Boris Johnson wins contest to be United Kingdom’s new prime minister

Are you talking about a law prohibiting no deal Brexit from April?
That law meant to force May to ask for extension. A no deal Brexit is not illegal.

 

He's an opportunist.

I doubt anyone knows what will come to pass. The UK will have a lower standard-of-living. Will the people revolt? Will Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK?

 

If Germany has a growth of 1.2 or 1.5 % it maxes out its industry, dangerously, which happened in 2017 and 2018 and they run out of qualified workers.
0.9% is different than what it means in the US, the quarterly growth, is extrapolated and means annual growth.
If the economy continues at that level, the annual growth would be 0.9.
Germany had in 2018 4th -0.4 but than rebounded to 0.5 in the first of 2019 ( annual ), that's a 1.1 difference.

You have to understand the figures, completely different from the US.

Same in unemployment figures, just on the side.

 

Is Boris intending to prorogue Parliament? Keep them out of the House until the clock runs out and Brexit proceeds without a deal? That wouldn't go down well.

 

Not a no deal would not be legal, the Parliament decided.
He would have to find a majority to change that, first. That was a binding vote.
But anyhow, any form of Brexit would have to be voted on in Parliament, Johnson is not a King and he can not do it by decreed.
He has the same dilemma as May had.

 

They would kick his ass out of # 10 so fast, he would never catch up with it for the rest of his live

 

None of it will happen. Johnson is a sitting duck, nothing more, like May.
The incoming President of the EU Commission already hinted a new extension, which will happen.
Johnson will just lead to general election, or a new vote on Brexit.
There is no vote for a no deal and there is no vote for a deal and Johnson will not get a voteable deal in the UK Parliament from the EU.
May all over, but check mate.

 

I don’t know how much he will negotiate, but it sounds like he is ready to take it all the way to the end.

 

Rejection is never easy.

 

Indeed. Canada has a free trade deal with the EU. I don't think they worried about the Commonwealth.

 

I think the place could come unstuck if Boris runs out the clock and there's no chance for reversing course.

Old Brits are a pain in the arse. Many will be dead in 20 years, so what does Brexit mean to them? Why would they take young people out of the EU when most young people want to stay in the EU?

 

Why not block some of the British competition? Russia limits the carriers who can fly in Russian airspace.

 

I don’t know, Britain voted to leave. That’s all that matters.
In my opinion (which is just an opinion) leaving EU would be very good for the U.K. and I don’t think their economy will suffer that much. The fact that the EU will suffer significant pain as well is a sign that a quick free trade agreement is a strong possibility.

 

Maybe it’s possible in theory, but I just really don’t see it happen. Other non-EU airlines get to fly over the EU, but suddenly U.K. will be excluded. This just seems silly and petty to me.

 

According to Trading Economics UK has annualized GDP growth of 1.8%. Germany has is at 0.7%. Looks like Germany got itself out of contraction, but still 0.7% annual is mediocre. UK with its growth has a little bit of a wiggle room for Brexit.

 

Its a non binding, which was brought on by Cameron to silence the opposition in his party.

 

You have to have landings rights, in the US, the EU or what ever countries. The UK leaves the EU, its landing rights in the EU expire, because they are part of the EU contract. The UK would have to renegotiate those rights with the EU, probably with each country, I am not sure about that.

 

Doesn’t seem like a major issue to me. They’ll just negotiate new deals. Receiving airports earn money when they receive and service an airplane.

 

Let me explain it to you, Germany is booked out at 1.2 %, can handle maybe 1.8 or so for 2 or 3 years, but than the burn out happens.
There is only 82 millions, that's it. If Germany runs unemployment at 4%, it means every skilled worker does overtime.
At the current GDP level total Euro value, Germany is close or even maxing out and can only increase further through massive technology investments, robots, not enough people.
The UK growth is service sectors, check it out.
Lets not forget no Brexit has happened jet and the UK is still profiting from the EU market and the EU is doing well.
Take Japan, its economy has reach such a high level, that the GDP growth are forgettable, but that's what the country can put out. All gains are based on technology, robots, because the man power, is used up.
If a country like Germany sees a uptick in unemployment of 1% it means 20 or 30 thousand, in the US it means 200,000 or 300,000 thousand.

Its all about Bexit and it is all speculation, but I would say the UK is in deep **** without a deal, because 42% of its economy is EU economy.
Even if it just looses only 15% because of tariffs, devastating.
Germany taking the same approach, 3 to 5%, not good, but not devastating.
Lets repeat the numbers, 42% would become WTO.
Germany 12% would become WTO.

 

Wrong to.
The competion in the EU market is huge. The slots the UK will open, will be gone in no time. That's why UK airlines are moving to the EU, so they will not loose their slots.
Which means they move people to the EU, like the banks.

 

Well, I’m the US we have lower unemployment than Germany and higher GDP per capita, yet our GDP growth is significantly higher.
You remind me Obama who claimed 2% gdp growth is a new normal. It was proven that it doesn’t have to be that way.

How exactly is U.K. profiting from EU market? UK imports more from EU than exports into EU. Do you understand the difference in cash inflow and outflow?

Britain doesn’t have to lose even 5% - they are a buyer, not a seller. They don’t have to buy apples or cars from EU. I can buy produce from Chile in the US for cheaper than you can buy same produce in the EU and the distance between Chile and the US or U.K. isn’t really that big. If I can have that produce for cheaper then why can’t the U.K.? The country is surrounded by ocean - shipping is going to be as easy as it is for the US.

That’s where you got it wrong. For Germany it’s a total loss of revenue. For U.K. - they don’t have to buy anything from EU. They can pick any alternative they want. If Polish apples become pricey they can buy same apples from Ukraine, Belarus, Russia or even the United States. EU is not a monopoly on anything and U.K. can replace everything it buys from EU.

Again, it’s easier for U.K. to redirect 42% because it’s cash outflow (they buy) than it is for Germany to make up for the lost 12% cash inflow.

 

Canada has access to the most natural resources outside of Russia to exchange in trade agreements and still has to work hard to get deals. The UK will rediscover its a cold out there for middle tier countries.

 

Why should we? Its easier for EasyJet to simply leave the UK and move to France or Germany

 

If Boris can't get a deal, crashing out of the EU in a few months will damage the UK economy. Welcome to a lower standard-of-living.

 

I personally fear that the UK, where I live, is going to go through hard times starting in a few months.

But it's been there before, and in any case, consider Germany at the end of the Second World War. Bombed flat, millions of her best people dead, dismembered of her territory, her factories looted or destroyed even after the war was over. But she recovered. An intelligent hard-working population and the free market will do miracles. (It's even good to have such people if you're saddled with socialism: a Russian friend of mine joked, in the late 80s, "Those damned Germans ... they can even make socialism work!" and there is no question but that the DDR was, in terms of material living standards, the best advertisement for socialism at the time.)

So if the UK economy does take a dive, it might provide an opportunity for savvy long-term investors to make some money.