Study: States With High Murder Rates More Likely To Be Republican

I came across this video today. In my opinion political partisanship is not a determining factor on one's propensity to commit crimes or in this case murder. I do believe the political policies that are enacted can influence those numbers. So I was a bit surprised to see the conclusions of this study. I am not so much interested in the actual number of republicans and democrats in the states but that these states that enact tough republican policies still have higher murder rates.

I just found a link to the group that did the study and I will try to read it later when I have time.
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red-state-murder-problem

 

Great article!

But the data clearly paint a different story. The increase in murders is not a liberal cities problem but a national problem. Murder rates are actually higher in Republican, Trump-voting states that haven’t even flirted with ideas like defund the police. Eight of the ten most lawless, high-murder states are not only Trump-voting states, but GOP bastions for the last quarter of a century. A more accurate conclusion from the data is that Republicans do a far better job blaming others for high murder rates than actually reducing high murder rates.
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I have suspected this for some time. I am glad someone finally looked at the numbers and published it.

 

I try to point it out as often as possible and I guess I have to do it again:

Comparing entire states is just not valid. You can't lump entire states along a single political line. It's just not valid. We know who commits the majority of the violent crime in this country. We have plenty of data on it. We also know where this violent crime is committed.

There's a reason you only see lefties making comparisons between states, it's because it suits their narrative. Of course, these conclusions are statistically not valid because lumping entire states along political lines is not valid. The reason is simple, no state is so overwhelmingly one sided (not even NY or CA) that lumping them all into one political party is reasonable.

 

Here are the numbers from Wiki, are you going to say the numbers are racist or that merely posting those numbers here is racist? So when you said everything is the fault of black and brown people, wiki made sure to have your back.

According to the FBI, African-Americans accounted for 55.9% of all homicide offenders in 2019, with whites 41.1%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_States

 

Highest murder rate by city worldwide, Detroit, St Louis and Baltimore are killing and made it into the top 50. And of the top 50 cities worldwide with the highest murder rate, the overwhelming majority of them are brown. Once again, wiki has proven the person who made post #3 to be correct. He’s on a roll.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_homicide_rate

 

Actually this is where we disagree. The reason is because states pass laws that can impact the level of crimes like murder. They can have a death penalty etc... They can pass open carry laws which can deter crime. That is why the numbers surprised me.

 

I won't get into the racist battle but I think something you need to consider is the race is just a cross correlation factor for why crime is happening. It is not a determining factor. That is the same argument I use when I say republicans are NOT anti vaccine. Political party is not a determining factor BUT it cross correlates with other factors that may cause lower vaccine use such as geographical location, (rural vs urban).

 

If you are pointing out that crime is committed in urban areas that is nothing new. I am sure if we compared ancient Rome with rural Italy the crime rate was much higher.

The question I think we should be looking at here is, are Republican controlled states able to pass laws and legislation that impact crime in their state. If the answer is it makes no difference then crime is no longer a political agenda item because we are admitting it makes not difference who is in charge.

 

ah! this chart uses----- per-capita to get a murder rate. instead of the actual numbers which tells a very different story. like in many blue states, ny-ca-mi,wa,org, where the murder ---numbers--- show the real deaths in that state. the numbers of actual people killed has doubled, or tripled, under blue control. where as the real numbers of murders in red states, in cities controlled by liberal mayors & consuls is where the death numbers are doubling & tripling. imv

 

Prove that passing laws affects murder rate. I think that's absurd. I don't think murderers are paying attention to what's going on in their particular state governments.....not even a little bit.

 

I agree that the majority of the responsibility falls on the people of the community to fix. In that sense I agree that the problem is complex. I did however believe that tougher, "War on Crime" type policies worked. Freer gun laws make a positive difference. Now we are saying it makes no difference who is in charge. Soft on crime, tough on crime, it makes no difference. Only societal influences like urban density, opportunity etc...

 

That's the whole point. You cannot legislate crime away. There are a whole host of factors both economic and social that contribute to it, but those arguments don't lend themselves to political slogans or memes.

 

Isn't per capita the better measure in this case? If you go for aggregate numbers the results would always be skewed to the most populous states.

 

So you are on the side that tougher laws will not impact murder rates. Hiring more police or judges make no difference. Building more prisons and incarcerating more felons is not going to make a difference. Those are all policies politicians run on.

To be honest I would agree with you on some of those points.

 

Study: States With High Murder Rates More Likely To Be Republican

You failed to finish the sentence.
But they tend to occur in the metropolitan areas which are controlled by the democrats.

 

It is a cultural problem but law enforcement can help. Back in the day it was the Italian and Irish mafias who were doing all the killing. When they got stomped on they made their criminal enterprises more quiet, i.e. no more drive by wholesale slaughtering or leaving bodies where they can be found in order to send a message. I believe a lot of today’s murders are due to the drug trade and some folks haven’t been stomped on hard enough for them to tone down their business.

 

I can agree with this statement so long as it doesn't revert to the old familiar tropes we constantly see when this subject comes up.

Right now, the biggest issue is housing costs. How do we make renting and owning a home more affordable?

 

The TOO EASY ACCESS TO GUNS IS THE MAIN PROBLEM AS OVER 80% of violent crimes are committed with guns.

 

I don't consider hiring more police in the category of 'passing laws'. Incarcerating felons longer and more often would decrease it in the sense they'd be off the streets, but that's it. But I don't believe passing a law is going to make someone rethink committing a murder.

 

If guns were the problem rural america would be over run with crime. Why does this have to be constantly pointed out to you? Why do you keep pushing your agenda that isn't based on any relevant fact?

Do you actually think that taking a gun out of a criminals hand (which you can't do anyway, they'll get them one way or the other) is going to all of the sudden prevent them from committing a violent crime? Violent criminals will commit violent crime one way or the other. It's shocking to see how naive people can be on this subject.

 

Here’s a list of the most deadly cities in America. Most, if not all, are democrat run cities, not sure if that’s part of the problem, but I’d say it is.

20-25 years ago Albuquerque was considered one of the best cities in the country, today it’s a murderous and crime filled hell hole. When I moved to NM seven years ago I asked WTF happened and the most common answer is failed leadership and liberal leadership.


The twenty cities with the highest violent crime rates (number of incidents per 100,000 people) are:

1. St. Louis, MO (2,082)
2. Detroit, MI (2,057)
3. Baltimore, MD (2,027)
4. Memphis, TN (2,003)
5. Little Rock, AR (1,634)
6. Milwaukee, WI (1,597)
7. Rockford, IL (1,58
8. Cleveland, OH (1,557)
9. Stockton, CA (1,415)
10. Albuquerque, NM (1,369)
11. Springfield, MO (1,339)
12. Indianapolis, IN (1,334)
13. Oakland, CA (1,299)
14. San Bernardino, CA (1,291)
15. Anchorage, AK (1,203)
16. Nashville, TN (1,13
17. Lansing, MI (1,136)
18. New Orleans, LA (1,121)
19. Minneapolis, MN (1,101)
20. Chicago, IL (1,099)

St. Louis, Missouri has the highest violent crime rate in the United States of 2,082 incidents per 100,000 people. The murder rate is 64.9 per 100,000, with a total of 205 people murdered in 2017. Certain parts of the city, specifically East St. Louis have an increased likelihood of violence due to unsafe housing, a poor school system, and a failing economy.

Some cities on the list, such as Minneapolis and Oakland, have problematically high rape and robbery rates that are worse than their murder rates. Minneapolis had 122 reported rapes and 434 robberies in 2017. Oakland’s robbery rate in 2017 was 630 incidents per 100,000 people.


https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-violent-cities-in-america

 

How do you stop it? Want to go back to stop and frisk and check people for guns?