Five poll numbers that should make Democrats uneasy

There is even a better Idea for the Democrats.....its called get the **** out of the Country. While you can!

 

The incumbent party almost always takes a hit in the midterms. It's not a matter of whether or not the Republicans take a hit, but how bad the hit will be. While Trump's leadership is certainly a factor, most politics are local. American voters across the land will vote based on their satisfaction with their own House Representative, not Trump.

 

The Democrats have a shot at the House in November 2018. Here is a breakdown of Representatives who are strong and who are vulnerable;

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

 

Shattered? That's quite a strong word for Trump winning Pennsylvania by seven tenths of a percentage point or 43,000 votes out of 5.8 million cast. Kind of strong with Trump winning Michigan by two tenths of a single percentage point or 10,000 votes.

One must remember two things, Quite a lot of sanders voters didn't show up to vote and the third party vote was exceptionally high in those two states because those who voted third party didn't like either major party candidate.

I wouldn't use the word shattered, that is hyperbolic to say the least. A breakthrough, yes. Shattered no. One also must remember it was Trump vs. Clinton in those states, not GOP congressional candidates vs. Democratic ones. Both Trump and Clinton were seen with extra high unfavorable ratings or negative views of the electorate on both. Both Trump and Clinton set a record for the lowest favorable rating of any candidates since FDR when Gallup and Pew Research began keeping track of these thing. 36% and 38% is nothing to be proud of even if one of them won. Only two presidential candidate ever had a favorable rating below 50% until the Trump vs. Clinton match up. Goldwater at 43% in 1964 and G.H.W. Bush in 1992 at 46%.

Hillary won't be around this year to rescue the Republicans. I don't think most Republicans or avid Trump supporters realize how much independents dislike the persona of Trump. His obnoxious behavior and talk more akin to a cat house owner than a president. But we'll see.

 

Ah yes another polling thread. Pretty sure there are some conservative commentators here that have recently dismissed polls they don't like in other threads, or even attacked the very concept of polling itself.

I'm sure these polls are totally reliable and correct though.

 

Usually in a sea change election, the minority party managed to make the midterms national. That happen in 1994, 2006 and 2010. By sea change I mean with 30 or more seats switching parties. Yes, the old adage of "I like my congressman, it is the other 434 that is the problem," usually applies. But I have a feeling it will be Trump's persona front and center come November instead of local issues. No one likes either congressional party today. Go to question 79A and 79B.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wtt95as3fo/econTabReport.pdf

You'll see nationally only 35% of all Americans have a favorable view of Democrats in congress, 50% unfavorable while Republican congressional delegation is seen positive by only 25% of all Americans vs. 59% unfavorable. The question is which way will independents, the non-affiliated go? They don't like either congressional party, they down right dislike both. Independents give Democrats only 19% positive vs. 53% negative while giving Republicans in congress 16% favorable vs. 54% negative. Will they even bother to vote?

 

The GOP steadfastly ignores unmistakeable warning signs of a pending disaster. A major tremor came early in Trump’s presidency with the global Woman’s March. This was a breathtaking historical event that heralded the rise of women’s power in politics. An ongoing tsunami is the rapidly shifting demographics away from white men to women and minority voters. This has created a growing percentage Independent voters moving decidedly toward Democrats. Young voters (18-35) overwhelming register either Democrat or Independent.

In every special election held in 2017, Republicans gave up their seats to Democratic challengers - sometimes by huge margins. Massive turnout by the aforementioned groups swung the elections away from the GOP. The low approval of president Trump has been a major factor in driving this trend. His base of support holds steadfastly at 32-37% of voters. Trump has neither desire or plan to enlarge his base to include the remaining 65% of Americans.

The clouds of the Mueller investigation hangs over the administration like a gathering storm. Trump’s continued focus on collusion with Russians is like a rabbit sitting comfortably on a railroad track ignoring the train emerging from the fog. Mueller has long since moved from the Russians to money laundering, illegal foreign business dealings, profiteering from the office, and obstruction of justice.

These facts are hard to ignore and a dozen GOP representatives have seen the coming train and retired from office. They know the GOP is headed for disaster in 2018 and wanted no part of the wreckage.

 

Brutal: Poll Spells Big Trouble For Dems With White Working Class Voters.....

I'm glad you said that. Now you can pass the Charmin around to the leftness. But remember.....Don't squeeze it like Mr Whipple.

 

Not to mention many democrat voters are being deported because they are illegal aliens. Will obama encourage them to vote this time also?

 

Those who "don't trust polls" usually quickly tout polls they in which they agree. The fact remains all political campaigns and political parties use polling. Polling is a science; but like science, there are polls which are well done and use solid methodology and then there's the pay-for-hire polls like "4-out-of-5-doctors-like-Marlboro". Smart, educated people know the difference.

 

All good points. Although I agree Trump's persona and Presidency are factors, but, going back to local politics, I think it's the relationship between their Rep and Trump which will be the main player. The relationship may be conciliatory or confrontational depending upon the view of the voters.

As for Independents, in system where they do not feel represented, they would probably be inclined to vote against the incumbent, regardless of party. If they feel represented or appreciate the status quo from their Rep, the answer is obvious.

 

If they lose enough elections, they'll figure out which side of the bread the butter is on.

 

Very true about independents. They have a long history of siding with the party out of power, the one who doesn't hold the White House. Especially in the first midterm. It could be as a candidate, the president makes all these promises that go unfulfilled. The hope that things would get better and problems be solved go poof as it remains business as usual. Here is a list at the number of seats each president lost in their first midterm.


Obama lost 63 seats in 2010
Bush gained 8 seats in 2002 But lost 33 seats in 2006
Clinton lost 54 seats in 1994
Bush lost 8 seats in 1990
Reagan lost 26 seats in 1982
Carter lost 15 seats in 1978
Nixon lost 12 seats in 1970
LBJ lost 47 seats in 1966
JFK lost 22 seats in 1962
Eisenhower lost 18 seats in 1954
Truman lost 28 seats in 1950
FDR gained 11 seats in 1934

Only the second Bush since FDR didn't lose seats. But Bush had 9-11 happen which unified the country behind him and his party. Interestingly, Bush lost 33 seats in his second midterm. I haven't researched the numbers, but I would wager the reason for the congressional losses are independents switching from voting for the president in his election year to voting for the party out of power in the midterm. I imagine Republicans and Democrats vote for their party's candidates.

 

Would that be Apple Butter?

 

Good job on the numbers. As for Bush 41's second midterm one factor was that the Iraq war was not going as promised. Voters were seeing it as a second Vietnam. Agreed the Independents are the "Deciders" (<- GW Bush term).

 

It's whatever butter the majority of Americans like.

 

What about those that can't believe its butter. But its not!

 

Like those Liberals who are on a diet or don't believe in dairy? It could be a problem.

 

Exactly. Especially since those who affiliate or identify with the two parties are shrinking. I think we can see more sea change elections in the future because of this. We've had 3 of them since 1994. 1994, 2006 and 2010. We went from 1948 to 1994 in-between sea change elections, then bang, 3 in 16 years and if I read the tea leafs rights, a fourth in 2018. In 1948 78% of the electorate identified with the two major parties, independents made up only 19% of the electorate. 46% identified as Democrats, 32% as Republicans. Move forward to 1994, you were down to 32% Democrat, 30% Republican and 34% independent. Begin the sea change revolution so to speak as independents finally grew bigger than either major party. Today as of December 2017, you have 27% Democrat, 25% Republican and 46% independent. The highest number of independents since Gallup and Pew Research began keeping track of these things.

 

And then there was that Special Election in Wisconsin in a solid red district won by a Dem the other day

 

From looking at all the numbers, I do think the tea leaves at this point in time point to a huge Democratic success in the midterms. Although there is plenty of time left for that to change. I doubt that the numbers will change much due to the Trump persona factor. I say that because the mood of the country is much more positive than Trump's 39% approval number. Here is an interesting article from Gallup to explain what I mean:

Trump Approval Lower Than U.S. Mood Might Predict

http://news.gallup.com/poll/225467/...utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

 

you mean "scare the establishment".

 

JakeStarkey said: Trump cannot change what he is, so he will keep doing what he does - scare the American people.

They are a part of the American people, yes.

 

In light of the current situation for dems...they better like apples.