An idea of what needs to be done to get the nation back to work

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Quantum Nerd, Mar 28, 2020.

  1. jdog

    jdog Banned

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    First off, you need to understand this economy was heading south before the virus came along. I will not attempt to explain the economic / business cycle here, but suffice to say we were due for a long term recession. The yield curve had already inverted showing the need for short term financing by zombie companies.
    Debt ratios were already at record levels, along with asset valuations. Income has not been keeping pace with inflation, and delinquency rates were beginning to show stress in the economy. Trade was decreasing and we were seeing recessions starting in other countries already. Chain stores have been closing down at record numbers affecting malls and other retail property.
    The economic cycle ends when asset valuations are no longer credible and the debt levels to support those valuations are no longer sustainable.
    You see, asset values are "perceived" which is to say, they are what ever people believe they are. The debt incurred to purchase the asset however is absolute, and its value is static. Late in a economic cycle, perceived asset values tend to become unreasonable due to the fact that inflation keeps pushing up asset prices due to the belief they will continue to increase in value, and the fact that credit creates inflation. So when you think your house is worth $500K and you owe $400K and it then falls in value to $300K, you are probably broke..
    The virus has now made a bad situation into a immediate crisis. 30% unemployment is higher than the Great Depression. Some lower income people will be able to survive the immediate situation due to unemployment and the government checks. Higher income people will have it much harder. If you have 10K in monthly expenses $600 or even $1200 doesn't really help much. Small business owners are eligible for low interest loans, but if you have $30K a month is overhead, just how much debt will you accumulate to try to keep going before you throw in the towel? How many bars, restaurants, and other small businesses that were barely surviving to begin with are just not going to make it. When this is over, and people are told to go back to work, many will not have work to go back to.
    Those who do, will find their employer is now under extreme pressure to cut costs in order to make up for lost business and increased debt levels. The emphasis for most businesses going forward from here will be cutting expense to the bone, and the biggest expense for most is payroll.
    If you think we are going back to the way things were a few weeks ago, you are in for a disappointment. The world is now a different place.
     
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  2. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Oh yeah. And China.
    It's what success really looks like.
     
  3. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Really :) That's your idea of success.. They successfully put the world in a shitbath and you and I in quarantine. Oh you and your hero's..
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
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  4. Texan

    Texan Well-Known Member

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    For most of us, this disease is a flu or some other simple disease that we will beat without breaking a sweat. We need to use this down time to protect our elderly. Isolate the nursing homes and use stimulus funds to sequester the nursing home staff. We can make sure that our elderly are isolated at home and have people assigned to take care of them. Then we go back to work. After 8 weeks, everybody will have either had the virus and recovered or will be getting medical care. The system shouldn't be overloaded with our vulnerable isolated in safety. Once the country has developed a herd immunity, we let the vulnerable back out in public. Any elderly or at risk people who would rather take their chances can gamble with their lives.

    The country gets back to work, we put this virus behind us until next year or the next, and our elderly are safe and can get a vaccine for it next year. There will be casualties, but not in the numbers we're looking at now.
     
  5. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Don't go batshit. We all know now that's not good for you.
    I call it success when you beat it. I call it failure when you Trump it up.
     
  6. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    Well, if he is just being realistic, why is he not telling the American people the truth? Basically, we have a choice between going back to work soon and potentially saving the economy (or not) and accepting death 10,000s or more people, or staying in lockdown, saving lives with the potential of harder economic times? I haven't heard any of realistic adult talk by him, what I heard is peddling a lot of false hope and accusations of political motivation of the other side.
     
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  7. ImNotOliver

    ImNotOliver Well-Known Member

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    Yet if all the stores are closed...
     
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  8. Robert E Allen

    Robert E Allen Banned

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    Even if we had locked down 3 weeks ago those 10s of thousands still would have died.
    This virus is going to work it's way through the whole population.
     
  9. ImNotOliver

    ImNotOliver Well-Known Member

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    Grocery stores charge money for food. The more the economy is moving, the more money there is for food.
     
  10. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    If that's what Trump's position is, why doesn't he tell this to the people?
     
  11. Robert E Allen

    Robert E Allen Banned

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    I have no idea what Trump's position is, i figure the president with no medical training is probably a bad place to look for answers.

    Why anyone would expect him to have the answers is beyond me and why people would be mad at him for not having the answers is kinda insane.
     
  12. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    He is the CIC. He should integrate the information from the doctors, the economists, and everyone else, and then come up with the best strategy and be frank with the American people. That's what a true leader would do. I don't know why having that expectation sounds "insane" to you. He is expected to have the answers.

    Instead, he is more concerned about his reelection success and that the media make him look bad.
     
  13. Robert E Allen

    Robert E Allen Banned

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    He is the CIC and has properly delegated the development of plans to people who know more than he does.

    The media is doing everything they can to keep him from being reelected he should be blasting them every chance he gets as they are behaving dispicably, calling a spade a spade is good leadership.
     
  14. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Right! You have a clue what's going on in Chiner ATM, and it aint pretty! Although it is what most leftist are dreaming bout :)

    [​IMG]

    Your hero's at work, God only knows what they are squirting their lemmings with LMFAO.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  15. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    It's disinfectant..
    We could do that too except we ran out.
    How is it they can build a fleet these and we can't build a few ventilators?
     
  16. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Ya I'm sure it is Ron the chiners have always been perfectly straight with the world.. My question is, would you want to take a stroll thru it or have it seeping into your dwelling.. I also notice no birds, dogs around in the day pics. Then again they might have all been someone last meal too LOLOL
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  17. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Much better than the DDT they sprayed when I was a kid.
    I kind of like the smell of Lysol.
     
  18. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Well that certainly cleared up a lot of question I had ;)

    Thanks..
    Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  19. Nightmare515

    Nightmare515 Ragin' Cajun Staff Member Past Donor

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    Nobody knows what to do because even medical experts don't have enough data to do anything more than speculate.

    The President is doing the best he can with the information WE ALL have. We have to think realistically here and strike a balance between public safety and logic. Folks have to understand that neither the nation, nor the world, can operate like this indefinitely. The government can't just pay all of your bills for you for "as long as it takes", basic elementary economics explains that pretty easily. We don't have infinite money, we can't just print more money, and the government can't just whip up a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package every month until this is all over.

    Folks keep trying to paint Trump in a bad light as if they could do any better with the information we currently have. What exactly are we supposed to do right now? What are some REALISTIC courses of action we can take going forward? I keep hearing people bash Trump for saying he wants to hopefully begin re-opening the economy next month. "He'd rather kill hundreds of thousands of Americans just to save his stupid economy!!!"

    What CHOICE do we have? What part of this do people not understand? You can't just lockdown the entire country, the President doesn't have the power to do that anyway. We can't just have the majority of the nation not working, the government can't AFFORD to give everybody 1200 bucks a month forever. That isn't realistic. What are people supposed to do when that 1200 one time check runs out? What if it takes 3 more months to flatten the curve? 6 months? A year? Is 1200 dollars enough money to sustain a family for that time? What happens when that money runs out are we going to just snap our fingers and come up with another 2 TRILLION dollar package to send out to everyone? Are we dropping off MRE pallets in the streets to feed people who ran out of that 1200 dollars and have no more money left for food?

    Whether folks want to hear it or not when conjuring up strategy there IS something called acceptable risk. If Trump decides to accept governors keeping most states in a state of lockdown for the next few months then are the people who would praise him still be praising him when that 1200 stimulus check runs out? Will you "understand" when that money runs dry that we can't just give out ANOTHER 2 TRILLION DOLLAR package to help you? Will they blame Trump for not magically coming up with money out of thin air to hand out to everybody again come May 1st? Yes most likely.

    What do people honestly expect him to do? These decisions seem pretty easy for Americans who are on government payrolls or retirement and are still getting paid right now. It's not so easy for the millions of American hourly wage workers who at the stroke of a pen were put out of work and now have to figure out how in the actual hell they are supposed to live right now with a one time check for 1200 bucks thats supposed to last them "indefinitely".
     
  20. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    All of the stores are not closed though. Or are you being disingenuous?
     
  21. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    What else would it be for?
     
  22. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    What else would it be for?
     
  23. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    No, that won't work. Our healthcare systems will collapse if everyone gets it within an eight week period. Guaranteed. We need to get it over a twelve month period, or more.
     
  24. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but the point of the lockdown is to SLOW it down. Health systems cannot cope if we all get it at once. They're already struggling in many places.
     
  25. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Right. But isn't the underlying purpose to keep people fed?
     
  26. Robert E Allen

    Robert E Allen Banned

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    And there is nothing we could have done to change that.
     

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