Excess Deaths

Might be yes. Some people it's hard to know if the Covid 19 was the cause of their death, hastened their cause of death, or was coincidental to their cause of death. That is true.

However the analysis of negative impact of Covid 19 is not limited to actual causes of direct death from it.

When that is done its done byTrumpets on this forum for political reasons to try defend Trump's behaviour in regards to downplaying Covid 19.

The absurd argument being advanced by Trumpets is they decide what number of deaths is important to them. This coming from people who claim every life is precious when it comes to abortions so they need to appoint an anti abortion Supreme Court Judge but not when it comes to Covid 19 200 thousand or so deaths is no big deal. The inherent contradictions in their positions never seem to bother them.

The point is the descriptor "excessive" before death is a subjective qualification not an objective one.

There is no objective number as to when a death is excessive.

People who downplay death rates remind me of holocaust deniers whose first method of denying or downplaying the holocaust is to state the numbers were inflated and so were NOT excessive and therefore NOT a big deal.

They then try compare how many people died in other genocides as if it was a football score trying to argue amount of deaths defines the moral relativity of those deaths.

That exact frame of argument they use is used by Trumpets in regards to Covid 19 and it should be no surprise to anyone why.

The negative impact of death is more than in the numbers of deaths, If Trumpets can not see that, no one should be surprised. They hero worship someone whose entire mantra is to show contempt for anything but his own immediate needs. They see that contempt as strength and a quality to immitate.

 

Ah, yes. I did miss that Thank you I stand corrected on that point.



So add in 263k for January and that will put us closer to 3 million for 2020.





I find it is still not a moot point that the 12-month rolling count (12 Month-ending Number of Deaths) has not risen over 2.9 million so far.

 

A week ending xx/xx/xxxx accounts for data from the preceeding month.

 

As others have pointed out, those figures are reporting data from 1st February 2020 to 10th October 2020. It also points out the other aspect I mentioned, that recent data like this will typically be incomplete ("*Data during the period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more.").

If you're going to apply the kind statistical analysis, you should really make sure you understand the technical details of the data you're working with.

 

You quoted me, yet I never brought up Trump or anything political. I'm just looking at data and numbers.

I'll presume, then, that you are speaking generically to voice your opinion of "Trumpets".

 

Oh, yes you are correct, at least on the "week" if not the "month". I does read "week ending", not "week beginning", so my original analysis is closer to correct, than the "correction" I just made. lol

 

Apples and oranges

Compare April through October to that same time period on average over the last five years and you'll see the excess deaths...but then that's what you DON'T want to see so we get this cherry picking nonsense

 

The week ended February 1st, would be Jan 26th - Feb 1st as a starting week. Week ended October 10th would be Oct 4-10th.

So, my original number crunching needs a few tweeks, adding in 25 days of January and subtracting 4 days of October, or add in 3 weeks.

I still think we're just about in the ballpark to not see a huge number of excessive deaths in 2020, but we'll see how the finals shake out.

 

I think it's good if we don't see a lot of excess deaths versus others who seem to want that number to be larger rather than smaller. Ah, politics.

 

And you're trying SO HARD...bless your heart

 

The number is what it is...you just keep try8ing to say that it's something else.

Again...The bulk of deaths occurred between April and October so that is what needs to be compared...if ya wanna be honest...which apparently...

 

Maybe what you should do is average the last 5 years of deaths adjusted for population and compare that.
Should we wait?

 

That looks remarkably like the chart in Post #3, which has been discussed. Got anything new?

 

LOL..."discussed"?

Don't need anything new. That says it all

 

Okay. Thanks.

 

Death excess should be about 100,000

Population at the end of 2019 ~ 331 million ~ 2.8 million deaths
Population at the end of 2020 ~ 334 million ~ 3 million deaths

331 / 2.8 ~ 115
334 / 115 ~ 2.9
3.0 - 2.9 millions ~ 100,000.

200,000 excess death is a lie.

100,000 is still high number but we have to remember that we are on uptrend in mortality
Also CDC did not calculate how many people died from lock-down and adverse economic conditions.

At the end, CDC is correct by saying that about 6% of all who died can be attributed to COVID-19.

 

April through October

 

If the excess mortality is the same, can we necessarily conclude the lockdowns were ineffective? If more Cops and stricter laws are deployed in a gang-ridden area to combat crime, we will likely see crime go down in that area. Can we conclude that more cops and penalties did nothing to lower crime and that the crime was going down by itself?

 

https://healthfeedback.org/claimrev...st-months-of-2020-compared-to-previous-years/

 

That's because the 12 month rolling count started 18 Oct 2019 and so includes four and a half months of no significant excess deaths from any abnormal causes of deaths

 

Obviously they were. NY and the bulk of the North East dropped in infections and deaths dramatically because of them. Other parts of the country were not as serious about them and they are paying the price now

 

In addition to using preliminary data that underestimated mortality, the author chose a time period for her analysis which includes deaths that occurred before the outbreak began in this U.S.—this has the effect of obscuring the magnitude of the impact of the outbreak on the mortality after it began.

In January, the best estimates indicate that the prevalence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. was low to zero. The first officially recorded case of COVID-19 in the U.S. was on 19 January 2020[1], although some undetected cases may have occurred sporadically before that. The first local chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was reported at the end of January[2] and the first death of a patient who tested positive for COVID-19 likely occurred in early February. As the CDC reports, the number of COVID-19-positive patients did not start to increase sharply until week 13 (22 – 28 March).

This means that 12 out of the 17 weeks chosen for analysis by the post’s author included few to no deaths from COVID-19. The chosen time window is therefore not appropriate for assessing the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on m

 

And that is exactly how it should be calculated, we have to look at moving averages instead of cherry picking four months in 2020.
any random event has peaks and troughs, so we have to look at moving averages.