Keep drinking the kool-aid. The Election isn't "unpredictable". It is ALREADY baked for Hillary. If these recent revelations marginally affect her vote, it might cost her a state or 2 (at worst). Anybody who thinks that Trump has a prayer, or thinks that Comey's recent letter is gong to affect the ultimate election of Hillary is clearly delusional. There has already been lot of early voting, the " email" thing is already baked in to people's decisions and there isn't enough truly undecided voters to tip the scale to Trump. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, even though it is wrong. Looking forward to talking on Nov.9th. Peace.
Likewise. Either way November 9 is going to be glorious. I have drunk no cool aid. I support Gary Johnson. If practically all the media, literally all academics, most reps on both sides weren't frothing at the mouth over the possibility of a Trump presidency I'd likely not even be here talking about him. As it stands a lot of these talking heads are spewing irrational propaganda to advance their agenda. If Alex Jones talks (*)(*)(*)(*)(usually) I call him out on it. If the NYT talks (*)(*)(*)(*) I do the same.
That was what they said about both Truman and Reagan...If the polls are infected by either pollster bias (oversampling dems) or the Bradley effect (telling the pollsters what the want to hear but voting another way. Most recent example was BREXIT), then the polls are largly crap...besides, with a week to go all the tides are flowing in trumps direction. Clinton has been losing 5-8 points in just the last 10 days before the FBI story.
Normally I'd be right with you and protect your right to a third party vote, but this election is a question of ethics. We need to reject unethical behavior first and foremost.
Here's an interesting article from 538 on October Surprises. They don't matter as much as most people think. Of course everything new that happens if a game changer according to the pundits. But 90% of the time they are dead wrong. I wouldn't say Hillary is a lock, but she is right close. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-do-october-surprises-move-the-polls/ I heard on Sunday that 17 million Americans already voted early. That is roughly 13% of the total expected 130 million votes. No matter what unforeseen even that takes place between now and election day, there is no recalling of those ballots. I dread the idea of a Hillary Clinton Presidency, but when the Republicans nominated Trump, they handed her the keys to the White House. They are responsible.
Another interesting development, according to Rasmussen in Utah it is Trump 32%, McMullen 29%, Clinton 28%, Johnson 4%. The margin of error is plus or minus four points, so Utah is a dead heat tie between Trump, McMullen and Clinton. The latest poll out of Alaska by Carciun Research has it Clinton 47%, Trump 43%. Lake gives Trump a 3 point lead in October and Moore has Trump up by only one. Averaging all three October polls, Alaska is dead even. Other red states, Arizona Trump by one over Clinton, Texas Trump by three over Clinton. If Utah, Alaska, Arizona and Texas are all in play, I think that sums up the situation in the states pretty good regardless of where the popular vote stands.
I'm only one more night's sleep from making my prediction. I am sure I've already made up my mind, but I'm going to be meticulous and wait until tomorrow morning in the timezone where I live so that it is exactly one week before I'm watching the election returns.
So Congress is going GOP. More than a hundred years on and nothing has changed. (Political Cartoon) "The Bosses of the Senate" (1889): When will we ever learn? Maybe we could start here: Who Rules the Global Economy?. Excerpt: What does "market concentration" mean. It means what economists call "sticky pricing". That is, there is no overt price collusion. It's just that when a market is consolidated, companies "settle in" to a pricing structure that has a dominant entity, and all the rest align their prices to the dominant market-company. Meaning what? This: There is no real competition! (Ie., you, the customer, are getting "stiffed".) You think you are getting the cheapest price at whatever "best retailer"; when, in fact, you are paying for just the opposite. That is, a "comparatively fixed-price". You can't say you were "never told" ... but do think about it on election day. NB: And please none of the "It's all fixed anyway". It isn't fixed until you vote the Replicant "fixers" into majority control of either chamber in Congress. And if the PotUS is of the same party as Congress, well - try moving to Canada ... ?
Though I would like to believe what you write, I can find no solace in the present sampling of pre-election_day trends. What makes you so sure? Let's see some "hard data" to support your forecast ...
You missed the timeline...that was my prognostication s bit before the 2014 election and I was spot on...This time pretty sure about the Congress but less sanguine about the big prize.
It IS a people's democracy. And what they want they get. Even if it means getting shafted. Not much one can do about it until the really stoopid die-off and the younger generation hopefully gets more educated. It'll happen, but take a lot longer than anyone anticipated* ... *The Roman Empire was the first really affluent economy (with a set of laws as well as significant inter-empire trading) and lasted about 400 years. But it too was undone by connivance at the top and the same venality that drives our own plutocrats today ...
OK. Today I am going to put my abilities to the test and predict that Drumpf will win the Presidential election. It's not a conclusion I came to easily as up until recently I thought Clinton would offset Drumpf's sweep of the swing states by winning North Carolina but now with the polls narrowed, that is no longer the case. The reason Drumpf is going to win is because this election has always been about making the other candidate look worse and not about ideas. At the moment Clinton is on the defensive and there is no more time to divert attention back to Drumpf's issues. As to the lopsided demographic advantage to Clinton, that will not help because ironically this will be an election with the highest turnout in decades and will beat 2008 when the turnout was 57%. The extra votes Drumpf gets to offset the Clinton advantage in non-whites, women and young people is the working class white male vote that has not voted in a long time and he will win that demographic overwhelmingly. Now about the electoral college. The polls are narrowing plus Clinton in on the defensive about some email thing, so that means Drumpf will sweep all the swing states plus add New Hampshire and an electoral vote in Maine. I predict New Hampshire and part of Maine going to Drumpf because of the demographics Drumpf is winning over plus the lack of polls there. Others may disagree but I'm still giving Pennsylvania to Clinton because of her persistent lead there in the polls plus historic trends. Now even if Clinton were to win Colorado or Nevada, that will not be enough to pull ahead of Drumpf in the electoral college. She would have to win BOTH. Finally about an electoral college tie. The House of Representatives is safely in Republican control so that means Drumpf needs to only win 269 electoral votes. Clinton needs 270. So the truth is there is more ways for Drumpf to win than we assume. I will be very happy if I'm wrong, but here you go. This is my prediction.
I usually go state by state, paying no attention to electoral counts until I add them up at the end. In 1988 I predicted Bush 39-11. It was 40-10. I was badly wrong in the 2 3-way races in the 90s because so many states swung on Perot and that should happen this year. Do you see the presence of other candidates being the reason some states might go red or some other demographic? To make it easy look perhaps at the 2004 Bush win and see which states might vary. New Hampshire is against Hillary primarily because they want Hassan or Ayotte to be President and a Hillary win will make that unthinkable. Maine's fourth vote could go to a third candidate. Also that guy in Utah will either win outright, make Hillary the winner or make Trump win by a nose instead of the usual 75%. Is there any local candidate like him somewhere else. Did the guy who took lots of West Virginia votes in the primary go on that ballot? My only prediction is a protest on the day after, possibly to the point of Civil War.
Agreed. I think this one is going to end.... VERY BADLY. I'm sort of terrified of what will happen when the votes are in and the candidate selected.
