There were 11 polls in March. In two of them she was up 6 and 7%, in the remaining 9 polls she was ahead by 9-18 points, the overwhelming majority was 11-12%. These numbers continued during the first half of April. After Trump's NE sweep the picture has changed drastically, it's virtually all single digit and Hillary is up 3 and 7 points in a couple, up 11% in one and down 2% in today's poll. There is no question that she went from double digits to single digit lead at best. Her average margin after April 15 is bellow 5% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
The voice of reason. My thoughts exactly. I put ZERO faith in Rasmussen's methodology. What's next from Rasmussen? A poll showing Trump beating Hillary in DC?
Oh totally. Carrying the LGBT community by 90-10 over Hillary. Winning Hispanics 95-5. I am surprised. Rasmussen hasn't released this breaking news. It should be a bolded headline on Breitbart by now.
Of course you do, it has wall street Hillary behind, get used to it becasue it's going to get much worst in the upcoming months.
what? the LGBT community don't need Jobs and a America that works for everyone, not just wall street?, don't sell anyone short including Hispanic, Trump will be out there fighting for all Americans, by posting crap like that, your the one who sounds bigoted and racist. I hope you just misspoke your better then this.
Nate Silver rates him the 3rd best in the nation: And he weighs them twice as high as Gallup when he aggregates polling http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pollster-ratings-updated/
That ranking is from March 2008. Here are the latest rankings: http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/ Rasmussen gets a C, and has an average GOP lean of 2.3 percentage points.
Rasmussen isn't that bad. I mean, it's weird because normally its leftists who doubt it, saying it has a conservative bias, but they obviously haven't been paying attention to it's Presidential approval numbers. Each time I checked over the last couple years, Rasmussen had the highest approval numbers for Obama. It's a right wing conspiracy? haha Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2004, 2008, and 2010 elections. It goofed up on 2012, not because of active bias but because its landline polling had by that point become just that outdated (and cell phone users were far less likely to vote in 2010), and suddenly its as if Rasmussen is a partisan polling agency. Rasmussen is good, they're fairly reliable, there isn't any good reason to scoff at Rasmussen.
They're middle of the pack these days. Not a reason to ignore them, but certainly not a reason to cherry-pick them and ignore the polling average. Citing individual polls like this is a fool's game.
Well if citing individual polls like this is a fools game, I did just mention that there were two such recent polls. Rasmussen had them tied just a few days ago, and now with Trump leading by 2. Which doesn't seem quite so extraordinary since Clinton's lead has fallen from a consistent double digit lead to the point where, in the last few weeks, two agencies had her ahead by 7, and one by only 3. Again, as I already said, I'm skeptical that they actually are neck and neck, since there can be multiple outliers, but the race does appear to be tightening already. And you can expect it to continue to tighten.
Polls themselves are increasingly inaccurate. Most of these are done over the phone and the response rate is typically around 8%. Given that low of a percentage of responders, it's assumed to be "random" sample of likely voters. Actually it's a sample of those more inclined to be willing to give a response is all it is. It's not a sample of the aggregate whole of likely voters. To do a proper survey is expensive, and most polls don't do this.
Well then if Trump leads by 2 and 538 would adjust it +2 toward the Democrat then they are tied, and given the margin of error, that is essentially the finding of the poll. Five Thirty Eight might have blown Indiana. They predicted Hillary winning by 11 and right now she is trailing by 6 with 56% of the vote in.
any poll that shows Kasich beating hillary in November should start once upon a time. That is coming from a guy who had a Kasich sign in his front yard. He would make a good VP although my gut tells me that Gingrich, Martinez or Sessions will get that spot. But Ray you have been watching this stuff long enough to know that hypothetical polls six months out are not worth the paper they are printed on
How about that most recent Indiana poll !! The primary yesterday !! Hillary is clearly continuing to drop. RCP average had her up almost 7 in Indiana. But more importantly, never had her trailing. Yet she then loses by 5. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ana_democratic_presidential_primary-5807.html That Hillary is dropping is no longer the stuff of inaccurate polls. She is dropping. That means that anyone who is opposing her, whether Bernie in the primary, or Trump in the General, would benefit.
*Shrug*. They show the state of the comparison right now. But it's so far out it's not predictive of the final outcome. You have to account for all sorts of factors, like the fact that neither Clinton nor Trump have gone after each other very hard. Most of Trump's most odious statements didn't hurt him in the primaries, but they will hurt him in the general. My main point is that cherry picking a single poll, especially from a middling pollster with a strong GOP lean, is silly. Watch the polling average; everything else is spin.
I was comparing polls to actual results. She is grossly underachieving her poll numbers. And she is in free-fall.
Rasmussen was totally wrong about. Romney. I saw Hillary up by 13% this morning. The DNC hasn't even launched their Trump scandal sheet yet.
Lets see the area of a circle is 3.14159 x radius x radius so the 10 inch diameter pie would be have an area of 78.5 and the 5 inch diameter pie would have an area of 19.6. So if you divde the ten inch pie into ten pieces each piece would be 7.85 and if you divide the 5 inch into two pieces each piece would be 9.8. By my calculations you certainly do play with numbers but you don't play well with actual math. Well, I just figured it out. You don't know the difference between diameter and radius.
