Corona Virus Update

They cant be...One is factual one is a guess.

 

So you cant source the chart.. You dontt have a label to designate time.. You dont have a Y axis designating what is being charted..

You have no data showing who collected said data or heck even what the chart means.... No legend nothing...

****ing basics in graphing data!

 

OMG Italy has had 919 deaths in the last 24 hours

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Heart goes out to the people of Italy.

 

I have NOT yet heard - A good explanation as to WHY
...... the experience of Italy is so Seriously different.

 

Here's the source with the labels.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-trump-reopen-america.html?mod=article_inline

 

Based on a simulation from last year?

Did you read the legend?

 

This is an extract from an article dated 23 Jan 2020:

https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week

So 240 deaths out of 2,768,000 confirmed cases of seasonal flu in Italy yet we have people on this forum saying that the Coronavirus is not as bad as seasonal flu

 

Many countries are following the same path that Italy has gone through

 

Note that this is a model, not the real world; epidemiologists say that in reality the virus without controls would take longer to spread, partly because of growing immunity and partly because people would become much more careful. We are using the S.E.I.R. (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Resistant) model; this differs from a model we previously published because it also considers a latency period, when an infected person is not yet contagious. The weather calculation is based on a seasonality formula from a paper about the coronavirus in Swiss Medical Weekly. This model was adapted from a version developed by the mathematician Gabriel Goh (with assistance from Steven De Keninck, another mathematician), modified for Times Opinion with the guidance of the epidemiologists Ashleigh Tuite and David N. Fisman from the University of Toronto. While we reveal many of the variables in the tool itself, we also made several assumptions based on the best available estimates for the coronavirus: the incubation period is set to 5.2 days; the infectious period is set to 2.9 days; recovery is assumed to take 11.1 days for mild cases and 28.6 days for severe cases; time to death is estimated to be 32 days; we also assume a delay of five days before infected patients visit a hospital.

 

"This study is meant as an exploration of how such a pandemic could unfold, not as a prediction of any particular scenario. The results we present are critically dependent on the assumptions i) that the outbreak will develop into a pandemic, ii) that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 shows seasonal variability of sufficient strength (range ε = 0.3 to 0.7), and iii) that parameters like R0 estimated from the early phase of the outbreak are comparable in other populations."https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224

You should be worried when science and assumptions are mixed.

 

I am not sure it necessarily is. Italy and the West in general was different to countries in the area who immediately shut their borders, put masks on all their people and started mass testing, finding contacts and isolating them.

I think originally Italy was a bit like the US under Trump - they were too big for the virus. Having said that they are very lucky in that it seems to have been mainly in the North which is apparently one of the richest areas in the world with one of the very best health services - way better than the UK,

Northern Italy shows what you get if you do not immediately take serious action such as I have described above. Another thing to be aware of and this is not just for Italy it will happen other places too. In the town where it started in Italy the average death in a specific month, may have been January is around 98. This year it was over 400. However only about 200 of the extras were seen as belonging to Coronavirus. People liked to pretend it does not exist while it growing.

The UK has been expecting to end up not too different to Italy. We are apparently about 2 weeks behind Italy. We were slow to get started.

I would imagine the US is much the same and like Italy in that you have likely had a large number of deaths already from the virus which have been put down to other things, obviously increasing the spread.

I think the West did not believe China and there were for instance in the UK some crazy notions coming out - for instance I think from someone at Oxford University that the UK had had the virus since January and that over half the people had already had it and the vast, vast majority had no symptoms. It has been suggested that is why we originally thought of 'herd immunity' were slow to get started and now we find ourselves with our Prime Minister, our Health Minister with the virus and our Chief Health Medical officer going into isolation as well as he has symptoms.

Unfortunately Italy may be the first of many.

Germany is the one country which is unusual in a very low death toll.

 

The chart is factual, and you can find it online.

If we go the Trump way, the chart will lead to his defeat in the fall.

 

Assumptions and predictions are not "factual" get a basic grasp on what you are discussing.

 

Factual, as there is real data to draw both of those graphs?

 

Italy has the oldest population in Europe, which is probably why it has had such a high death rate.

 

Here's something you're probably not going to like:
President Donald Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Thursday evening that he believes that the coronavirus battle will not require the number of medical equipment that have been requested by some states.

Trump has been the subject of criticism over the distribution of medical equipment from federal stockpiles, with some state governors saying they do not have enough ventilators available to properly care for patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

"FEMA says, 'we're sending 400 ventilators," New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said at a Wednesday news conference. "Really? What am I going to do with 400 ventilators when I need 30,000?"

"I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said for some areas are just bigger than they're going to be," Trump said. "I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You know, at a major hospital sometimes they'll have two ventilators. All of a sudden they're saying, 'Can we order 30,000 ventilators?'"

"Look, it's a very bad situation," the president continued. "We haven't seen anything like it. But the end result is we gotta get back to work and I think we can start by opening up certain parts of the country."

While many lawmakers have asked Trump to use the powers of the Defense Production Act (DPA) in order to impel American manufacturers to create more medical equipment, the president said companies have "stepped up" and volunteered to make them on their own.

"I haven't had to use [the DPA]," Trump said. "Ford stepped up, so many companies stepped up and they're making vast amounts of things." (end of story)


If New York Governor Andrew Cuomo wants 30,000 ventilators I think he should get 300,000 ventilators. regardless of what Trump wants. Trump is leading the American People into a fantasy on this and That's a mistake. Don't you think so? Think about it.

 

I am not. Every attempt to predict the future relies on assumptions.

 

Germany is immediately behind Italy and Japan is older. That explanation is insufficient to explain the mortality rates.

https://www.prb.org/which-country-has-the-oldest-population/

 

Your assumption and predictions are dead.

Network news reports 265 deaths just today, almost 1460 total, when we had only one on March 1.

Please, my friends: this is no hoax, we are living in The Time of Love and Death in the Land of Coronavirus.

None of us have been in this country before.

Let's ALL listen to the scientific facts and do what must be done.

 

Oh Dear God. Does any of you believe that We'll get through this? How many more lives will we have to lose before we reach the peak? Or if we'll see the peak?

 

Take your own advice.

Dont pawn your chart onto me .. I quoted directly from the study involved in it... Aka i read more then a headline.

 

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/covid-19-deaths-so-far-where-is-the-crisis.php

 

Please do not continue to spread this type of nonsense.

This virus is objectively more lethal and spreads easier than the average global flu.

 

How does this woman still have her job?


https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/1234298344329093121

 

The death rate is as shown on the chart is factual. Stop the hysteria.