Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

To memorialize all the names, you would need at least 100 pages of newspaper...

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/pennsylvania/

I'm pretty sure you've already looked into today's stats, but a warning alert out of Pennsylvania. Of the +470 cases today, none of them have come out of Philadelphia County, so Pennsylvania could be looking at a bad today if/when Philly gets active.

 

To memorialize all the names who died -with- COVID1984 but actually dead -of- other diseases, you'd need far less newspaper.

To memorialize all the names of young, healthy people without comorbidity who actually died of COVID1984, much less than a single sheet, maybe just a few lines.

 

So, with 10 hours to go on the East Coast of the USA, 4 hours to go in my day and 6 hours to go at the Greenwich Meridian Line, the USA has now crossed over 99,000 COVID-19 deaths:



And this is without data of any sort from 24 states (incl. DC), plus no daily death counts from 7 additional states and until now, nothing from Veterans Affairs, the Federal Prison System, the Navajo nation or any of the US territories:





And here is how the statistics currently look like at the excel table, noting the daily death toll in the USA the two Sundays before this one:



A second update will come before I go to bed tonight.

We are now 997 away from the tragic 100,000 C19 death-mark.

-Stat

 

Thanks for posting that. Actually, for the benefit of my own mental health, I have been looking at the numbers less and less during the day, because it causes quite a lot of inner disquiet in my soul. But you also indirectly brought up a good point that a number of states in the USA often report more than once during the day, among them, the larger of the states, for sure (NJ, NJ, PA, IL, CA, MI, sometimes, OH).

We all know that we will hit the 100,000 death mark and then keep marching on for a while, because the virus is still out there. Practical behavior, physical distancing and watchfulness will now be our travel companions for a good while to go.

 

@Sanskrit would like you to know that young, healthy individuals with no comorbidities are unlikely to die from this virus.

Breaking news at 11.

 

Yaaaawn. I much prefer real news. Plus, life is too short to talk much with the people between the walls these days.

 

My forum experience has gotten much healthier since I put those with nothing meaningful to contribute in iggy. Closed minds make my teeth itch.

 

It should be noted that the number of deaths in Brazil has doubled in circa 14 days time, from 11,123 deaths on Sunday, May 9th, 2020 to 22,291 deaths today (Sunday, May 24th, 2020):



That's a big doubling, but the doubling time was actually far shorter for the USA going from the 10,000 range to the 20,000 range, From April 6th, 2020 to April 12th, 2020:

 

Indeed. People of good-will generally want to stick with facts, anyway. No time for the trollish din out there.

 

I would like to make a couple of notes on the Mortality Rate of this Virus. First off, I would like to note that WorldofMeters has a significant write up on Mortality Rates based on New York Data.

I will quote it in full here:

 

This is extremely relevant information.

Color me pessimistic, but if almost 20% of NYC has already been infected, I think we can safely assume that the same applies to other very large cities, esp. LA, Chicago, Houston, Cleveland, Detroit, Philly, Atlanta and Miami, just for starters.

 

But also, we may have to redefine the definition of 'infected'. In other words if someone has coronavirus, and it's a mild case, let's say on April 3rd, and they're fine and they test positive on May 1st or something like that that doesn't mean it's a brand new spanking case. Basically, we may be 'rediscovering' old cases that have been resolved or on the verge of being resolved but only freshly added to the system.

 

Now, here is my personal project on mortality rate. While a pandemic is ongoing, one method for estimating the mortality rate is to divide the number of deaths in a single day in a given region against the total number of resolved cases. I have been tracking this data in every country that has seen at least 1,000 deaths. Over time, that rate will continue to decrease as these regions get a better handle on the virus and the number of resolved cases grow and (hopefully) the number of daily deaths decrease. Eventually that mark reaches below 0.1% and I decided that after I have seen that mark for 8 days in a row, I evaluate that the country has reached the end of the first wave of the pandemic. At that point, I divide the total number of deaths against the total resolved to reach a case mortality rate within those countries during this first pandemic wave. Below are the countries who managed to achieve that mark and the mortality rate they experienced during the first wave of the pandemic:

China - 5.59%
Germany - 4.99%
Iran - 6.67%
Turkey - 3.55%
Switzerland - 6.38%
Ireland - 7.01%

I made a rolling 7 day average for each of those countries to say what the mortality rate of the virus iwas during the last week for those countries. Some of these are very strange - like Russia, which has started and remained extremely low compared to other countries. As you can see Spain, Romania, Italy, France, and Belgium are all getting very close to that 8-day mark that I mentioned earlier given that their 7 day rolling average is at or below 0.1%. Hopefully, they can keep it going and cross over soon.

US - 0.255%
Spain - 0.071%
Italy - 0.084%
France - 0.111%
Belgium - 0.138%
Brazil - 0.668%
Canada - 0.206%
Sweden - 0.517%
Mexico - 0.738%
Portugal - 0.182%
India - 0.291%
Russia - 0.137%
Peru - 0.288%
Ecuador - 0.909%
Indonesia - 0.633%
Romania - 0.101%

A special note for UK and Netherlands because they do not list their recovered individuals. The same arguably applies to the US and I calculated earlier that the US recovered should be around 30% higher due to some of the hardest hit States refusing to report their recovered.

 

They would only be "old" had those people taken a COVID-19 test and it showed up positive at that earlier point in time. And then there are the very rare re-infections that have happened.

However, the bigger question is how to categorize people who test positive for the presence of antibodies in their bodies, proof that they were infected and resolved the illness without perhaps evening noticing it, but who did not take the standard COVID-19 test.

 

And I do suspect there are more people in that category of antibodies(just we don't have the widespread testing for that, some false positives, etc.). It's because we don't know due to the prior requests to not get tested without symptoms and/or having visited the host countries.

(The host countries thing is probably meaningless now.) But it's like, are we in a position where a random joe can get a test? I think that would go a long way to finding stuff out, but are we there yet?

 

Update 2:



757 away from 100,000.....

Gute Nacht, PFers.

 

Thanks for your considered reply. It all makes sense within the context of the place, but not much to those of us outside America.

EG, I'm in a considerably more athiest/Lefty nation than America is, and we currently have a religious nutter Rightist leader - yet 80%+ of us were very keen to go hard and do our bit. Our national politics didn't enter into it at all, not a bit. Far Left and Far Right, all wanting to join the fight. The few miscreants were notable for a general sense of entitlement, and were manifest on both sides of the political divide. Lefties sophisticates trying to escape the cities to their country/coastal weekenders, and rednecks trying to do redneck things out on the streets during lockdown.

What's happening in America seems disconnected from the broader reality of a global pandemic.

 

jup

 

So, positive note: Remember when I said that if Philly had a bad day, PA would have a major outbreak? Well, that's the bright spot of the day. On Sunday, 5/24/2020, I shall take the small victory that Philly reported not a single case on this day. Which is huge for us.

 

Well done Philly! We're getting down towards that here (nationwide though), and it feels very very good.

 

A few more charts..
I hope the US is not going to stall at a 7% positivity rate.

With a grand opening coming that seems like a lot of active cases ready to start new outbreaks.

I averaged out the day that Georgia had 100% positives so we can get a better view of what is happening.


Florida still going.

 

American history.

The 1770's war against the Mother Country (Britain), leading to unbalanced concern for individual 'freedom'/self-interest, compared with efficient community administration (government).

 

To memorialize all the names who died -with- COVID1984 but actually dead -of- other diseases, you'd need far less newspaper.

To memorialize all the names of young, healthy people without comorbidity who actually died of COVID1984, much less than a single sheet, maybe just a few lines.

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before, Saturday, 2020-05-023 (EOD GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT). Also here in a nutshell:

During the run of the day on 2020-05-024, there were some intermittent analyses:
USA EOD report 2020-05-023, posted 2020-05-024, 10:50 GMT +2, #9421.
USA update 001, 2020-05-024, 20:05 GMT +2, #9429.
USA update 002, 2020-05-024 midnight GMT +2, #9442.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Sunday, 2020-05-024 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

*****5,494,455*****
+96,505 cases today over yesterday.
There are 107 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
There are now 346,434 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
703 Brazilians & 617 Americans died from COVID-19 on this day.
This is the first day in a long time where a country other than the USA lead in daily deaths.
2020-05-024 reflected the smallest amount of daily worldwide C19 deaths since 2020-03-026.
​

You can find confirmation of the statistics these reports at the WAYBACK MACHINE. Search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We saw +96,505 new cases, as compared the day before (+99,938 ), -3,433 less cases than the day before. The growth rate was 1.79%. The day before, it was 1.89%. This was the sixth day in a row where the world either came very close to or shot over +100,000 new C19 cases per day.

The 7-day new cases average for the week that just ended (from 2020-05-018 through 2020-05-024) was 99,313 cases per day.

In terms of deaths: 346,434 total. In terms of daily deaths, the world suffered +2,826 daily deaths over the day before, making for a 0.82% growth rate (yesterday: 1.23%). This is the smallest amount of daily deaths across the world since 2020-03-026.

The death rate decreased to 6.31%. The day before, it was 6.37%.

The 7-day new cases average for the week that just ended (from 2020-05-018 through 2020-05-024) was 4,273 deaths per day.

The % of recovered people rose from 41.59% yesterday to 41.85%, an exact -10.00% disparity to the 51.85% of those who are still sick, an enormous improvement over this sitation since around the third week of March, 2020. The last time the recovereds were around the 40% mark was on 2020-03-017. The last time that the % of recovereds and the % of sick people were equal was on: 2020-03-014 (47.70% / 48.57%). A sign that at least this wave of the pandemic is ending is when the number of recovered people is around 85-90% and the number of people still sick is between 5-10%. This is the direction in which the world obviously wants to go.

The countries with the most new cases:
​

Currently, and unsurprisingly, the USA leads with the most new cases and has been doing so for a long time, but now, just barely over Brazil, which is right behind the USA and growing in cases more and more every week. Russia, with half the new cases that Brazil reported, is rank 3, followed by India, Peru and Chile.

56 countries had +100 or more new cases, closing in on 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 61. Of those 56, 16 countries had +1000 or more new cases (and 6 of them are from the Americas); the day before, it was 17.

The countries with the most new daily deaths:
​

For the first time in quite a while, the USA (+617) did NOT lead in deaths on 2020-05-024; rather, Brasil had the most daily deaths to mourn (+703).

9 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 9 the day before). 3 of those 6 countries are from the Americas.

Total deaths per country, descending:
​

There are TWENTY-FIVE nations with over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

There are 68 nations with 100 total deaths or more. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Croatia (99) will soon join this statistic.

New: Total Tests administered per country, descending:
​

12 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece. The USA has now performed 14.7 million tests, Russia has performed 8.7 million tests. Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, it still stick (for days now) at only 735,000 tests administered. Just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia....

And now, on to the more expansive listing:

Total cases per country, descending (980 cases or above):​

There are 107 nations in the "thousand club. Albania (998 ), Equatorial Guinea (960), Niger (945), Cyprus (935), Costa Rica (930) and Zambia (920) are up next to cross the 1,000 line in the next days. Five weeks ago, on 2020-04-019, I recorded 79 nations as being in the 1,000 club, so 38 more nations have crossed over the line since then. It was once possible to capture all the nations with 500+ cases in 4 screenshots, now it takes 4 screenshots just for all with +1,000 or more. Soon, I will have to move to 5 screenshots....

Of those 107, 49 are in the "10,000 club, with Afganistan having crossed the 10,000 line on 2020-05-024. In the same report I referenced in the paragraph above, from 2020-04-019, there were 24 nations in the 10,000 club, so 25 nations have crossed over the 10,000 line since then.

Further, 12 of those 46 are at 100,000 or more. Russia and Brasil are both now over 300,000. And in the same report I referenced in the two paragraphs above, from 2020-04-019, there were 6 nations in the 100,000 club, so 6 nations have crossed over the 100,000 line since then. Canada has now surpassed China's still-stand 82,000 and at this growth rate will hit 100,000 in about 15 day, but Saudi Arabia, Chile and Mexico will likely get there sooner.

The point I am making is: this is not all about the USA. Nations all over the world are being massively afflicted with the COVID-19 virus and some are in far worse shape to even begin to combat the pandemic.

Facit: on 2020-05-024 world came over the 5.4 million mark and finished the day just under the 5.5 million mark. Yesterday, I wrote the following:

And so it was.

Now at +99,300 deaths, the USA is marching toward hitting the 100,000 COVID-19 death-mark today, on Memorial Day, 2020 and is on course to go over 106,000 by the end of May, 2020. For a good while in this report, I wrote that the USA could maybe even go as high as 130,000 by the end of May, 2020. Fortunately, this is not going to happen. What has happened instead has been the sudden extreme rise in C19 cases and daily deaths in Brazil, which may or may not overtake the USA in June as the world's largest hotspot. Or we may have two huge hotspots plateau'ing through the summer of 2020. Or maybe 2 or 3 more hotspots may even come along. Who knows for sure.

The world-wide curve has most definitely flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation, so that emergency rooms and ICU units across the world would not all be overloaded at once. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.


-Stat