Predicting the youth vote in 2024

I read many articles that warn Republicans that young Americans have liberal values and hate Republicans. In sum, Republicans better get the old people to the polls because all kids vote Democrat. Is this true? Is it more true than the assumption that HRC would beat Trump? Democrats better hope so.

Before you say, "Yes, studies show ...," look at this Politico article repeating the conventional wisdom about young voters, and notice the emphasis on "educated" and "college":

The Republican Party has dug itself a hole with regard to young, educated voters. Although Americans under 30 are less likely to vote than their older counterparts, they are a rapidly growing proportion of the electorate. Gen Z Americans, a cohort that includes today’s college students, now make up almost a quarter of the nation’s population. They are in line to be the nation’s most formally educated generation, with higher high school graduation rates and lower dropout rates than earlier cohorts.

But the Republican Party has done more to alienate young, college-educated voters in recent years than ever before. A nationwide poll fielded in late September by College Pulse of more than 1,500 students at 285 different colleges and universities shows that nearly three-quarters of college-age voters do not think the Republican Party represents them in any capacity. Sixty-six percent of students today cannot imagine registering as Republicans in the next 10 years, when their voices may be even stronger. And a striking 43 percent of respondents think the Republican Party is flat-out racist; only 31 percent disagree. (The poll, which we co-sponsored, was conducted by College Pulse, a firm that specializes in student polling and frequently supplies data to researchers. Their online surveys are weighted and rebalanced to reflect the national population of college students.)

Young, educated voters have favored Democratic candidates for decades, but the gap has grown much larger than before. Most revealing, perhaps: The survey showed the Republican Party has become directly associated with racist, unconstitutional attitudes that strike most students as beyond the pale. They perceive Republicans as a threat to their own future, and democracy in general.

There are some signs, however, that this damaging view is not irreparable — in part because college students don’t strongly identify with the Democratic Party. They may vote Democratic, but only 18 percent believe the party is moving in the correct direction. Democrats benefit from the widespread hatred of Republicans, but the party itself is not inspiring loyalty.

https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...y-gains-temporary-young-voter-strategy-524086

The polls are taken on college campuses, and the finance and engineering students are keeping quiet. Moreover, I see little to nothing in the article addressing the values of young mechanics, retail workers, and burger flippers who don't go to college. Don't their votes count? I suppose pollsters have to poll among college kids, because there's no single place where burger flippers congregate and express opinions about race, the economy, and the environment. But why assume they will vote the same way progressive college activists vote?

Aren't the Democrats stereotyping the young by relying so heavily on polls taken on the campuses of UT, Harvard, and Sarah Lawrence? At least there is this caveat in the article: College students are simply not as partisan as people think. They have a strong bias against the extreme positions of the current Republican Party, but they are not solid Democrats either.

Remember those young women weeping at HRC's headquarters when Trump won? They weren't just sad ... they were SHOCKED. All the polls said HRC had it in the bag. You'd think Democrats would be chastened by their disappointment, but I don't they've learned anything.

 

It would be interesting to see polled the young mechanics, retail workers and burger flippers.

 

I plan to vote independents and third parties. My cohorts can do as they like. I, however, think both parties suck and I won't be doing that lessor of two evils loss framing nonsense.

 

Very true. Young people lean left. I have 5 kids and they were all Democrats. 3 of them are on their own and pay their own bills. 2 voted for Trump and one is a Libertarian. The other two are still Democrats, but they still live at home.

 

I'm not the youth vote, but I'm trying to see if there is anything to salvage for the GOP. I'll be voting for the most reasonable candidate I can find in the 2022 GOP primaries. If it still remains a party dedicated to the overthrow of democracy/still remains the party of Trump even after 2022, then I'll probably hold my nose and register as a democrat.

 

Same as it ever was. Kids grow up and become conservative.

 

You really see the Republicans as "dedicated to the overthrow of democracy"?

 

There are a few years before they hit 60 though.

 

How can you not?

 

You mean older people can drift back to the left again? I am experiencing that myself at the moment, on certain issues. But it may just be that I'm getting tired of arguing.

 

Ha. No, I meant that voters don’t automatically become conservative on becoming adults.

 

Lets take a look at young Americans. Lets peg them at 25 and below.
What is most important to them:
Climate and social justice or jobs?
… or being the victim of a serious crime?
… or inflation?
… or being stuck in an economic rut?
… or the threat of war?
… or immigrants pushing them out of jobs?

I don’t think being “young” is as carefree today as it was before, so I think it skews the demographic more to the right. Having said that, the young vote is harder to pin down than ever.

 

Looking back, I am sure that I have had conservative values and temperament all my life. I tried to be a rebel when younger, but you've either got it or you don't. Protesters tend to embarrass me. Especially the ones with bullhorns.

 

I wouldn’t want to be a young person growing up in these times. Very frightening issues and having a degree isn’t a guarantee of work.

 

I had a professor in the 70s who wouldn't have kids for the same reason. But there has been a good reason in every single era known to me not to have kids. Catastrophe always lurks.

 

Every conservative on this forum is trying to find a reason why educated young people are fleeing the GOP.

The polls are wrong, young people are being indoctrinated in colleges etc...

 

So what are you saying attracts the youth vote to the GOP? Is Global change and racial equity pretty much it?

 

I am not unaware of those reasons. But the polls are simply not sampling the proletariat. I proved that in the OP.

Anyway, the Democratic Party is and has always been for idealists. I've been reading that the young will never vote R since Nixon and Watergate. We've had four Republican presidents since then. Do you remember how many states Michael Dukakis won in '88? Or worse, and how many States Mondale carried in '84?

 

So studies say that college educated youths who make up a quarter of the population… are more likely to vote democratic than Republican. I mean I get what you’re saying OP but you need to look at why we care about this demographic than say youths as a whole. Educated people are more likely to vote than noneducated people. It’s not that the burger clippers don’t matter, it’s that they’re not as likely to vote in elections in general. So pollsters who have limited time and energy who know this, don’t factor them in as much.

That being said we can guess opinions of no educated youths by observing changing behaviors. Like the unionization effort. Hate to say it but it looks like the youth of today who are looking at politics are going leftward.

 

Trump is dedicated to the overthrow of democracy. Those who still support him are either dedicated to the same or have decided they are fine with it. If the GOP remains the party of Trump, then yes, they are dedicated to the overthrow of democracy. If they can wash away that stain, as I hope they can and will be voting in primaries to try to encourage? No, then there's still something to salvage.

 

There are many Trump voters who honestly believed that it was they who were trying to maintain democracy. Even if they were wrong about "Stop[ping] the Steal," and I think they were wrong, they did honestly believe that Trump had been cheated. You can be wrong without being a fascist.

And there are plenty of moderate and effective Republican leaders who are not "dedicated to the overthrow of Democracy," even if Trump is, but I think that's hyperbole even as applied to Trump.

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/watch-d...-over-popular-moderates-in-scathing-critique/

 

But you can't in this case without still supporting fascism. I'm sure every fascist country had a population of people who honestly believed that the fascists were right and fell for their propaganda. Falling for fascist propaganda and supporting them does not change the fact that they are supporting fascism.

And, again, I want to make it clear that I'm NOT talking about people who previously voted for Trump. I'm talking about people who still support him after he tried to have himself installed as an unelected autocrat. You can't support that and support democracy, even if you fell for his braindead bullshit conspiracy theories.

 

How is it "hyperbole" when it is literally what he tried to do? It isn't "hyperbole" to say that someone attempted murder when they ACTUALLY attempted to murder someone.

Trump IS an extremist. It isn't extremist to criticize an extremist for being extremist.

 

But to counter those worries you mention, the promise of:

free housing,
free food,
unlimited abortions,
free health care,
universal basic income,
free college education,
and a uToPiaN society

can buy a lot of votes from the youngsters (and from older folks too, apparently.)

 

No, there is no left.


The Democratic Party gets called 'the Left,' so many people fail to notice that it is on the right.

Bill Clinton was on the right; he approved NAFTA.
Even Ronnie wreck-it Reagan didn't remove tariffs to allow car factories to be moved to Mexico to boost profits.
NAFTA is a Right-wing policy.

Barack Obama had a democratic-controlled House and a democratic-controlled Senate and Supreme Court but somehow never got around to providing a public option in healthcare despite overwhelming public support.
Joe Biden, whom people say is on the left, is fighting a proxy (still technically a proxy war) with Russia.

The Democratic Party is further to the actual right than the Republican Party is.

The only choice at present is between the honest right - the Republican Party, and the liars.