Rich people are hoarding cash, and wealth managers are getting frustrated

He has little concept of the market and economics

 

Sure it is. All that money going into bonds drives down the yield.

 

No need to say you’re sorry...I can’t help it you don’t like facts

 

If you think the world is coming to an end take your profits now.

 

Money can't go OUT of the stock market, by definition. SEC classifies a market as one bid order from a seller and one ask order from a buyer. Every seller requires a buyer; money can never actually leave the stock market...

As for "driving down yields," again, that's not how an inverted yield curve works.

 

Yes other investments, what is done with that money? Is it buried in the back yard? Is it out of the economy?

 

Ahh, a word smith.
The money normally going into the market is going into long term bonds because investors think Trump is going to force us into a recession.

 

Of course not. It's buried in long term bonds to keep it safe while Trump plays his games.
That is the subject of the thread in case you forgot.

 

I don't know why you're using the phrase "normally." There are high liquidity markets and low liquidity markets. And everyone knows that the bond market is more liquid than the stock market. If anything, it isn't "normal" for money to be in stock market...

As for whether a recession will happen, mere speculation. Smooth U.S. Recession Probabilities haven't changed...

Then again, the purpose of speculation is to seek risk. If investors wish to deal with market risk and liquidity risk by investing in longer-dated securities, that is their job...

 

This is a very interesting question. Where is the money After long consideration I came to the conclusion that money is either in currency or bank ledgers.

 

How does that alleviate your desire to get subsidized by others?
Will you cut their lawns in return?

 

Same lazy habits that prevent them from being successful, prevent them from eating properly.

How many smoke and drink, vacation in Cancuun, have lots of electronic gadgets, cable, internet, wear fancy clothes and shoes, have lots of tattoos, attend sporting events and concerts, etc., diverting money that could be spent on healthy food?

 

I already have a good job, thank you. I, personally, have no desire to take from others without giving in return.

Answer me this, is it okay for the rich to be greedy, and do ANYTHING they can, within the law, to get other people's money?

If your answer is YES, then all I can say is, right back at you. If the rich can be greedy, so can the poor.

 

Duplicate

 

Try a leading indicator.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf

And yes. Investors are fleeing to the safety of bonds. Isn't that what this thread is about?

 

This has nothing to do with a guy making more than you getting taxed at higher rates.

 

Treasury spreads is only one indicator. Smooth U.S. Recession probabilities looks at multiple, which includes non-farm payrolls, 5-year breakevens and GDP growth. Based on these factors, recession probability is at historic lows.

If the Yield curve dropped the lowest levels since a recession, and a recession hasn't occurred, then a recession isn't going to occur.

No... That's not what this thread is about...

And you just previously stated, "The money normally going into the market is going into long term bonds." Which is it...

 

The yield curve is a leading indicator, while your probability numbers are not.

I could have sworn I saw the original poster point out that investers were putting their money into cash and fixed assets and not in equities.

Good we at least cleared that one up.[/QUOTE]

 

When it gets parked out of equities much of it gets parked in funds which hold collections of different kinds of debt paper including very short term government debt (gd), short term gd, medium term gd, long term gd (30-year paper), sundry municipal gd paper, and corporate debt paper.

Then the market theoretical physicists have their derivatives, the black hole of the investment markets.

 

Irrelevant. If the indicator is inaccurate, then it's inaccurate. Statistics is about what you can prove; not about what is considered a leading indicator.

The statistics shows a low probability of U.S. recession, based on coincident economic data.

Read again.

 

"Powell: Fed is not 'at all' expecting a recession, saying economy continues to 'perform well'"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-no-recession-expected-at-all-u-s/2232221001/

 

You need look no further than his chart.

 

It seems the market prefers the yield curve.

Stocks get hammered as bond market’s warning spooks investors

https://business.financialpost.com/...-of-day-as-economy-worries-mount-markets-wrap

 

He is using the charts to illustrate a point that is different from the conclusions you have reached...

 

Equities and yields have an inverse relationship. It's unclear the conclusion you have reached here...