United States First Quarter Contraction.

From the impeccable Financial Times:

https://www.ft.com/content/06493320-083a-4a7d-94cc-8db581f9ed03

"The US economy shrank in the first quarter by its fastest rate since the 2008 financial crisis, ending the longest expansion on record as lockdowns aimed at curbing the coronavirus pandemic choked off economic activity. Gross domestic product, or the value of all goods and services produced by the economy, shrank at an 4.8 per cent annualised rate in the first three months of the year, according to the preliminary estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis published on Wednesday. That marked the steepest drop since the 8.4 per cent contraction at the end of 2008 and compared with economists’ forecasts for a narrower 4 per cent decline in output."

Very interesting chain of events prior to COVID-19 that was exacerbated by necessary measures to combat the virus.

 

the next quarter will be worse. Trump will finish in November with high unemployment and a record national debt.

 

Yes.

 

You hope.

 

Nope. Absolutely hope for a quick recovery.
But the economy isn't like a light switch, so it's going to take time. Most likely, Trump will be facing
very bad economic numbers in November. Just a statement of what is very likely.

Trump had a silver spoon economy up to this point. Now we get to see how he handles a crisis. If it were
his own business, he would declare bankruptcy and walk away.

 

Uh huh.
Assume for the moment Trump "handles the crisis" and the economy in October, by every metric, is as good or better than it was in January
Will you give Trump credit?
Will you argue against those who do not?
Will you vote for him?

 

I would give Trump credit for that robust of an economy, but I also hope he focuses on saving lives of workers and common citizens. I would not vote for him for other reasons.

 

Seems likely to me as well.

The question is: are people going to blame Trump for it or are they going to blame the virus?

So far, it seems to me we'd be in alot worse shape if HillaBush or Creepy Uncle Gaff had been at the helm trying to manage the economy during an outbreak.

 

99.9% of those who blame him vote (D).
Never let a crisis go to waste, they like to say.

 

Evidence?

 

But, but Hillary!

 

Evidence of what?

 

Lol

 

That is not a real question.

 

1/2 of the drop is from medical care with the elimination of elective surgery and outpatient care.

 

Virtually all of the drop is CV-19 related.

 

I dunno what you're asking for evidence of...

How's this for a 'real question'- What are you asking me for evidence of?

 

That's a given but I found it interesting that 1/2 was medical care.

 

Yeah - I have a pending surgery that moved to the end of may. Hopefully they can move it up.

 

If the October GDP and employment numbers are even close to what they were in January, I'll agree he's done a good job in
the recovery.

I still wouldn't vote for him, cause he's poor leader in every other aspect and poor example of humanity in general. For
me, protecting the environment is almost as important as the economy because they are so closely aligned.

But given how economies work, and how long it's going to take the general public to get back to feeling confident - and
given the unknowns of this virus (is it seasonal) I'll keep working my stock portfolio with a 12 - 18 month recovery as a goal.

 

Yet he has been right about China, manufacturing, relations with NK, and more and the only other choice is exactly the opposite.

 

I quoted your post where you made a claim; I asked for evidence of that claim...

 

Relations with NK are in about the same place they were when Obama was in office - any change has been the North Korean/South Korean relationship, and that was brought about by Korean negotiators.
China? Hell, if Trump and China weren't in a trade war, the dude's selling bat parts for food might have been working in a Chinese factory instead.

 

I had his Economic adviser, Navarro for both Microeconomics and Macroeconomics; that guy is very sharp, very opinionated too, but he was the intellect behind the issues with China when Trump was first running for President and when he first won. In regards to currency manipulation yes; in fact The Economist, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal all highlighted the issue manipulating the RMB (Yuan), a mix of left and right leaning publications, all known for being very accurate. Yet, leftist publications called Navarro wrong and behind the times, and said Trump had no idea what he was talking about, yet, on the issue of currency manipulation he was actually correct largely due to Navarro. It is true prior to Trump taking office the currency exchange difference did reduce but not optimally.

What Navarro and Trump got wrong were the heavy tariffs and trade wars that ensued that led to higher domestic payouts for products by US companies. Also the trade deficit is necessary even when the deficits should be reduced to some extent. Also, what the team got wrong was increase the US deficit close to beyond sustainable levels.

Navarro was wrong about Chloroquine, but he was correct about COVID-19 in January-early February. He is brilliant (Navarro) but sometimes he is too ad hoc.

 

I think NK is close to the same, except it appears Trump helped move negotiations along between NK and SK. It was a nudge.