 538 who proved to be spot-on. Having become accustomed to his comprehensive, objective approach, I was surprised that incredibly wishful thinking would lead GOP promoters to actually predict a Romney Landslide! on the eve of the election.

    What were they thinking?
     
    Natty Bumpo, Dec 28, 2015
    #61
  12. JakeJ

    JakeJ Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    As less and less people believe the media, there is a question whether the media and press can force enough people to put Hillary into the White House. She is a ridiculous candidate.
     
    JakeJ, Dec 28, 2015
    #62
  13. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Who are these "paranoids?"
     
    Lil Mike, Dec 28, 2015
    #63
  14. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Wait....I thought Obama was supposed to crown himself emperor, declare Sharia law, and fly off to his Fortress of Gay Solitude in Kenya, and now you folks are talking like there is really going to be an election. This site is so confusing some times.
     
    Deckel, Dec 28, 2015
    #64
  15. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Whoever rails against the "mainstream media" as if it were not the diverse, profit-driven, free-market field of endeavour that is for those who compete with one another in it, but some amorphous, unified, hyper-partisan force that conspires against him.

    I don't maintain lists.

    To do so would be spooky.
     
    Natty Bumpo, Dec 28, 2015
    #65
  16. Sadanie

    Sadanie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You forgot take all our guns!!! :wink:
     
    Sadanie, Dec 28, 2015
    #66
  17. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    I know of only one individual who predicted a Romney landslide and that was former Bill Clinton political advisor Dick Morris and that prediction was made roughly a month prior to the election, not on the eve of the election. All polls showed an Obama victory on the eve of the election and every national poll successfully predicted the outcome within a tenth of a percentage point, more or less.

    Of course if you have a link to those who predicted a Romney landslide on the eve of the election, I would be glad to acknowledge them.
     
    Lee S, Dec 28, 2015
    #67
  18. Sadanie

    Sadanie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Maybe you were asleep In November 2012? Here is a refresher:

    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...ggest-names-predicting-it-how-it-will-happen/
     
    Sadanie, Dec 28, 2015
    #68
  19. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    So...people who disagree with you! Ha!
     
    Lil Mike, Dec 28, 2015
    #69
  20. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    Perhaps you didn't read and comprehend my statement. Natty Bumpo made a statement regarding all those people who predicted a Romney landslide on the eve of the election. To my knowledge, Karl Rove and Dick Morris were the only two individuals who predicted a landslide and only Karl Rove predicted it on the eve of the election. Karl Rove is not "all those people. Most intelligent individuals would admit that all those people refers to a plural number and Karl Rove is singular (at least we hope and pray he is). Your link shows a number of people who predicted a Romney victory by a few percentage points which is hardly a landslide or made predictions prior to election eve.

    So like I said before, if there is a link to a source with a list of names (plural) of people who predicted a Romney landslide on election eve, please provide it.
     
    Lee S, Dec 28, 2015
    #70
  21. TomFitz

    TomFitz Well-Known Member

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    And put all the right wingers in FEMA concentration camps!

    There's plenty more, but it's too ridiculous to list it all!
     
    TomFitz, Dec 30, 2015
    #71
  22. TomFitz

    TomFitz Well-Known Member

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    Well, you obviously didn't bother to read Sandine's link, did you? Because there was list in that link,

    Incidentally, it left out Rasmussen and Wing Nut Daily. A lot of right wingers predicted a Romney landslide.

    I'll let Glen Beck remind you!

    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...ggest-names-predicting-it-how-it-will-happen/

    I doubt that too many of these people actually believed it. We know that the imfamous Rove "meltdown" on Fox was staged to promote Roger Ailes' rising star Meghn Kelley.

    Right wing media consistantly claimed that the 2008 election was "too close to call", right up to the moment it was called. Fox was telling its audience that McCain had a chance as late as the time the polls started closing on election day. I vividly recall stopping in a local bar that evening, and watching the right wing audience rivited to Fox on TV telling them that.

    After that election, the media divided even more. Conservatives retreated into an echo chamber of validation and propoganda. Right wing blogs fed right wing paranoia with a steady diet of fear mongering and made up nonsense (FEMA concentration camps, the feds buying all the ammunition, smart meters, Jade Helm), and stories designed to stoke white racial resentment(the ongoing promotion of the "birthers", the Shirley Sherrod smear). By 2012, the landscape conseravative media presented to its audience was fairly well detached from reality. So, they parroted dubious predictions of a Romney victory to give the right wing blogs and the AM talk radio shows an illusion to feed their audiences. All the players know that the facts would only make the viewers mad, so they concentrated on validation.

    The far right bought it too. You could see it in the posts on this forum.
     
    TomFitz, Dec 30, 2015
    #72
  23. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I put this together at the end of September, I haven't seen much of a change between then and now especially if the match up is Trump vs. Hillary. We differ, so come November of next year we will see who comes the closest.

    Since the presidency is decided in the Electoral College, here is how the states stand up today. The below listed states are going to go to the Democratic Candidate no matter what: 186 Electoral votes.
    California (55)
    Connecticut (7)
    Delaware (3)
    District of Columbia (3)
    Hawaii (4)
    Illinois (20)
    Maine-AL (2)
    Maine-01 (1)
    Maine-02 (1)
    Maryland (10)
    Massachusetts (11)
    New Jersey (14)
    New York (29)
    Oregon (7)
    Rhode Island (4)
    Vermont (3)
    Washington (12)

    There is a 90% plus chance these states will go Democratic: 15 Electoral votes.
    Minnesota (10)
    New Mexico (5)

    These states stand a 65% or better chance of going to the Democratic nominee: 46 Electoral votes:
    Michigan (16)
    Pennsylvania (20)
    Wisconsin (10)
    That totals up to 201 Electoral votes that are pretty much set in stone for the Democrats. Add 65% or better states you have a total of 247 electoral votes. But on the Republican side they have their states also where hell would freeze over before they lost that state in 2016. These are known as Solid Republican States: 164 Electoral Votes
    Alabama (9)
    Alaska (3)
    Arkansas (6)
    Idaho (4)
    Indiana (11)
    Kansas (6)
    Kentucky (8)
    Louisiana (8)
    Mississippi (6)
    Missouri (10)
    Montana (3)
    Nebraska-AL (2)
    Nebraska-01 (1)
    Nebraska-02 (1)
    Nebraska-03 (1)
    North Dakota (3)
    Oklahoma (7)
    South Carolina (9)
    South Dakota (3)
    Tennessee (11)
    Texas (38)
    Utah (6)
    West Virginia (5)
    Wyoming (3)

    These states fall into the 90% plus factor for them going Republican in 2016.
    Arizona (11)
    Georgia (16)

    That ends the Republican states with a total of 191 Electoral votes.

    The following states are what we call swing states or tossup states which either party can win and in reality are the only contested states for 2016. They total 100 Electoral votes:
    Colorado (9)
    Florida (29)
    Iowa (6)
    Nevada (6)
    New Hampshire (4)
    North Carolina (15)
    Ohio (18)
    Virginia (13)

    To have a shot at winning the presidency the Republican candidate, whomever he is must win Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. There are no exceptions to this. If the GOP accomplished this their total would add up to 253 leaving them 17 electoral votes shy. But Clinton will probably carry Virginia, it has become increasing blue over the last decade with all the D.C. folks moving into that state and New Hampshire has only gone for a Republican Presidential candidate once in the last six presidential elections. Look for Clinton to carry these states to bring her total to 264. That is but six electoral votes shy of a win. This means the Republican candidate must carry the remaining three states, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. The odds are high against it. But there is a long way to go, things change. So we shall see. But it will be easier to the GOP candidate to win the popular vote than the Electoral College.
     
    perotista, Dec 30, 2015
    #73
  24. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    I didn't read Sandine's link because I read the article just yesterday when I researched Natty Bumpo's claim that many people claimed a Romney landslide on the eve of the election. In post Number 70, I even italicized the words 'eve' and 'landslide'. Now if you read Sandine's link carefully, you will see no one on the list predicting a Romney landslide on the eve of the election. You will see some dummies predicting a Romney landslide as late as October 25th but no one on Sandine's link predicted a landslide on the eve of the election. Furthermore, you can see some dummies predict a Romney victory, not a landslide but a simple victory, on the eve of the election. So we are still at the same place we were with Natty Bumpo's original claim. There was nobody who claimed a Romney landslide on the eve of the election and Natty Bumpo has been unwilling to provide a link to support that claim.

    Given that Natty Bumpo has always been reluctant to let anyone have the last word (let's look at that as persistence and therefore a virtue) on any subject, the fact that he has yet to fire off a link should tell you the futility of finding a link that supports his claim.

    I have no idea who the Wing Nut Daily is so I cannot speak to their claims, if they even made any such claims, but Rasmussen reports had predictions in line with everyone else on the eve of the election and macthed the Real Clear Politics aggregate poll within 0.8%. Rasmussen had the election even with Obama winning swing states and taking the election in the electoral college.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

    Apparently not because you didn't provide any links. Look, I have already showed that Natty Bumpo's original claims were nothing more than a well accepted urban myth amongst the leftists, Sandine reinforced the depth and acceptance of the myth. Forgive me if I do not believe you without that whole proof thingy.
     
    Lee S, Dec 30, 2015
    #74
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