Why Romney Will Win

Why Romney Will Win
> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/09/14/why_romney_will_win_115452.html


Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.

Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll -- taken after the conventions -- Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen's state-by-state likely voter data indicates a tie in the the battleground states.

But it's not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining '04 and '08 but skewing their samples to '08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in '04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in '08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered "yes" for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.

For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say 47-45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama's base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win in this sample by 46-45.

And then there is the enthusiasm gap. All recent polling suggests that Republican- and GOP-leaning Independents are 13 points more enthusiastic and following the race more closely than their Democratic counterparts. If the grassroots do their job, this will yield a stronger Romney vote.

Finally, when every poll among every sample has Obama below 50 percent of the vote, it is most likely that the undecided have, in fact, decided not to back his re-election.

But to crawl out of the statistical weeds, let's examine the state of the partisan dialogue. Former President Bill Clinton made a huge blunder when he accepted the Republican challenge and flatly -- and loudly -- asserted that we are, in fact, better off than we were four years ago. Polls show that only about 33 percent of voters agree, while close to half do not see the world that way.

Finally, both parties seemed happily to embrace the same formulation of the difference between them. Both agreed that the Republican Party is based on a philosophy of individual responsibility. Obama articulated it as, "You're on your own." Republicans put it differently: "We'll get government off your back." Democrats said theirs was a party that would lend you a hand.

Gallup measured these two options, and voters chose "leave me alone" over "lend me a hand" by 54-35.

Over the long haul, these are the questions that will dominate voting intentions. The function of the conventions is to formulate and articulate each party's view of the world. The fact that they were so similar and that each was willing to trust its fate to the question of, "Are you better off?" means that the Romney message will have a very strong advantage. The decision of the Democrats to embrace this choice and not to move to the center will make it impossible for them either to re-elect their president or to command a majority in the new Senate.

Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of "Outrage." To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com.

 

As much as I'd like to agree with your optimistic assessment, it looks like Obama is gaining ground over Romney. We'll see what happens though.

 

I don't believe those rigged polls for a second.

We will indeed.

 

Romney will lose big and be thrown into the political crap heap along with Mondale, Dole, Dukakis, Kerry and McCain....Ryan will be relagated back to the House for the rest of his term then probably get ousted in 2014....You guys nominated a couple of steaming turds. Dick Morris is a blowhard loser that looks and acts like a dishonest used car dealer...Try not to take it too hard when reality sets in on the first Tuesday in November...

 

If your Political Party had control over the polls and poll generating institutions, and you also had developed a Massive Voter Fraud on demand in swing states capability...


Would you not want to set the expectation of a Obama leading in the polls in the months/weeks just prior to the election, so that when your candidate WON (via the Fraud Vote), no one would question the election results?

 

Excellent point!

 

Still delusional, I see!
Funny!

 

Yes, you are.

 

Fox News has Obama up by 6 points among likely voters. Are the Democrats in control over there too?. If anyone has been involved in voter fraud in recent history it has been the GOP in both GW Bush elections. Evidence has shown that the Dieboldt machines were rigged in favor of GOP candidates and that GOP state officials have tampered with the voter rolls in key states in order to surpress the minority vote. Romney is losing in the polls because he is a (*)(*)(*)(*) poor candidate and he picked a brown nosed little twit who reminds people of Pee-Wee Herman for his running mate. These guys are going down hard in November and will be nothing more than jokes for Leno and Letterman for the rest of their lives.

 

Apparently Paul Ryan doesn't believe Romney will win in November because he's still running for his House seat.

http://politicker.com/2012/09/paul-ryans-new-congressional-campaign-ad/

 

Don't forget about the charges of gerrymandering that the GOP has faced in the last one to two decades in various parts of the country.

 

Romney will not win, average people have nothing in common with him. Period.

 

No No No Ryan is no Pee Wee Herman, I knew Pee Wee Herman, and he is no Pee Wee Herman, He is Eddie Munster

 

It would seem obvious to any except those who are right wing zealots that Romney is in serious trouble. The polls clearly show he's behind by significant amounts in states like Florida, Virginia, and Ohio which are vital for him to be able to reach the required 270 electoral votes. I know that here in PA, once considered a battleground state, Romney has all but surrendered and our airwaves are blissfully free of political ads as a result. From what I can tell, the right has adopted their typical tactics and will scream the lie that Romney is prevailing in hopes the naive and uninformed believe it. Of course they will also ignore or categorize as biased any scientific data that refutes their claims. Another bad sign for Romney is that the recent polls showed very few undecided voters left, often fewer than the margin of Obama's lead in a given state.

 

Paul Ryan is campaigning for his House seat because his opponent is closing fast on him. Michelle Bachman is in a dead heat for her seat. Both will probably win because the Super PACs will dump a ton of money into these two races as it would really look bad to lose either one of these. We will see if money can buy the seats as Republicans are outspending Democrats at about 4 to 1. Righties will say that shows they have support. Yep they got the support of billionares trying to buy our gov't.

 

Forget past gerrymandering the Republican controlled State legislatures have recently started imposing voter ID laws which require a voter to present a valid, state issued, identification in order the vote in direct violation of the Supreme Court decision in Harper v Virginia Board of Elections. Because a state issued identification card entails a fee be paid it is effectively a "poll tax" which the Court rules is an unconstitutional violation of the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/historics/USSC_CR_0383_0663_ZO.html

Republicans have intentionally promoting these laws as they are very much aware of the fact that those without state issued ID are overwhelmingly black and vote Democrat. It is estimated that in Pennsylvania, where the Republican controlled legislature recently passed a voter ID law, that roughly 300,000 legal voters would be denied the Right to Vote and that they were overwhelmingly blacks. On Thursday the Pennsylvania's state Supreme Court justices heard arguments on this law and it is doubtful it will remain as it clearly violates the Supreme Court decision in Harper.

http://mainlinemedianews.com/articles/2012/09/15/main_line_times/news/doc50523199bcb72232754144.txt

 

Forget past gerrymandering the Republican controlled State legislatures have recently started imposing voter ID laws which require a voter to present a valid, state issued, identification in order the vote in direct violation of the Supreme Court decision in Harper v Virginia Board of Elections. Because a state issued identification card entails a fee be paid it is effectively a "poll tax" which the Court rules is an unconstitutional violation of the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/historics/USSC_CR_0383_0663_ZO.html

Republicans have intentionally promoting these laws as they are very much aware of the fact that those without state issued ID are overwhelmingly black and vote Democrat. It is estimated that in Pennsylvania, where the Republican controlled legislature recently passed a voter ID law, that roughly 300,000 legal voters would be denied the Right to Vote and that they were overwhelmingly blacks. On Thursday the Pennsylvania's state Supreme Court justices heard arguments on this law and it is doubtful it will remain as it clearly violates the Supreme Court decision in Harper.

http://mainlinemedianews.com/articles/2012/09/15/main_line_times/news/doc50523199bcb72232754144.txt

 

LOL!!
Gawd I do love the right wing extremist conspiracies!
Voter fraud, no evidence, none, not one little bit yet somehow it's 'on demand'! LOL!
Control over the polls, again no evidence at all, except all the rightwing pollsters that cater to the GOP. But somehow i don't think you were talking about them were you?
Couple all that with an op-ed from the moron dick morris, who has never, not once, in his entire career been correct about anything and you have the making for a great comedy!

 

they just reported romney up by 11 points among independents

 

The problem being that independents are down to about 5%, and Obama is up by at least that much in OH/FL/VA. Romney has to not only get every single undecided voter, he also has to flip a lot of committed Obama voters. Not going to happen.

 

I still say Romney will win big. I can count numerous times when the press and their "polls" predicted the opposite of what actually happened.

 

but the company name Diebold that promised Bush the election changed their name right, so that means everything is better, the negative votes Kerry got were just a fluke </end sarcasm>

I do not see why we can not count BOTH manually and electronically and use those two methods to validate each other, don't people want honest results

even letting people insert their vote card in two separate machines that are used to validate each other is better then what we have now, putting all of our faith in ONE PERSON is crazy (corps are people too remember)

.

 

And you support Obama? Why? What is it you expect him to do with another four years of his failed policies to get the economy back on track and people back to work in private sector jobs?

 

Maybe he'll christin the first all gay Naval vessel.