My 2020 prediction

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Qohelet, Mar 30, 2019.

  1. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    Oh, if the candidate is Hillary, Trump would beat her again.

    It won't be her, of course, and most any of the Dem candidates can easily beat him.
     
  2. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Before this drifts too far from my post I need to point out a few things.
    Someone offered a poll about Democrats holding Maine and New Hampshire. That might work but it's faulty.
    Hillary won New Hampshire in Hassan's coattails. That won't help in 2020. Maine has new laws that could make it unpredictable. A lot does depend on Senator Collins. I expect she'll retire, with 3 strong candidates on the ballot. If she does run again a vote for her is not the same as a vote for Trump. In a divided state they cancel out, so a Collins/Trump vote represents neutrality. That's what I expect.
    My comments are not based on one poll but 196 years of elections. Incumbents get the benefit of the doubt unless there's a disaster in progress, usually flipping the close states from 4 years earlier. If the economy holds that pattern will hold except for local changes.
    Name a local change that can swing a Trump state (as opposed to the tossup states always in doubt).
    The red states accepted Trump as a Republican. I was not sure of that until it happened. They won't leave him easily.
    In this field the Democrats might end up with a person so blue (Communist red) that Democrats might not accept him as a Democrat. That could put places like Minnesota, New York, Illinois, Connectcutt, Rhode Island, Delaware and Hawaii in doubt.
    Throw in a third candidate with a radical agenda and you could see a 45-5 rout with fewer Trump votes than 2016.
     
  3. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    PA, MN, WI signaled in 2018 they will dump Trump in a heart beat if he does not help the working man, which he has yet to do.

    A third candidate will reduce Trump to maybe eight states.
     
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  4. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    That analysis falls under the argument that "anything is possible".

    The most likely scenario is that (with the exceptions of PA, MI, and WI) most of the states will land in the same column.

    In other words, just like in 2016, whichever candidate wins those 3 states will be elected.

    Thus if the Dems CAN flip those 3 states back to Blue, the Dems will win.
     
  5. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    This attempt to convince BLOTUS supporters that he could flip both NH and Maine is sheer desperation given that PA, WI and MI flipped to Blue in 2018 and there is nothing that the BLOTUS can do to get them back.

    The Dems stand a chance of flipping NC, GA and AZ with TX being an outlier depending entirely on the Dem candidate and the GOTV amongst Hispanics. The latter 3 states are only red because of minority voter suppression and that is NOT going to be allowed to occur in 2020.
     
  6. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    Here is how it stacks up at this point:

    Vote %:
    The democrat candidate: 30%
    Independent Howard Shultz:15%
    President Trump: 55%

    Hahaha!
     
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  7. Homer J Thompson

    Homer J Thompson Banned

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    My prediction is........... Pain
     
  8. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    pain . . . for Trump indeed
     
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  9. Homer J Thompson

    Homer J Thompson Banned

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    I'd lock the medicine chests and bolt the windows at your place if I were you.
     
  10. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    You are not me, and I am not afraid like you. :)
     
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  11. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    yes i do. i want to cut off the reason they come here. I have tons of sympathy for someone wanting to improve the lives of their family even to the extent of breaking the law. i nothing but contempt for employers who seek to take advantage of illegals by paying less wages than the competition to get an unfair advantage.
     
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  12. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    For sure. A biden harris booker Klobuchar are just as bad from my perspective. The want to keep obamacare to keep the drug and pharma money coming. and loved Libya and syria.None of them have even spoken out about nuclearizing saudi arabia, the birthplace of 9-11
     
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  13. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    The border problem will cease to be a problem once ownership and management are seriously punished for knowingly hiring illegals.
     
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  14. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I apologize since to me, that approach makes no sense at all.

    Take advantage you say? First as I said, the bulk of employers are exempt from that law. Second it causes HR personnel to get arrested. Third it turns firms into a law enforcement agency and unpaid at that.
     
  15. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    From what Law? I want a new national ID card with real time smart card technology. You don't have a card, no job.
    Economic deportation. if a person or a family has been here for 5 years and has worked and not been on the public teat, I would let them stay, no path to citizenship for them however, that is forfeited for coming here illegally.

    To help placate some on the left, this card will have you registered to vote, so the issue with repubs making it difficult for some poor to register will be done away with.
     
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  16. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The law on the books for a very long time that punishes companies for hiring illegals. That law.

    Those ID cards would be nice if Democrats did not prevent them, and they have. Why register illegals to vote? That does not placate me.
     
  17. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    Make stockholders, employers, and management subject to the law.

    HR personnel will not be arrested if they do not know the individuals are illegals.

    Business should follow the law and report as needed. The law, for instance, creates mandatory reporters for abuse of children, the disabled, the elderly, etc.

    Business should be part of the resolution not the problem.
     
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  18. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    Both sides, have at various times, resisted mandatory e-verify cards.

    Get over it, pass the law, and use the card.
     
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  19. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    The problem with talking to the people about what really matters is that the radical Bernie/AOC leftists are fighting the Pelosi/Hillary Walls Street style leftists for control of the entire party and neither faction can agree on much of anything at all except that collectively they hate Trump. Hating Trump simply will not work for the Dem Party in regards to winning the presidency. So, yes, Trump will re-win the presidency at the end of 2020 in spite of the Mainstream Media again openly working for the DNC and their already pre-selected nominee.
     
  20. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    Reagan was not adored by Republicans -- the politicians who nowadays would be called RINOs -- he was in fact vilified by them . . . just as the same sort of 'Republican' vilifies Trump today. Conservatives liked Reagan, but not Republicans working in Washington D.C. Reagan was a political rogue and Trump is a political rogue and 'go along to get along' style politicians always hate those types.
     
  21. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure how the Left's leadership can accomplish that when so much of their time is spent vilifying Whites and especially White males and portraying White working class males as sub human for the most part. The majority of White males remain blue collar working class and they have been rejected and vilified by the Left for far too long for them to simply shrug it off and say, "Well -- so and so -- sure is speaking nice about us now, and so I guess we will forget all the bad things they've been saying about us for a couple of decades now, and vote for the Dem Party candidate."
     
  22. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    The card would not help an illegal to vote as they could not get one. The law we have on the books is not very effective, all they have to show is a SS card and one other form of ID and it is very easy to fake a drivers license to get past a HR receptionist. As Far as the dems go, if Trump agrees to use it to automatically register you to vote which he has resisted, it would go a long way for dems to sell it to other dems.
     
  23. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    That is not the way I remember it, he was greeted with skepticism by the rockefeller wing but he was not hated at all.
    Even dems such Tip O'Neil and Ted Kennedy liked him as a person.
     
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  24. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    The non-Reaganites did not "vilify" Reagan in the slightest, Gatewood. Now Reagan would indeed vilify Trump, with good reason.
     
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  25. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    If Howard Shultz runs as an independent the democrats are toast. His platform will split the party and give Trump a win.
     

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