Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed tracker shows

the market just fell 666 points, did you miss that?

 

especially when a Republican party that wants those on social security to get less and have to be older to get it

 

Did a beast rise from the sea?

 

Not at all corrections are to be expected.

 

Or especially when those who scrimped and saved all their lives only to be told they saved too much so their SS will be cut when the Democrats means test it?

BTW a Democrat House passed the current increases in the retirement age

 

Oh my, Bluesguy ... looks like your Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for Q1 2018 has been falling faster than the republicans' chances of holding on to their gerrymandered House this fall.

Now down to just 1.8%

Where is this republican tax-reform trickle-down economic 'miracle'?????

https://twitter.com/AtlantaFed/status/974670902045609985

 

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

The Wall Street/donor/"job creator" class will do just fine under all administrations. A cabal of Goldman Sachs execs is always in the chite house regardless of electoral outcomes. Nothing has changed at all, just as would have been the case had Hillary "won". That's how the system works.

 

As a data analyst I would be interested why their model is that wrong. And how far off in general it normally is. If you are predicting something 3 times higher than it is generally, not in an isolated case you need to change your estimation tool or accept you not estimate it.

 

prediction is now 1.8%

 

Why would you be off that much? we are not talking about predictions years in advance.

 

GDPNow posts their predictions as the data comes in during the quarter. So, this 1/4, the first data points came in great - so they were WAY up there to start. But as more data came in, it was obviously not very good, so the prediction went down.

That is why you NEVER take their initial prediction seriously - whether good or bad - unless you do not understand what GDPNow does (like the people who early in this thread assumed the 5.4% guess was for the whole quarter - ).

 

i think they want a raise from Trump

 

That makes sense. In time series which I work with you want a minimum of 48 consecutive data points although I am guessing this is not time series.

 

Frankly, considering how GDPNow (the Fed Atlanta) tabulates this...I don't really see the point of it. What is the point in posting a GDP growth prediction based on a tiny fraction of all the quarterly data?
They do have a very good track record of estimating the GDP Growth a few weeks before it is released. I think they should just stick to that - post it when almost all the data is in.
Though again, what the point is - I am not sure.

 

that's not the rules of the game now is it?
and if the rules were popular vote chooses the winner Trump would have campaigned different his game plan word have been different he would have visited and campaigned in New York and California

Wouldn't a football coach have a different game plan play the game different if the most yardage gained won the game not points scored?

so what your doing is just dishonest assumptions you cant honestly say Trump would have lost the election if popular vote won if those were the rules from the start

 

This gauge can over-measure manufacturing and miss the subtraction of our trade deficit. But, even half that, isn't bad!

 

The point in releasing incomplete data is probably a political gesture. The tax cuts rely on 3-4% growth to pay for itself. Saying the growth rate is >2%, the same as it has been for years and has been predicted for years to come, doesn't satisfy the political narrative and rationale about the tax cut adding $1.5Trillion to the debt.

 

LOL...

 

OK I will ask you what proof do you have that Trump wouldn't have won the popular vote if those were the rules from the start?

 

I doubt the fed would get in the political game of choice. I have read some of their analysis, its highly technical.

And there little a president can do to threaten them

 

MAGA

​

 

So...looks like we juuuuuuust barely missed it.

Gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of goods and services produced in the US – rose at an annual rate of 2.3% from January through March, the commerce department said on Friday.

 

And CBO just raised it's projections for Q4-Q4 to 3.3%. As said well we may not get that high but the road ahead sure looks good, better than the last 10 years for sure. The big thing now is to get able-bodied people back into the workforce and the LFPR rate down to average levels. Thank you Republicans starting in 2015 to reverse government policy and attitudes towards the economy and the working people in this country.

Where do you disagree?

 

I disagree with overreacting to proj3ctions of what the GDP will be one year BEFORE those numbers get measured.