Critical thing to note is the lack of polling in those states. And certainly a lack of recent polling data. I think you could comfortably add 4-5 points to every Bernie support and subtract that much (split) from several of the others.
People with degrees from excellent schools who have lucrative careers also vote for Bernie. The college kids were energized about Bernie in 2016. From my perspective, the Bernie buzz emanated from them and since then his base has only expanded.
I was looking at the polls conducted in February for most states. Prior polls are too old to have meaning. Utah and Colorado don't have any "fresh" numbers. Polls are a barometer of sentiment at the time they are taken, and we know they could be wrong. I don't see Bernie picking up additional supporters just because he's the frontrunner. People are going to vote for a Socialist or not. If anything, Bernie's lead may get people who prefer a moderate off the couch.
It isnt a difficult argument to make. Tbe choice was never between socialism and capitalism. The choice is between democratic socialism and corporate/militaristic socialism
Maybe. The DNC will work hard to prevent that. We shall see who wins. Will it be DNC or the democrat voters?
The rules were set up ahead of time. Either a candidate gets to 1991 delegates to win the nomination or he/she doesn't. It's just like a candidate needing 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. A lot of people are going to think that Bernie was cheated if he fails to hit 1991, and the majority of delegates don't choose to vote for him after the first round. The preference of a majority of Democrat voters is for a moderate.
Given Steyer's high spend in SC and relatively good poll numbers as of a couple weeks ago (not sure what it is right now), I'd expect him to at least wait until after that. What I find interesting though when comparing him an Klobuchar is that despite him massively outspending other candidates in Nevada, Klobuchar's supporters were able to stick with her and/or she had more 2nd / 3rd choice support. I think this gives us a bit of a window into what may happen to Bloomberg given the debate performance in Nevada. Ad spend gets your name out there - which is very important in primaries where people don't know who you are. But it doesn't seem like it has helped Steyer with 2nd preferences or with maintaining support once he appeared non viable. This may indicate Bloomberg's national rise is unstable, and will evaporate quickly. On 2nd choice votes, I think there are a few things that may be at play here. First, some of that is definitely legitimate 2nd choices. But beyond that, the sheer number of candidates around the 17-8% support on first alignment means there may have been no other viable candidates at a number of sites. Bernie was likely viable at nearly all sites - which means some people may have had to gravitate to his camp due to lack of other real options. Another thing I think played an important role in alignment are how the early voting worked. Voters needed to rank at least 3 candidates, and no more than 5. If you think about how this works - these are now locked in votes, and will follow a guaranteed pattern people on site could anticipate. This means voters on site can make someone else viable by switching their own vote to join where the early votes went, but not the reverse. Though we don't have direct evidence to support this, the fact that Pete's support went up by a more significant amount than Biden's after 1st alignment may indicate that is where people are willing (or had) to compromise in order to prevent more early votes going toward Bernie / Biden. Keeping the vote as split as possible is a tactic to prolong the primaries - giving your 1st choice candidate a chance to hang around. It is a tactic I saw while watching Iowa caucus results live when a number of non-viable candidate backers banded together to make Booker viable.
You think the DNC wants a Socialist? Over 50% of Democrats are voting for moderate candidates, even though the votes are fractured by too many moderates running in the race.
I'm working class what needs to be remembered about me and what of my back is Sanders going to have? Trump has been great for both. No one has done more for our trade policies than Trump what is Sanders going to do he knows nothing about business and trade. What power was taken from my hands and what will be different when I get it back?
Technically, they could boot him for breach of contract, but they'd start a civil war. New rules in 2018.... "The new rule, adopted by the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, requires all Democratic presidential candidates to be a member of the Democratic Party, Yahoo News reported. A presidential candidate running for the Democratic nomination must be a member of the party, accept the Democratic nomination and “run and serve” as a member." https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...quiring-candidates-to-run-serve-as-a-democrat
You're a Democrat and you'll vote for anyone who may have a chance to beat Donald Trump, even the Socialist Bernie supporting you will. That will make you a Socialist yourself. No rocket science, really.
Right. Trump is pro-defense but anti-war. Our equipment was outdated. China and Russia have satellites in outer space which could knock out our electric grid, or worse. It's about time we established a Space Force and updated technology and equipment in other military branches.
"even though the votes are fractured by too many moderates running in the race." That's a pretty big point though and one I'd say Sanders supporters will seize on if he gets passed over. Just because those moderates seem to be the same doesn't mean that their voters will definitely switch between them. And again I really don't think it's gonna to be a slam dunk for either side progressives against moderates because it wasn't in 2016 the moderate won 34 and the progressive won 23 but 7 states where within 3 percentage points.
I am an INDEPENDENT and you are correct that I will vote for anyone who can flush your criminal IMPOTUS out of the Oval office. Apparently you have no idea what a Social Democrat is. Sad!
Yes, Sanders supporters certainly will seize on that if he gets passed over. That's because they either don't understand the rules or will pretend not to. If Bernie gets 1991, he'll be the nominee. Looking at the numbers, I think it's questionable that he will win the majority of the delegates when all is said and done. The candidates who have won delegates so far keep those delegates at the convention, even if they drop out, unless they release them to vote for whomever they wish. Let's say Pete, who is currently in second place drops out and releases his delegates but sends a signal to those delegates of whom to vote for by endorsing Biden. Biden ends up with all or most of Pete's previous delegates. Then Klobuchar endorses Biden and her 7 delegates for Biden and so on. How many candidates are going to drop out and endorse Sanders? Not many, I think. Maybe Warren who has only a few delegates as bargaining chips. It's not "cheating" to play by the convention party rules, but Sanders supporters won't see it that way. So....if other candidates cumulatively have more delegates than Sanders at the end of the primaries/caucuses, they'll have all the bargaining power.
