Live! NH Primary Real-Time results for Rep/Dem!

Wait, I thought Kasich wasn't going negative in NH. I guess they decided to do so on Election Day w/ door knockers.
1:30 PM - 09 Feb 2016.....snip~

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/live-coverage-all-day-all-night-new-hampshire-194829115.html

 

That's a given....but deserves stating. As long as it's Trump, Cruz, and 3-4 Establishment Guys (Rubio, Kasich, Bush, Christie)....Trump can win on his plurality.

And the GOP Primaries are "front-loaded" with most of the heavy delegate States at the beginning.

The RNC did that on purpose to make for a "faster primary"....given Romney had to waste so much time fighting Santorum in 2012. But that strategy is blowing up in their face....ready to see Trump or Cruz (both disasters for the GOP) able to quickly become the Nominee.

 

Looks like Carly is taking Gilmores 3 voters.

btw polls close in 4 hours 25 mins

 

Looks like Gorn answered it for me ....

If not down to 3 by the time we get to the winner-take-all states after Mar 15, Trump could run the table never getting more than 40% of the vote. If down to 3, or less, then I don't know.

 

Nah, one establishment likely will drop after today. Estbl wont waste time being behind jeb or rubio fully.

 

One...maybe....but Kasich will stay in, Rubio will stay in, JEB! will stay in (hoping for a comeback in Florida on Super Tuesday)....

that only leaves...........Governor Ralph Kramden.

 

Here's the cool thing.....if you're a Democrat or D leaner....

With three on Super Tuesday or afterwards? It'll never be anything more than "pluraity wins". Say it's Rubio.....he'll get 40%, Trump will get 30%, and Cruz gets 30%. Rubio wins the Primary.

But that means that the GOP Nominee will only have plurality popularity in his own Party....a MAJORITY of the Party won't like him.

 

If Jeb crashes SC he likely will drop before ST.

 

We might be in for the two wildest conventions in our nation's history, Cap'n.

If no Republican can get a majority of votes in the primaries, the GOP nomination will be resolved on the floor of the RNC.

If Hillary gets indicted before July, the Democratic nomination will get resolved on the floor of the DNC.

And a LOT of people on both sides of the aisle will be howling to high heaven about it.

Maybe I am finally ready to move to Canada...

 

its not a given that every drop out will hurt trump. I mean some of carsons support may go his way and maybe even some of fiorinas.

 

None of Carsons support will go to Trump, theres a reason they both were close for a bit.

Also Carly has support?

 

Hil LIAR y 's chauffeur !

 

Maybe.....depends on how much embarrassment he can stand. A <4th place showing tonight would be damning...but the big goof would probably still stay in.

 

1. Dubious about a GOP "Brokered" Convention.....if it finally came down to it, they'd suck it up, let Trump run....but knee-cap his campaign and have other Repubs (House, Senate, Governorships) distance even repudiate him as he started supporting single-payer, pro-choice, whatever.

Actively sabotage their own Nominee....rather than see him win and destroy the "conservative movement".

2. I've been hearing for TWO DECADES that a Clinton was "going to lose an election" or "going to jail"......and it never has actually happened.


3. Why would a Far Right conservative move to "pinko Canada"? I figure you'd move to one of those Caribbean "no income tax" places like The Caymans or Belize?

- - - Updated - - -

Given Carson's dust-up with Cruz.....a Trump endorsement when Doc Stabby quits, isn't impossible.

 

From the National Journal Hotline's Adam Wollner, the amount of time each candidate has spent in New Hampshire since November of 2014. You can see why tonight's results are so important to the future prospects of both John Kasich and Chris Christie:

Adam Wollner [MENTION=1787]Adam[/MENTION]Wollner

Days in NH (11/5/14-2/9/16)

Christie: 75
Kasich: 70
Graham: 67
Fiorina: 59
Bush: 55
Rubio: 37
Paul: 31
Cruz: 30
Trump: 28
Carson: 17



Adam Wollner
[MENTION=1787]Adam[/MENTION]Wollner

And for the Democrats >

Sanders: 39
Clinton: 35
O'Malley: 29.....snip~

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/live-coverage-all-day-all-night-new-hampshire-194829115.html



Christie put all that time in there, and now is out lashing at all around him. He knows he is done.

Someone stick a pin in him and release all that hot air.

 

So if the eleventh hour analysis is correct, and Rubio's post-New Hampshire standing is a major cipher to unlocking the dynamics of the remainder of the race, what can we expect from him this evening? His team has begun downplaying the risky "3-2-1" strategy we wrote about late last month, with the candidate emphasizing slow but steady delegate accumulation. Is that a sign that they're pre-spinning what they now expect to be a third-place or worse result tonight? Or is it the same sort of sly expectations management that undeniably contributed to the "Marcomentum" media boomlet after Iowa? We'll soon find out.


Rick Klein
&#10004; &#8206;@rickklein
NH event counter: Kasich 165, Christie 133, Bush 94, Rubio 78, Cruz 59. (Trump 33) via @aabramson
1:09 PM - 9 Feb 2016.....snip~

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2016/02/09/here-we-go-new-hampshire-votes-n2117054

 

You make a couple of incorrect assumptions. The primary one being that if one candidate only has a plurality, that they will be disliked by the supporters of the others. Plurality or not, the likes and or dislikes of other candidates coalesces the same around an eventual nominee.

 

Yeah, with half the Dems hating Hillary.

 

I'm already beginning to think his candidacy won't survive the RNC, much less the primaries. I started a thread on this a few moments ago.

I don't see it getting that far, myself.

Uh..she has already lost an election, and she hasn't had to deal with an investigation like this one before. We'll see what happens...

I consider myself a conservatarian, Cap'n, but that's a good question. I've always had a fondness for Vancouver, but with all the Global Warming headed our way this week The Caymans and Belize so sound a lot more appealing right now.

 

If you don't have an ID in New Hampshire, you have to fill out one of these and take a pic like this to vote......snip~

 

Expecting 30 areas to report before poll closing. That should give us an idea of trends when the rest of the precincts vote.

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/new-h...2016/02/rubio-bots-hot-on-rubios-trail-219021

Lol people dressing like robots at Rubio lines.

The debate had a bigger effect than previously thought.

But then again we need to dispel this myth Rubiobot does not know what he is doing. He knows exactly what he is doing.

 

According to NBC NH dem voters want a president that's more lbetal
what's more liberal than Bernie? Mao Ze Dong?

 

OK. If Bernie wins by 16 or more, and Trump by 12 or more, then both are big winners, keeping good momentum moving forward.

 

I see it trump by 10 points and Sanders by 15...the next two slots for the GOP are a cipher.